By Dalton Del Don – Senior Writer
1. New York Mets 92-70
Overview: The Mets are due for a moderate decline after increasing their win total by 14 games from the previous season last year. Plus, Pedro Martinez will be out until August and won’t be 100 percent upon his return. Still, New York sports the best offense in the Senior Circuit and has a pitching staff capable of keeping them in games. I underrated this squad last year because of that mediocre pitching, but the scoreboard should light up this year at Shea, because guys like David Wright and Jose Reyes are only going to get better.
Hitting: After a couple of years as a sample, it’s clear Willie Randolph is one of the game’s worst tactical managers. If he hits Paul Lo Duca second and keeps playing Shawn Green over Lastings Milledge, the gap between the Mets and the rest of the NL East will narrow. If he comes to his senses sooner rather than later, the division is theirs for the taking. Jose Reyes is a legitimate MVP candidate this season and shouldn’t last past the second pick of your fantasy draft, while David Wright figures to compete for the award one of these years as well. Speaking of MVP candidates, Carlos Beltran looked like last year’s deserved winner until a horrid September ruined his chances. Still, his awesome 99/95 K/BB ratio for a slugger suggests he’s officially back as one of the game’s elite hitters and an improvement in BA this year appears likely. Moises Alou can’t be counted on for more than 125 games, but he’s still a force when in the lineup.
Pitching: On paper, there’s not a whole lot to be excited about here. However, it’s a unit that does well enough to let the offense win games. Martinez is progressing nicely in his rehab and could be a major factor come playoff time, while Tom Glavine and John Maine provide stability. El Duque’s injury right before the postseason last year might very well have been the difference of them not making the World Series, as he’s still a guy that you want on the mound in October. Mike Pelfrey figures to only get better as the year moves along, and Oliver Perez, although likely to remain inconsistent and his fastball isn’t all the way back, has absolutely dealt this spring.
2. Atlanta Braves 88-74 — WILD CARD
Overview: After failing to reach the postseason for the first time in 15 years last season, the Braves’ fall from grace may be short lived. A battle for the final playoff spot among the Braves, Phillies and Cubs should come down to the very end, but Atlanta ultimately comes out on top. Although playing in a difficult NL East won’t make things easy.
Hitting: This could turn out to be a sneakily productive lineup. Kelly Johnson should be on base at a fairly high clip, and it’s now clear Edgar Renteria prefers calling the NL home. Chipper Jones remains a Hall of Famer when in the batter’s box, but it’s best to only expect 120 games out of him. Although Andruw Jones’ defensive prowess is declining, he’s playing for a huge contract this season, so expect him to be highly motivated. Brian McCann could easily finish with a higher OPS than any other catcher in baseball this year, but Jeff Francoeur’s pathetic OBP hurts. While not sexy on paper, the platooning of Scott Thorman/Craig Wilson and Matt Diaz/Ryan Langerhans at first base and left field, respectively, could prove fruitful.
Pitching: No team improved their bullpen situation more than the Braves did this offseason. Bob Wickman is still effective enough, especially when asked to only throw one inning at a time and always entering with no men on base, and bringing in both Rafael Soriano and Mike Gonzalez gives Atlanta one of the better back ends of the pen in the game. The rotation should be improved over last year’s as well. John Smoltz remains a Cy Young candidate, and Tim Hudson went back to lifting weights six times a week during the offseason after previously being unable to because of oblique issues. He’s determined to bounce back and an ERA in the 3.80-4.00 range should be expected. Chuck James is a solid No. 3 guy, and Kyle Davies will eventually join them and solidify the bottom of the rotation.
3. Philadelphia Phillies 87-75
Overview: Despite my prediction of them barely missing the playoffs, this team has the talent to go as far as anyone this year. Two top-flight starters and a lineup that figures to put runs on the board makes them dangerous, but ultimately a shaky bullpen and poor moves by GM Pat Gillick means Philadelphia falls just short.
Hitting: Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley and Ryan Howard form a tremendous top half of the order, but the bottom half has some holes. For a team with World Series aspirations, it seems like Gillick could have done better than Wes Helms to fill a position of great need. Aaron Rowand and Pat Burrell figure to spend some time on the shelf, but this should be a productive lineup overall.
Pitching: Well, Philadelphia’s problem of choosing which guy out of the six options to move to the bullpen ended in a hurry, as Freddy Garcia and Jon Lieber have both already succumbed to injury. Garcia’s lack of velocity is more than just a little worrisome, and Jamie Moyer and Adam Eaton are middling options. The duo of Brett Myers and Cole Hamels, however, is about as good as it gets and would make this team extremely tough in a short playoff series. Myers got in shape during the offseason and looks poised to finish with the best numbers of his career this year. If Hamels could be counted on to hold up physically, this team becomes very dangerous. Especially with Tom Gordon’s health concerns, the bullpen is a weak spot.
4. Florida Marlins 78-84
Overview: Projecting a team as solid as the Marlins to finish fourth shows just how deep and solid the NL East is right now. Florida’s rebuilding phase looks to be much shorter than originally anticipated, and they should be able to contend for a playoff spot as soon as next season. This year, however, expect more growing pains.
Hitting: Hanley Ramirez and Dan Uggla should show some regression after surprisingly good rookie campaigns, and Jeremy Hermida’s future remains cloudy after recently suffering yet another injury. Miguel Cabrera will have a monster .340-40-140 season one of these years, and it could happen as soon as this one.
Pitching: Maybe pitching in the WBC was to blame, but Dontrelle Willis should rebound from last year’s poor effort. Losing Josh Johnson for a chunk of the year hurts, and the bullpen is more than a little wet behind the ears. Still, Scott Olsen and Anibal Sanchez have very bright futures, so this rotation could be dominant in years to come.
5. Washington Nationals 61-101
Overview: If you want to watch some good baseball this year, avoiding Nationals games may be the best method. The loss of Nick Johnson shouldn’t be surprising, but it’s a huge blow nevertheless. Fans of Washington could be dealing with anger issues of Vanilla Ice proportions by season’s end.
Hitting: Ryan Zimmerman can hit, but an RBI decrease is in store for him this year after sporting an unrealistic BA with RISP last season and Christian Guzman slated to bat second in the lineup. Nice to see Da Meat Hook back in the league.
Pitching: After John Patterson, things get ugly in a hurry. There’s at least a decent chance that Chad Cordero gets moved in the middle of the season, which would open the door for Jon Rauch to close. Despite pitching in RFK Stadium, Washington’s team ERA figures to be well below average.
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