By Dalton Del Don – Senior Writer
1. St. Louis Cardinals 89-73
Overview: It’s safe to say the Cardinals made baseball history last season – becoming the first team ever to win the World Series while simultaneously declining in wins more than any other team in the league from the previous season. Rarely do I look at coaching in baseball when deciding where each team will finish, but the Tony La Russa and Dave Duncan combo easily gives the Cards an advantage over Sweet Lou.
Hitting: It’s not as powerful as past Cardinals lineups, especially when Jim Edmonds and Scott Rolen can’t be counted on to stay healthy. Still, it will be efficient enough, and having Albert the Great in the middle of the order makes such a huge difference. Chris Duncan may smack 30 homers even while sitting against southpaws. Adam Kennedy is an upgrade at second base, improving an already stellar infield defense.
Pitching: In Chris Carpenter and Albert Pujols, St. Louis may have two of the three most valuable players in baseball (Johan Santana being the other). Anchoring a young staff, Carpenter should make another run at the Cy Young this season. Letting Jeff Suppan get overpaid elsewhere and jettisoning Jason Marquis were the right moves, and Anthony Reyes and Adam Wainwright both appear ready to step right in and succeed. The back end of the rotation doesn’t look so great, but Jason Isringhausen figures to return to form after hip surgery ended his season prematurely last year.
2. Chicago Cubs 87-75
Overview: Chicago is the sexy pick in the NL this year, and after overlooking last year’s version (the Mets), I don’t want to do it again. Still, in order to reach their projected over/under win total, they’d need to improve a whopping 20 games from last season. The Alfonso Soriano and Ted Lilly additions were nice, but let’s not hand them over the World Series ring just yet.
Hitting: The healthy returns of Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez are just as big as the Soriano acquisition. A Matt Murton/Cliff Floyd platoon should be productive, and Michael Barrett is in line for a career-year before entering free agency. Mark DeRosa fits better as a platoon guy, however, and Cesar Izturis is on the field purely for his glove. Overall, it’s a lineup that should have no problem putting runs on the board and should keep them in the playoff hunt until the very end. When they fall just short.
Pitching: Carlos Zambrano finished last season with a 3.42 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP despite issuing 11 more walks than any other pitcher in baseball. If control is supposed to improve with age, Zambrano hasn’t gotten the memo, as he’s only regressed over the past few years. Still, that just shows how dominant he is, as he was still extremely successful even while issuing 4.8 free passes per nine innings. Once he harnesses that control, and the year before he tests the free agent market like this season is as good as any, expect a serious run at the Cy Young. Ted Lilly and Rich Hill are solid options in the middle of the rotation, but Jason Marquis and Wade Miller form a middling bottom half. Put a fork in Mark Prior and Kerry Wood, they’re done.
3. Milwaukee Brewers 79-83
Overview: Milwaukee has the makings of a solid nucleus, and it’s possible they hang around the playoff picture into the second half of the season this year.
Hitting: Rickie Weeks is going to approach 30/30 one of these years, but his inability to stay healthy remains a concern. Prince Fielder should start making All-Star appearances by 2008, and the team has a surplus of outfield options, including fantasy sleeper Corey Hart. Look for Kevin Mench or Geoff Jenkins to be moved at some point.
Pitching: Whether or not Ben Sheets can avoid the disabled list this season will have a great affect on Milwaukee’s place in the standings. It’s nice to see the team spending money, but signing Jeff Suppan for $42 million qualifies as not doing it wisely. The bullpen is loaded with power arms, but it’ll need Derrick Turnbow to bounce back and Jose Capellan to finally live up to his potential.
4. Houston Astros 77-85
Overview: With a full year of Carlos Lee, a healthy season from Morgan Ensberg and Chris Burke manning center field, the lineup will be improved from last year. The pitching, however, took a drastic step backward, letting pittance get in the way of retaining Andy Pettitte and the likely departure of Roger Clemens.
Hitting: During 236 road at-bats last year, Craig Biggio posted a line of .178/.253/.288. The sooner he reaches the 3,000-hit mark and moves on, the better for this franchise. Moving Burke to second and handing over the center field job to Hunter Pence seems like the obvious move to make, but as often happens with baseball decisions, it’s likely to come six months too late. Lance Berkman and Carlos Lee form a nice one-two punch, but Adam Everett (.239/.290/.352) and Brad Ausmus (.230/.308/.285) are two of the weakest hitters in the game. So when playing on the road, Houston is basically employing three of the very worst hitters in baseball in their eight lineup spots.
Pitching: Roy Oswalt’s tumbling strikeout rate may not catch up to him this year (he has decreased his walk rate), but he is a pitcher showing signs of decline. After Oswalt, things get downright gruesome. GM Tim Purpura was on the wrong end of the Jason Jennings/Jason Hirsch trade, and Woody Williams’ flyball tendencies won’t play well in Houston. While Wandy may be my favorite name in all of sports, Rodriguez isn’t a very good pitcher. Brad Lidge still has his velocity, but his ability to locate is all but gone. The Astros are in trouble.
5. Cincinnati Reds 77-85
Overview: Full of free swingers, the Reds’ lineup has plenty of power but make it hard on themselves by striking out so frequently. Ken Griffey Jr.’s move to right field was long overdue, as his defense has regressed a great deal more than his sagging offense.
Hitting: Whether or not Brandon Phillips can build off last year’s breakout campaign is a big factor in Cincy’s offense this season. Griffey has no business occupying the third spot in the lineup, but he’ll continue to do so when not injured. Hopefully Adam Dunn’s monstrous spring carries over into the regular season. Either way, he’s an extremely valuable offensive force, despite all of those strikeouts and a batting average often in the .240 range. Edwin Encarnacion becomes a household name by season’s end. I’m rooting for Josh Hamilton.
Pitching: In Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo, they have a top of a rotation capable of winning 35 games this year. Once Homer Bailey is up for good, their top-3 becomes rock solid. The rest of the staff, however, is uninspiring, including the bullpen.
6. Pittsburgh Pirates 66-96
Overview: Their young rotation is something to build on, but once again Pittsburgh fans don’t have a whole lot to get excited about entering 2007.
Hitting: In Chris Duffy, Jack Wilson and Freddy Sanchez, the Pirates’ top three hitters in their order COMBINED for 16 home runs last season. Adam LaRoche was a fine acquisition, but last season is likely to go down as a career-year, and PNC Park is rough on left-handed power hitters. If Jason Bay spends one game batting in the fifth spot, where he’s currently penciled in, then Jim Tracy is even crazier than I gave him credit for. Maybe he thinks having the team’s best player receive fewer at-bats throughout the season is the way to go? Or possibly it’s that he feels Bay’s .396 OBP works better lower in the lineup? Or giving the opposing pitcher an easier route to pitching around him, maybe that’s it.
Pitching: Ian Snell looks like the club’s ace, but Zach Duke also is a candidate to bounce back after a terrible sophomore campaign. Tom Gorzelanny could outpitch everyone on the staff this year, but he has health concerns. If the team doesn’t finish last in the NL Central, it will be because of pitching, not offense.
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