By Dalton Del Don – Senior Writer
Indianapolis (+4) at Baltimore
Comments: Aside from Peyton Manning, Bob Sanders is proving to be the Colts’ second most valuable player, as the defense performs on an entirely different level with him in the lineup. It took Tony Dungy long enough, but Joseph Addai is finally getting all of the touches in Indy’s backfield. After a season in which he became the first running back ever to reach 1,000 rushing yards without starting a single game, Addai’s legs certainly looked fresh last week, as Dungy’s strategy resulted in the rookie not being overworked in the regular season. For all of the criticism heaped on Manning’s postseason performance, Marvin Harrison has just two touchdown catches in 11 career playoff games. Chris McAlister may be the best corner in the league right now, but Samari Rolle might be the worst, so expect Manning to pick on him Saturday.
The Colts shut down the run impressively last week, and it’s unclear if Jamal Lewis and his 3.6 YPC could take advantage of that soft front seven anyway. Still, Baltimore is the far more physical football team, and one I’ve been underrating all season long. The Ravens are 13-2 over their last 15 home games, while Indy has lost each of its last four road games. Steve McNair wasn’t anything special this year, but he saved his best football for last, as he got 7.8 YPA over the final month of the season. Baltimore has won nine out of its last 10 games and enters with the best defense in football. Expect the Colts to stay in it till the very end, but their season once again falls short of expectations.
RAVENS 21-20.
Philadelphia (+6) at New Orleans
Comments: Winners of six straight, Philadelphia comes in as one of the NFL’s hottest teams. Although they won last week, the Eagles will need improved play out of Jeff Garcia to have any chance against the Saints, who had the third best pass defense in the NFL this year, allowing just 178.4 yards per game. Still, the secondary did allow 26 scores through the air – the second most in the league – so Garcia will have opportunities. Of course, the Eagles won’t solely rely on Garcia’s arm, as Brian Westbrook is the team’s most explosive offensive weapon. Ever since Marty Mornhinweg took over the play-calling duties, Philadelphia has been much more balanced and as a result, more productive. Since New Orleans surrenders 128.9 rushing yards per game, expect Westbrook to see around 25 carries this week. With Lito Sheppard (elbow) out against a potent Saints’ offense, the Eagles will have to win with offense.
The NFL did no favors for Philly; while both of the AFC wild card winners each have seven days between games, and Seattle has eight days to prepare, the Eagles are playing the Saints six days after beating the Giants. Think the city of New Orleans might be a little fired up for this home playoff game? Since the league went to the current playoff format in 1990, the team with the extra week to prepare for the divisional round is 28-4 in the NFC. However, the Eagles were one of the four teams that pulled off the upset, winning at Chicago in 2002. Before losing to New Orleans earlier this season, Philly had won the last six games against the Saints.
The underrated Eagles’ secondary will no doubt miss Sheppard, but since Joe Horn is still hampered by his hamstring injury, New Orleans may struggle to test Philly’s depth. Still, Brees has been effective no matter who he throws to this year, so expect the Saints to be able to move the ball with ease. The Eagles have been beaten on the ground this year, so look for Deuce McAllister and Reggie Bush to be productive as well. In a battle that comes down to the final minutes, New Orleans has too much firepower on the offensive side of the ball.
SAINTS 27-24.
Seattle (+8.5) at Chicago
Comments: Each team enters hardly playing its best football, as Seattle limped into the postseason and was lucky to beat a mediocre Dallas squad at home last week. Chicago, meanwhile, gave up 105 points in its final four regular season games after allowing just 36 points over its first six games. However, Nathan Vasher and Charles Tillman will play in the secondary together this week for the first time in more than a month, and it’s not like Seattle’s offense has been playing well anyhow. Darrell Jackson and D.J. Hackett are banged up, while Deion Branch simply can’t catch the football. You know you’ve got problems when Jerramy Stevens is your most reliable receiver – at least Bobby Engram is back acting as Matt Hasselbeck’s safety valve. The running game may be even more of a problem for the Seahawks, as Shaun Alexander doesn’t even resemble last year’s MVP. If you take away one game against a poor Green Bay team, Alexander got a pathetic 3.3 YPC on 212 totes this year.
Chicago doesn’t enter without question marks of its own, however, as Rex Grossman’s play has been extremely inconsistent over the second half of the season. While Seattle’s secondary is decimated by injuries, its front seven has also allowed 152.7 rushing yards per game over the last six weeks, so expect Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson to be heavily involved. The Seahawks are likely to play tougher than Week 4’s 37-6 blowout loss the last time they traveled to Soldier Field, but it’s hard to find much optimism with their recent play.
BEARS 27-14.
New England (+4.5) at San Diego
Comments: In a divisional round matchup, it’s possible the NFL’s two best teams face off this week. San Diego was 8-0 at home this season, while New England was 7-1 on the road. Tom Brady is 11-1 during the postseason in his career, while Marty Schottenheimer is 5-12. He’s had three teams earn first round byes, only to be upset by the lower seed each and every time. This isn’t history class, and San Diego may very well have the most talent in the league, but experience does have to be considered. Philip Rivers will be starting his first ever playoff game Sunday; in the last two years, teams that had a quarterback making his first playoff start have gone 0-6. His late season struggles only add to the worries. Still, the Chargers have the NFL’s MVP, the league’s sack leader (in 12 games) and come in riding a 10-game winning streak. This team is a force.
The same could be said about the Patriots, however, as the team entered the postseason underrated by most. New England’s defense this year allowed fewer points than at any time during its 2001-2004 dynasty. San Diego has struggled with red zone defense this season, while New England has excelled when its offense sniffs the end zone. The Pats also allowed a ridiculously low 10 touchdown passes through the air this season, while Ty Warren, Richard Seymour and Vince Wilfork should make life difficult on Tomlinson. The Chargers’ best weapon in the passing game? That would be Antonio Gates, and the Patriots have allowed exactly zero TDs to a tight end this year. The Ravens are very good, but the winner of this game goes on to be Super Bowl champs.
PATRIOTS 24-23.
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