By Dalton Del Don – Senior Writer
Editor’s Note: The following is written for RotoWire’s weekly “game capsules;” I cover the NFC home games.
Atlanta (-5.5) at Detroit, Sunday 1 p.m.
Comments: It’s unclear if Michael Vick’s newfound passing success is permanent, but it is the surest sign of progress shown in quite some time. Likewise, Jon Kitna has had success with Mike Martz’s system, throwing for 264 yards a game. While that has yet to translate into wins for Detroit, it at least shows that the offense is moving in the right direction. Coming off a bye, look for Kitna and Roy Williams to expose an overrated DeAngelo Hall, while Kevin Jones remains a big part of the passing game…If Michael Vick continues to look downfield while scrambling, he’ll basically become indefensible. Expect another big effort from Vick against a mistake-prone Detroit secondary. Alge Crumpler is getting healthier after offseason knee surgery, as he now has four touchdown catches over the last two games. He’s back into elite status among tight ends in the league. Jerious Norwood will continue to get more involved in Atlanta’s offense, combining with Warrick Dunn to help pad its league-leading rushing stats, as the Falcons have too much firepower for a lackluster Detroit defense…Atlanta will be without John Abraham (groin), while Ed Hartwell (knee) is questionable to play. Detroit will be missing Shaun Cody (toe), while James Hall (shoulder) is listed as questionable.
Predictions: Jon Kitna puts another 280 passing yards on the board, along with a pair of interceptions and touchdowns. Mike Furrey catches one of the TDs, while Roy Williams hauls in the other, along with 120 receiving yards. Kevin Jones gets 100 yards combined but doesn’t reach paydirt. Michael Vick doesn’t slow down, tossing for 220 yards and TD strikes to Alge Crumpler and Michael Jenkins. He also adds another 50 yards on the ground. Warrick Dunn gets 90 rushing yards, but Jerious Norwood runs in the score, helping Atlanta win its third straight. Falcons 24-20.
Dallas (-3) at Washington, Sunday 1 p.m.
Comments: A bye week may have gotten Washington healthier, but it remains to be seen if its other ills have been cured. Despite some rumblings of the Jason Campbell era beginning, Mark Brunell (ribs, probable) remains at the helm for a struggling Redskins squad that’s dropped three straight games. It won’t be easy with the team’s top playmaker, Santana Moss, looking unlikely to play. He missed practice all week and was shut down the last time he faced Dallas, so don’t expect a big outing from Moss even if he’s able to suit up. Clinton Portis (ankle, probable), meanwhile, has used the extra week of rest to get back to health and figures to be a prominent part of the game plan Sunday. Against a run defense allowing just 80 yards a game, the task will be difficult. Chris Cooley has become more involved in the offense as the year has progressed and should be one of Brunell’s top targets again Sunday…Not only is Dallas’ defense fast improving, but Tony Romo has made this offense an interesting and potentially dangerous one. His ability to elude the pass rush has given a previously stagnant offense a much-needed shot of adrenaline, with Jason Witten and Terrell Owens being the biggest beneficiaries. Owens was targeted a staggering 16 times last week, leading to a season-high in both catches and yards for the suddenly happy wideout…Dallas is 15-3 in its last 18 games against Washington.
Predictions: Dallas’ physical secondary forces Mark Brunell to check down early and often, resulting in a modest 160 passing yards. He does, however, connect with Chris Cooley for a touchdown. Clinton Portis gets 90 yards and a rushing score as well. Tony Romo answers with another solid day, as he finds both Terrell Owens and Terry Glenn in the end zone. Owens has another big game, catching eight balls for more than 100 yards with the score. Julius Jones breaks the century mark on the ground, but Marion Barber once again pilfers the touchdown, as these two teams are moving in opposite directions. Cowboys 24-17.
Houston (+13) at New York Giants, Sunday 1 p.m.
Comments: Despite completing 71 percent of his passes, David Carr was pulled from the game last week after a terrible interception thrown into quadruple coverage and two fumbles lost. While no longer leading the league in passer rating, Carr is still having a rather solid season, which is why he will return as Houston’s starter this week, despite backup Sage Rosenfel’s impressive job filling in. Andre Johnson was targeted a league-high 18 times Week 8, bringing his total to 81 on the year, good for third in the NFL. His 56 catches and 669 receiving yards, however, lead the entire league, showing just how big of a step the fourth-year wideout has taken this year. A model of consistency, Johnson hasn’t caught fewer than eight balls or 75 receiving yards since Week 2. It looks like Houston has finally found its feature back in Wali Lundy, who totaled 149 yards on just 23 touches last week, marking his second straight strong effort. Expect a productive second half of the season out of the rookie…Winners of four straight, the Giants need to be careful not to look ahead to next week’s big game against Chicago. New York’s defense has improved each week of the season, exemplified by holding Bruce Gradkowski to a pathetic 2.9 YPA last week. Expect another strong pass rush from its front seven, despite the absence of Osi Umenyiora (hip, questionable). Eli Manning could pick apart Houston’s weak secondary, but the Giants’ running game may be the dominant force come Sunday…Houston lists Ephraim Salaam (ankle, questionable), Anthony Weaver (knee, probable) and Mario Williams (foot, probable) on the injury report, while New York does the same with Sam Madison (hamstring, questionable), Brandon Short (quad, questionable) and Plaxico Burress (back, probable)… Houston hasn’t won a road game since 2004, having dropped its last 11 games played away from home.
Predictions: David Carr is again faced with constant pressure but bounces back with a decent game, with most of his stats coming in garbage time. Andre Johnson catches 10 passes for 120 yards and a score, while Wali Lundy gets 90 combined yards and a touchdown of his own. