Drafting Pitching

By Robby Wellington – Staff Writer

Is it too soon for my first baseball article of the year? Probably. But one can only talk about Kevin Durant and The Hills for so long. Without further ado…

Baseball is the most involved and complicated of all the fantasy sports, and the draft is no different. Picking what pitchers to draft where depends on a variety of factors and strategies. In fact, in my league, a few of the past winners have incorporated interesting drafting strategies to get to the top. Here are a few…

Heavy Investment in Pitchers – This strategy is advisable in leagues where the innings cap is relatively low compared with the number of starting position players. For example, in a league with 13 starting roster spots and an innings cap of 1800, Albert Pujols will account for approximately 1/13 of your team’s at-bats while Johan Santana will account for more than 1/8 of your team’s innings pitched. However, pitchers tend to be more unpredictable and injury prone than position players, making them riskier picks at the top of the draft.

No Starters Strategy – A rather unique strategy, the owner grabs lower level closers who still offer good ERA and WHIP and then load up on middle relievers at the end of the draft. While this owner has punted two categories (wins and strikeouts) they should win the other three pitching categories (ERA, WHIP and saves) and have a dominant lineup that should be in the top of most categories. Punting two categories, however, leaves little room for error and makes winning very difficult in leagues that lack balance.

Starting Pitching Late & Spot Starting Strategy – Unlike position players, it is an easy and worthwhile strategy to start your pitchers based on matchups. Finding pitchers late in your draft who can get you 120-140 favorable innings (pitchers with good home parks or who perform well at home) and then supplementing them with spot starters throughout the year can yield solid results with a minimal investment in pitching.

A few other pitching issues to consider…

– In a daily league with no innings cap, investing in starting pitching (or decent closers) is laughable; go ahead and grab some low-level closers and then spot start pitchers.

– Middle relievers are valuable commodities; the combined stats of two good MRs can equal or surpass those of a top-10 starter and come at a much cheaper price. The only downside is the extra roster spot that is used up. If you’re in a league with a deep bench, grab a few of these guys late (don’t worry about spending a mid-round pick on Joel Zumaya when you can still get a good MR at the end of your draft, or off waivers).

– Just like you don’t want to be the first person to draft a kicker, you don’t want to be the first person to draft a closer in your league. Saves are unpredictable, so go ahead and grab some solid guys a few rounds later.


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12 responses to “Drafting Pitching”

  1. sir boss hog outlaw III Avatar
    sir boss hog outlaw III

    drafting no starting pitchers?? what kind of maniac would do that??

  2. Cole Avatar
    Cole

    I actually like the no SP strategy, but unfortunately my league incorporates a 600 innings minimum cap, so I can’t even try it.

  3. Keith Avatar
    Keith

    So much depends on the type of league and the settings. If it’s head-to-head, I think punting a category can be a really good idea. If there’s no min innings requirement, I like the closer/middle reliever strategy, and if your opponent is weak in starters, you can try to run a couple 2-start starters out there. I’ve never gone no-starters (more starter-light), but I could definitely see it being a viable strategy. Roto is tougher, because you can’t really punt any category, and that’s where the IP limit is critical. You can find a lot of good middle relievers out there who can put up 10+K/9 IP, and if you can get them to contribute 10-20% of that innings cap, it will be a big boost. I’m also usually not a fan of going after pitching early, usually targeting 2nd and 3rd tier pitchers who I think are going to break out big time. I had Webb, Patterson and Verlander on all my teams last year, all coming very cheap on draft day. Patterson ticked me off, but the rest worked out pretty well. I’m still trying to figure out who my targets are this year, but I’m definitely looking at Patterson again (though he’d probably be lucky to win 10 games), and I think Bonderman and Kazmir get pretty close to elite as well. I really like some of the young guys, like Hamels, Cain and Rich Hill, but I think they’re getting a lot of hype and might be going a little earlier than they should (though I’d still rather grab one of them than a low-upside veteran type).

  4. Jeremy Avatar
    Jeremy

    Yeah I agree with Keith. I try and draft one good starting pitcher around the 4th round or so and then start up with closers around the 6th depend on how the draft goes. I’m always on the lookout for closers with SP eligibility as well. Papelbon or Dempster from last year. Usually in my money league we have 3-4 good managers and 5 not so good ones that will end up over shooting the innings limit and will do a 2 for 1 or even a 3 for 1 late in the year that can net you a top starter and put you over the top in pitching categories. I know some people think closers are overrated based on the fact that saves are volatile, but you can always trade a closer late in the year, when they’re all gone and people start chasing saves, making them a bit more valuable. Anyway last year I realized I didn’t have a single starter from my draft about 3/4 of the way through the season.

