By Dalton Del Don – Senior Writer
Editor’s Note: The following is a condensed version of an article I wrote for RotoWire. I only cover the Giants, so don’t expect 29 more of these. Additionally, I’m going to really start concentrating on baseball now, so look for some rankings and further columns during this week.
The Giants finished third in a mediocre NL West last year, stumbling to a 1-9 finish over the final 10 games. San Francisco has been playing in “win now” mode for the last few seasons, consistently trading younger prospects for older veterans in hopes of immediate returns. Although mortgaging the future for a team led by Barry Bonds isn’t necessarily a bad idea, the problem is that it hasn’t worked even in the short-term, as the Giants have failed to reach the postseason since 2003.
It was more of the same during the offseason, as GM Brian Sabean again mostly targeted aging vets, with Barry Zito being the key exception. While the length of the deal is highly questionable, a rotation led by Zito, Matt Cain and Noah Lowry at least gives the Giants hope, but in the end, expect a run at the wild card to ultimately fall short.
Major Offseason Moves:
Transaction: Re-signed Barry Bonds to a one-year, $15.8 million deal.
Comment: Bonds found very little interest for his services over the winter and after some language in his contract delayed the inevitable, eventually re-signed with San Francisco for one more year. He finished last season with his lowest OPS since 1991 but seemed to get healthier as the year wore on. Over the last two months of the season, he returned to hitting like one of the very best players in the game, with a 1.080 OPS. After offseason surgery to remove troublesome bone chips from his elbow and also one more year removed from knee surgery, it’s possible Bonds will be a force next year. Just realize he’s only likely to play 120-140 games, and the lineup around him is pretty weak.
Transaction: Re-signed Ray Durham to a two-year, $14.5 million deal.
Comment: At age 34, Durham turned in a career year last season, setting personal highs with 26 homers, 93 RBI and an .898 OPS. His defense is eroding, but the Giants elected to bring him back on a two-year contract. Despite constant leg issues, Durham has been able to approach 500 at-bats for consecutive seasons and has displayed remarkable plate discipline over that time. The fact that he no longer steals bases really curtails his fantasy value, but he’s likely to bat directly behind Barry Bonds next year — a very nice situation to be in.
Transaction: Signed Dave Roberts to a three-year, $18 million deal.
Comment: Roberts seems to be saving his best seasons for late in his career. He followed up a career year in 2005 with an even better campaign in 2006. He set career highs in seven major offensive categories, including steals (49). Roberts does require occasional rest (he has never played more than 129 games in a season), but is a capable base-stealer and leadoff man. He’ll likely start in centerfield and hit leadoff for the Giants, who were in dire need of a base-stealing threat after ranking 26th in the league in steals in 2006.
Transaction: Signed Barry Zito to a seven-year, $126 million deal.
Comment: Zito appears to be a pitcher in decline, with a regressing strikeout rate per nine innings (6.89, 6.74, 6.14) and an increasing walk rate per nine innings (3.42, 3.51, 4.03) over the last three seasons. Still, he’s extremely durable, and a move to the NL with the Giants greatly improves his future outlook. Switching to the NL, AT&T Park and one of the most pitcher-friendly divisions in all of baseball, Zito has an excellent chance to post his best statistical season yet.
Projected Lineups/Rotation/Bullpen:
Lineup (vs. RH/vs. LH):
1. CF Dave Roberts
2. SS Omar Vizquel
3. RF Randy Winn/1B Rich Aurilia
4. LF Barry Bonds
5. 2B Ray Durham
6. 1B Ryan Klesko/RF Randy Winn
7. 3B Pedro Feliz
8. C Benjie Molina
The Dave Roberts acquisition provides a much-needed aspect of speed to a team previously bereft of base-stealing ability. Last year, the Giants hit .259, which amounted to 13th overall. The loss of Moises Alou hurts, but it’s still a lineup capable of scoring runs. The extreme righty/lefty splits of Rich Aurilia and Ryan Klesko allows for quite a bit of tinkering, something new manager Bruce Bochy figures to do throughout the season. Ultimately, it comes down to Barry Bonds, who is still capable of dramatically affecting the way a pitcher attacks the lineup if he can stay healthy this season.
Starting Rotation:
1. Barry Zito
2. Matt Cain
3. Matt Morris
4. Noah Lowry
5. Jonathan Sanchez/Russ Ortiz
Barry Zito has never missed a major league start in seven seasons and will anchor a rotation featuring Matt Morris and youngsters Matt Cain and Noah Lowry. Morris should rebound after suffering a serious rib injury midway through 2006, while Lowry never fully recovered from a strained oblique he suffered early on. Cain had a brilliant second half after faltering early, including a stretch in which he allowed just one run over 42 innings. Expect improvement from all three, although Morris’ days as a star are probably over.
