Wild Card Round Preview

By Dalton Del Don – Senior Writer

Kansas City (+7) at Indianapolis

Comments: On paper, the Chiefs’ run-heavy offense matches up perfectly with the Colts’ league-worst rush defense. If Larry Johnson doesn’t receive 30-35 carries, it would be a mild upset. Indy was the only team in the NFL to allow a 100-yard rusher in every single game this season. Still, Kansas City needed a series of improbable results to barely squeak into the postseason and is likely just happy to be here. I’m not a coach and don’t pretend to be, but it’s hard to justify Trent Green starting this game. He got 6.8 YPA with a 7/9 TD/INT ratio this season, while Damon Huard put up 7.7 YPA and an 11/1 TD/INT ratio. At a minimum, expect Green to have a short leash Saturday. The Colts were 8-0 at home this year, and the Chiefs were just 3-5 on the road. Kansas City seems to best fit the bill as this season’s lucky to be here team that gets blown out in Round 1.

COLTS 34-20.

Dallas (+3) at Seattle

Comments: Both teams enter 1-3 over their last four games and with severe secondary problems. While Dallas has given up 14 TD passes over the last month, Seattle comes in without Kelly Herndon and Marcus Trufant. It seems Terrell Owens, Terry Glenn, Jason Witten and Patrick Crayton are better equipped to take advantage than a depleted Seattle receiving corps. Seattle has proven tough to beat at home over the last few years, but Dallas has been equally successful on the road this season. The Cowboys have lost each of their last three home games and won each of their last three road tilts. Really, it’s hard to get excited about either team, as the Seahawks have allowed a staggering 49 sacks and also been outscored overall on the season, while the Cowboys’ Tony Romo has committed eight turnovers over the last four games. He still easily leads the league in YPA (8.6), but Seattle’s 12th man won’t make things easy for the signal caller’s first ever postseason start. This shootout won’t be decided until the final minutes.

COWBOYS 24-23.

New York Jets (+8.5) at New England

Comments: This point spread seems high considering the over/under (37.5) and the fact that New York just beat the Patriots in New England earlier this season. The Pats have been vulnerable at home (5-3) this year, while the Jets were a remarkable 6-2 on the road. Still, all that just means the Patriots will be focused, and expecting New York to win at Gillette Stadium a second time is probably too much to ask. Losing Rodney Harrison is a fairly big deal for the Pats’ defense, but it’s not like Chad Pennington will be able to take advantage of that downfield. New England ended the season winning six out of the last seven games and are getting somewhat overlooked, just the way they like it.

PATRIOTS 23-16.

New York Giants (+7) at Philadelphia

Comments: Another matchup featuring division rivals facing either other for the third time this season, with the teams splitting the two previous games. The Eagles enter as the NFC’s hottest team, winners of their past five games. Philly has been susceptible to the run at times, but has virtually shut down Tiki Barber, holding the back to just 3.2 YPC over two games. Still, the Giants will continue to focus their game plan around Barber, as he’s easily their best offensive weapon. The Eagles’ secondary is extremely underrated and faces a struggling Eli Manning, who is getting a ridiculous 3.4 YPA over the last two weeks. Jeremy Shockey also enters riddled by injuries. Jeff Garcia, on the other hand, enters getting 7.0 YPA with a 10/2 TD/INT ratio. It’s the system, folks. Sans Michael Strahan, teams are running directly at New York, so expect Brian Westbrook to do the same. The Giants have the talent to pull of an upset, but it’d take a drastic and highly unlikely turnaround from Manning. Instead, look for Philly to send Tiki into retirement, and Tom Coughlin into unemployment.

EAGLES 24-20.