By Dalton Del Don – Senior Writer
New Orleans (+2) at Chicago
Comments: It’s unclear which is of greater concern for Chicago entering this weekend, Rex Grossman or its recent defensive play. Grossman silenced the critics somewhat last week (7.4 YPA), but the Bears’ defense continued its downslide. Chicago is allowing 25.8 points per game over the last five contests, while also forcing fewer turnovers. Considering this stretch of play featured the likes of Tampa Bay, Detroit and Green Bay, hardly offensive juggernauts, there is legitimate cause for concern. While the weather figures to be below freezing, usually not conducive for a dome team such as the Saints, New Orleans has played well on the road this season, amassing a 6-2 record. While Grossman’s play has been about as up-and-down as possible this season (eight games with a QB rating above 98.0, five games below 37.0), Drew Brees has been consistently great.
New Orleans has stepped up its play when on the road this season, and Brees has especially excelled; in eight games away from home this year, Brees got 8.5 YPA and posted a 16/2 TD/INT ratio. The Saints’ offense is hardly one-dimensional, evidenced by last week’s 208-yard rushing effort. The Bears have been beaten on the ground from time to time this season, and Deuce McAllister’s physical style seems suited to take advantage of that. New Orleans also protects the quarterback well, an aspect that should be vital Sunday. The Saints’ defense can certainly be beat, and it won’t be easy winning a January game played at temps in the mid-20s in Soldier Field, but expect Sean Payton to out-scheme Lovie Smith, as New Orleans advances to its first Super Bowl.
SAINTS 24-20
New England (+3) at Indianapolis
Comments: Although the Patriots may have been outplayed last week, it’s clear the team has mastered this know how to win business. They simply get it done, and at this point, it’s hard to argue with the results. Tom Brady won for the first time ever when throwing three picks, improving his postseason record to 12-1 in the process. The Colts are 9-0 at home this season, but the Patriots are an impressive 8-1 on the road. Although Indy has shored up its run defense during its two playoff games, that is still the area Bill Belichick and company figure to attack. That would be a drastic change in philosophy from last week, when New England called 22 straight pass plays at one point during the second half.
After the Patriots had won six straight meetings between these two teams, the Colts have won each of the last two games, including a 27-20 win at Gillette Stadium earlier this year; in fact, each of the last five meetings have taken place in New England. This will be the Pats first trip to Indy since 2003, but they have won the last two contests there. Remarkably, New England is 14-0-1 against the spread in its last 15 games played in Indianapolis.
But like coach Belichick says, none of that matters now. Largely overlooked entering the postseason, the Colts are currently playing the best defense they have all season long. Over the past two games, Indy has limited Kansas City and Baltimore to just 3-for-22 on third down conversions. On Sunday, their offense needs to show up. Ironically, the team has won despite Manning playing his worst two games of the season (1/5 TD/INT ratio). Still, look for a big performance from him this week. The same should be expected from Brady, but with Corey Dillon and Laurence Maroney largely ineffective of late, New England may have a hard time taking advantage of that undersized front seven. This will be the first time an AFC Championship game will ever be played in a dome stadium, and in the end, home field will be the difference.
COLTS 27-23
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