By Dalton Del Don – Senior Writer
The Giants signed Barry Zito to a seven-year, $126 million contract – the largest for a pitcher in baseball history. Basically, it’s identical to the one Vernon Wells signed just days ago. While Zito’s peripherals (151/99 K/BB ratio last year) suggest he’s more of a No. 2 starter than a true ace, there’s something to be said for durability. Zito is still only 28 years old and has made 34 or more starts, while throwing 210 or more innings in six straight seasons. He has never missed a start due to injury in his entire career.
General Managers see the value in minimizing injury risk, just ask Bill Bavasi, who recently signed Miguel Batista for no discernible reason other than health. Batista is guaranteed $25 million after a season with a 4.58 ERA and 1.53 WHIP while pitching in the NL. Gil Meche, who has a 4.65 career ERA and a poor K/BB ratio, was just guaranteed $55 million. These are unjustifiable, terrible contracts. Point is, the market is changing so fast, it’s impossible to judge Zito’s deal right now, and in comparison, it’s certainly not egregious.
From a baseball standpoint, Zito benefits from the league switch and ballpark, but it’s apparent that winning wasn’t a major issue. San Francisco has an old, and likely uncompetitive team next year, with one of the weakest farm systems in the game. Still, Matt Cain and Zito form a pretty solid duo for the future, and the lefty does get to stay in the Bay Area, something he clearly preferred.
Fantasywise, Zito finds himself in the best situation of his career. The switch from the AL to the NL cannot be underestimated. Just last year, Bronson Arroyo saw his ERA dip from 4.51 to 3.29, and his strikeout rate skyrocketed. Zito, a flyball pitcher like Arroyo, should love pitching in spacious AT&T Park. Billy Beane has a pretty amazing track record of when to say goodbye (i.e. Tim Hudson and Mark Mulder), but Zito was the one he was always reluctant to let go and is leaving via free agency and not a trade.
Bottom line, switching to the NL, AT&T Park and one of the most pitcher-friendly divisions in all of baseball, Zito has an excellent chance to post his best statistical season yet. A 3.20-3.40 ERA, with a WHIP around 1.20 seems reasonable, and while the Giants’ offense isn’t exactly potent, 15-18 wins isn’t out of the question either. When you also factor in the likely 190 Ks, he’s easily a top-20 SP now, with the possibility of top-12. Just don’t be discouraged if he gets off to a slow start, as his career 5.04 April ERA is one of the bigger anomalies in baseball. He’s definitely someone to target.
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