RotoScoop.com

Apples and Oranges

By Robby Wellington – Staff Writer

How valuable are Jose Reyes’ steals? How much does Adam Dunn’s batting average hurt? These are some of the questions that owners must grapple with while drafting their teams and, more often than not, the answer is arbitrary and based on nothing more than intuition. But what if we were to assign values to different stats based on how frequently they occur and then find an overall value for every fantasy hitter? Well, let’s give it a shot…

Runs and RBI are basically worth the same, with home runs being about four times less common and, therefore, more valuable. Steals are about twice as rare as home runs. Factoring in batting average is a bit trickier, but look at it this way. In a league with ten position players, I figure that eight or so dingers is about as valuable as two points in team batting average. Therefore, ten points in batting average is worth five home runs. From these assumptions, we can derive an equation to roughly calculate a player’s value in 5X5 leagues:

(Stolen Bases * 8 ) + (Home Runs * 4) + RBI + Runs + ((BA – 280) * 2) = Player’s Value (let’s go ahead and call it The Robby Rating (RR))

Or, more simply put:

1 Stolen Base = 2 Home runs = 8 Runs/RBI = 2 Points in Batting Average.

Using this formula, Albert Pujols’ stat line from last season (49 HRs, 256 runs/RBI, 7 SBs and .331 BA) nets him an RR of 610 (691 prorated to a full season). Jose Reyes’ season, on the other hand, pulls in an astounding RR of 831, thanks primarily to his league leading 64 steals. Don’t underestimate the value of steals.

Adam Dunn’s .234 average drags his RR down to a mediocre 315, while light hitting Freddy Sanchez boasts an RR of 346 thanks primarily to his .344 average. Granted, these are rough estimates and approximations, but they help to flesh out the more valuable players when comparing apples and oranges.

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7 responses to “Apples and Oranges”

  1. Lister Avatar
    Lister

    In fairness, and I do love Reyes more than I love my moms so it’s hard to be fair, but, from a scouting POV, Reyes is far less likely to meet or exceed last year’s gaudy totals than Pujols is.

    That being said, Reyes has never had a comprehensively better offense around him than he will in 2007 (undoubtedly the #1 NL offense and it’s not even close), and he seems to have shaken off the “glass player” reputation that his first two years in the league produced. As a completely partisan Mets fan, however, I am keeping my fingers crossed.

    Good writing, RAWB.

  2. Robby Avatar
    Robby

    Another factor to consider with stolen bases is that they are an extremely fickle stat. A player could get caught a couple of times and lose the green light, tweak a hammy or a coach could just change philosophies. No stat is more controlled by the player’s own free will. I guess what I’m saying is that it’s harder to predict SBs and therefore, should be slightly devalued from the above formula…

  3. Lister Avatar
    Lister

    With the exception of injury, none of the possible causes above would affect Reyes. He is going to run. Neither Willie nor a few pick offs will stop that. He’s a dynamo.

  4. TV Avatar
    TV

    I think Reyes is great but I dont think he is going to put up similar or better numbers as he did last year. I think you are going to see a slight increase in power and a decrease in speed. I also question if he will make it through the entire season again. I predict a decrease in overall numbers for him.

  5. Randy H Avatar
    Randy H

    Your multipluer for steals is way to high. When one dimensional Juan Pierre scores a higher pro rated score than Ryan Howard, Berkman, Ortiz etc that can’t be right. The multiplier should be 4 , same as home runs. Then Pierres score goes from 619 to 395 which is more in reflection with the one dimensional fantasy player he is. Reyes score would come down to around 600 as well. Still a great score. When you hit a homeun thats at least 1 in three columns, R, HR, RBI, possibly more RBI if men are on base. No way steals are twice as valuable as that. I think using the same multiplier for both is more realistic in their overall scores. Just my thoughts.

  6. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    Good points Randy.

  7. Robby Avatar
    Robby

    Randy – I made steals twice as valuable as home runs because they are (at least) twice as rare in roto scoring. The fact that a home run contributes to runs, RBIs and average is moot, because those numbers are already factored into the player’s overall stats.
    That said, I do agree with you that I probably overrated steals. In hindsight, I would probably lower the multiplier to 6, because steals are the most unreliable of all the stats, and also, at least in my leagues, the steal category never seems to be as hotly contested as the other categories. For example, a swing of ten steals in either direction may only allow me to pass or get passed by a total of three or four opponents, while a similar swing in home runs may constitute a swing of three or four teams as well, even though home runs are twice as plentiful. But that all ties into trading deadline strategies, which is a long way off.
    Long story short, I overrated steals and you underrated them. Let’s compromise and call it 6. If that makes Juan Pierre more valuable than some mashers (hopefully not Howard, Berkman and Ortiz still, I’m too lazy to check) then so be it, it just means that SBs are criminally underrated in fantasy…

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