CL: Armando Benitez
The bullpen’s 4.77 ERA last year was second worst in the National League, and San Francisco did little over the offseason to address the weakness. Benitez enters the year as the favorite to resume closing duties but also with plenty of question marks. He has pitched in only 71 games the past two years because of a hamstring injury, a sore elbow and arthritic knees on a less-than-lean body, and he spent the entire offseason rehabbing without even throwing a baseball. He reported to camp early with a good attitude but also overweight. If he gets hurt or traded, Brian Wilson, who impressed the Giants by closing well in winter ball, is the favorite to take over the ninth inning role.
Notes of Import, Fantasy and Otherwise:
As the Giants approach spring training, the biggest questions are:
What can we expect from Barry Bonds?
Bonds will be 43 on July 24, but he had a full winter to lose weight, had offseason elbow surgery to remove bone fragments and reportedly did extensive legwork to build up his lower-body strength after multiple knee surgeries. He started really coming on toward the end of last year, and the fact he is one more year removed from the knee surgery suggests he should be able to get off to a better start this year. He enters 22 homers shy of Hank Aaron’s all-time homer mark of 755 and is the key to the Giants’ season. When in the lineup, he’s still one of a handful of the most dangerous hitters in the game; how often he’s in the lineup, however, may be the determining factor of the Giants making the postseason or not.
Who’s the closer?
For someone with a 3.51 ERA, Armando Benitez had about as much of a maligned season as possible. Most of the criticism was deserved, however, because he pitched rather poorly, posting an awful 31:21 K:BB over 38.1 IP. He also blew nearly a third of his save opportunities, missing eight chances in 25. He’s still only 34 years old and has a career 2.95 ERA, but over the last two seasons with the Giants, he’s been constantly hurt and has a putrid 54:37 K:BB ratio. Benitez is a candidate to bounce back if his troublesome arthritic knees cooperate, but Brian Wilson is seemingly waiting in the wings to take over closing duties.
Wilson is a hard thrower who Brian Sabean says “has the stomach” for the rough closer chore and presumably the arm. Wilson showed his ability during winter ball as strictly a game-finisher. He posted a 3.86 ERA over his last 20 appearances last season, stranding 88.2 percent of inherited runners while holding the opposition to a .100 average with runners in scoring position. Wilson will see considerable duty in Arizona, and it’s possible he breaks camp in the closer’s role.
Who will round out the starting rotation?
A battle looms for the fifth spot in the starting rotation, as former Giants star Russ Ortiz will attempt a comeback after two poor seasons, but he must fight off promising youngster Jonathan Sanchez. Ortiz believes a flaw in his delivery contributed to his precipitous fall and now that it’s corrected, he can go back to being a solid innings-eater. Still, the odds are against him, as his 90:95 K:BB ratio over the last two years suggests a whole lot of work needs to be done. Sanchez, on the other hand, showed promise, posting a 1.37 ERA in nearly 20 innings out of the pen last year. He didn’t fare nearly as well when inserted into the rotation, but he’s just 24 years old and has the stuff to excel. Giants fans should be rooting for Sanchez to separate himself during spring training and enter the season in the rotation.
Strengths
Barry Bonds in the middle of the lineup and the top of the rotation featuring Barry Zito and Matt Cain.
Weaknesses
The bullpen looks like the biggest area of concern entering the year, with major health risks a close second since the team is so old. Also, the farm system is rather barren at this point.
Rising: Matt Cain, only 22, is on the path to stardom. His rookie season was inconsistent, as his command often fluctuated from start to start. Still, he was baseball’s best pitcher for a six-start stretch during August and September, allowing just one run over 42 innings (0.21 ERA), while fanning 43 batters, showing his enormous potential. Command is likely to remain an issue, given his 4.12 walks per nine innings, but Cain enters this year with the upside of a top-20 starter. His stuff is downright filthy.
Declining: Armando Benitez – see above.
Sleeper: Brian Wilson – see above.
Supersleeper: Tim Lincecum, the 10th overall pick from the 2006 draft, has a devastating curve and a fastball that can reach 100 mph. He averaged 14.3 K/9 in college but slipped in the draft because he’s a bit undersized. That certainly didn’t prove to be a problem in the minors last year, where he fanned 58 batters in 31.2 IP and compiled a 1.71 ERA. He projects as a No. 1 starter and could be ready to contribute as early as this year. If Lincecum dominates hitters during Cactus League play the way he has on every other level, the Giants will be tempted to stick him on the opening day roster. San Francisco plans to prepare Lincecum as a starter, but the Giants could also decide to use him as a reliever initially, possibly emerging as a save candidate. Just 5-foot-11 and 170 pounds, Lincecum makes up for his lack of size by using an unorthodox, highly leveraged delivery. Some scouts say he has the best curveball of any drafted player since Kerry Wood.
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