  5. Jason Avatar

    It’s never too early to post a baseball article, especially since experts websites start publishing stuff in December.

    Punting a category works great in a 4×4 AL or NL only league. I have a mixed 5×5 12 team league and it has never worked.

  6. Keith Avatar
    Keith

    Jason, is that head-to-head or Roto? I would agree about Roto, because you just can’t afford to take a 1 in any cat and still compete, but I think it’s almost advisable to do it in a H2H league. If I can get a Reyes or Crawford in the 1st round (or Soriano, I suppose), I’d probably go for steals, but if they’re not around, I don’t really want to be putting Dave Roberts types in my weekly lineups, and if I find closers going off the board early, I might try and load up on starters to punt saves…though I will keep an eye out to see if someone is going for relievers ONLY. I just think H2H is about establishing some very clear strengths, which is why I think going heavy on offense (runs/power/avg), grabbing one solid starter, and then going good closers or middle relivers can be a very solid approach.

  7. Mr. Tintle Avatar
    Mr. Tintle

    I used to play for the Cleveland Steamers

  8. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    Good feedback…..I won two out of the last three years going heavy SP early, but that was with an 1800 innings cap…..If it’s yahoo general 1250, you can def. wait on them more so….Also, this year I don’t see myself doing it. There’s Santana, Carp and Peavy and then a bunch of crap-shoot high upside guys you can wait for in the middle rounds.

    I also won both those years punting saves (in roto), but I’m not sure I’ll do that again either….The problem with closers is that the position has such a big changeover each year. Something like 33% of the closers that start the year won’t be closing at year’s end. If I do draft some, I definitely wait on em. But despite my recent results, punting a category in roto does make things difficult. In H2H, I agree, it is the way to go.

  9. tv Avatar
    tv

    Bout time you post some baseball stuff lol.

    My money league is a 14 team 6×6 h2h auction league with 5 keepers.

    Going into the offseason I had the following guys to decide on:

    R. Howard
    C. Utley
    A. Rod
    T. Hafner
    J. Reyes
    G. Atkins
    J. Bay
    C. Carpenter
    J. Bonderman
    J. Lackey
    S. Kazmir
    M. Cain
    J. Papelbon

    I made a 4 for 3 swap of Howard, Reyes, Bay and A. Rod for Pujols, Mig Cabrera and Holliday plus $5 cap space. The guy that owns Santana is strongly considering Atkins and Hafner. If he does it my 5 keepers would be Pujols, Cabrera, Utley, Holliday and Santana. If not then I would keep Hafner.

    I really like Holliday and Cabrera this year so it made sense for me to make a 4 for 3 considering I had at least 8 potential keepers and I got Pujols in the deal but I hated to give up Reyes.

    Anyhow, I look forward to seeing more baseball talk coming.

    Re: pitching. I have never finished below 2nd overall in pitching and I have never kept more than one pitcher so I tend to agree that you can find enough upside guys later in the draft (or cheaper than you expected in an auction draft) to warrant not taking pitchers too early. Santana is the only starter I would consider taking before round 4 in a normal draft and I would never take a closer (or pay more than $20) for one due to the fact that you can find guys late and/or after the season starts. I think 6 or 7 guys finished the season as closers that weren’t even drafted in most leagues so as long as you are an active owner and pay attention you can wait until the last 3rd of the draft and get a couple of good closers that you can swap out for someone better should someone come around during the season.

  10. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    TV – Ya, it’s always good to trade more players for a bigger stud in return in keeper leagues when you have to dump a good talent anyway. Giving up Reyes had to be tough though. I think M. Cabrera is going to be huge this year.

  11. tv Avatar
    tv

    I tried everything not to include him but I figured that based on my eval I was getting three guys that are plus $20 (at least) cheaper than what I project their values to be at the end of the year. Holliday is very cheap in our league and I figure him to a top 5 guy this year…Pujols and Cabrera are my top 2 players on the board this year.

  12. Jason Avatar

    It’s Roto Keith. Mixed leagues changes the rules a bit.

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