By Dalton Del Don – Senior Writer
1. Los Angeles Angels 92-70
Overview: Although Oakland remains solid, the Angels find themselves in the easiest division in the American League, and with a superior starting rotation, they should be able to cruise to the division title.
Hitting: Not the team’s strong point, Los Angeles’ lineup figures to struggle scoring runs. Has there ever been a signing that was regretted sooner than Gary Mathews Jr.? Vladimir Guerrero remains a force, but surrounding him with declining veterans like Garret Anderson and Shea Hillenbrand, it’s any wonder why a pitcher would throw a ball within feet of the strike zone to the free-swinging slugger. The Angels do, however, have some talented young bats. Howie Kendrick is going to win more than one batting title during his career, and the sooner Mike Scioscia moves him higher in the order, the better. Casey Kotchman should bounce back after mono ruined his season last year, and Kendry Morales is ready to step in and produce as well. Brandon Wood can flat-out rake.
Pitching: Losing Bud Black is of some concern, but this rotation can match any other in the game. Health however could be a stumbling block, as Jered Weaver begins the year on the DL, and Kelvim Escobar is always a threat to join him. John Lackey is turning into an ace, and even with Weaver’s expected regression, he’s still going to be extremely tough to hit – righties hit .174 against him last year. Ervin Santana is only getting better, and anything they get from Bartolo Colon is gravy. Their bullpen is equally as dominant.
2. Oakland Athletics 88-74
Overview: Anyone who follows baseball knows never to count the A’s out, and the losses of Barry Zito and Frank Thomas aren’t quite as crushing as most make of it. Especially when you factor in the additions of a healthy Rich Harden and Mike Piazza. Oakland has beaten the over/under on the oddsmakers’ wins projections six years in a row; count on them making it seven (85.5 O/U).
Hitting: So let me get this straight, the A’s are paying Mark Kotsay $15 million over the next two years, and the center fielder waits until spring training to address his chronic back issue with surgery? The A’s still do have some firepower, but healthy seasons from Eric Chavez and Bobby Crosby are becoming increasingly unlikely. The same could be said for Milton Bradley (and Dan Johnson). Mike Piazza hit .332/.372/.564 when not playing at Petco Park last year, and in a full-time DH role, a big season should follow. There isn’t a hitter in all of baseball that leaves less up to chance than Nick Swisher, who either walked, struck out or homered (baseball’s three “true” outcomes) in a remarkable 44 percent of his plate appearances last year.
Pitching: Maybe the injuries have been of the fluke variety, but it’s hard to expect a 200-inning season from Harden. If he did reach that mark, however, he could easily finish as the league’s second best starter behind Johan Santana. In fact, Harden’s stuff is so good, he has the ability to finish as the game’s best hurler. Dan Haren is one of the better pitchers no one talks about, and it’s safe to say GMs should stop returning Billy Beane’s phone calls. The pen is another strength in Street, Duchscherer and Calero, but the bottom half of the rotation should be the team’s undoing. Esteban Loaiza is already dealing with shoulder pain, while the Joes (Blanton and Kennedy) have been getting rocked this spring.
3. Seattle Mariners 78-84
Overview: Horacio Ramirez for Rafael Soriano? Miguel Batista for $25 million? Jose Vidro and his bloated contract for Chris Snelling and Emiliano Fruto? Yep, Bill Bavasi is one of the worst in the business.
Hitting: Ichiro could be in store for a big year with dollar signs in his head, and the 96 percent stolen base success rate he had last year was unreal. Still, opposed to fantasy baseball, his .786 OPS just isn’t all that valuable in real life. Adrian Beltre thrived in the two-hole last year, and he’s still only 27 years old, so another season approaching his 2004 campaign could happen one of these years. It would be safest not to expect a repeat of Ibanez’s career-year last season, but he’s showing no signs of letting up during spring. Richie Sexson, Kenji Johjima and the newly acquired Jose Guillen round out a lineup that might be the best in the division.
Pitching: Even if King Felix lives up to the hype, and I firmly believe he will as soon as this season, the rest of the staff is an utter disaster. If Miguel Batista put up a 4.58 ERA, 1.53 WHIP and a 110/84 K/BB ratio in the NL, there’s no telling how ugly it could get in the AL (although he did improve ballparks). Jarrod Washburn, Jeff Weaver and Horacio Ramirez are basically all No. 4 and No. 5 starters being asked to fill the role of No. 2 and No. 3 hurlers. J.J. Putz’s health better be sound, because there’s not a whole lot to like after him in the pen.
4. Texas Rangers 78-84
Overview: While nearly every Ranger takes advantage of batting in such a hitter-friendly environment in Texas, Mark Teixeira had an OPS nearly 200 points higher when on the road last year. His season was an aberration any way you look at it, so expect a return to 40-45 bombs this year.
Hitting: Kenny Lofton was a sneaky addition, but the Rangers will be counting on big bounce back seasons from Blalock and Brad Wilkerson if they hope to contend in the division. Sammy Sosa knocked out five homers during spring, but it came largely against minor league pitching, and his decline in 2005 was precipitous, slugging just .386 in 380 at-bats.
Pitching: While Texas is a hitter’s paradise, it’s a pitcher’s nightmare, and not just from the obvious stats standpoint; pitching in that heat takes a toll, and it’s quite common for Rangers’ hurlers to wear down over the second half of the season more so than most. Brandon McCarthy was a fine acquisition, but his fantasy value is all but gone pitching in a park that should result in gopheritis. Eric Gagne is never going to be the same pitcher he once was, and with him DL-bound entering the season, it’s safe to wonder whether he can even return to being mildly effective. Akinori Otsuka currently looks like the better bet.
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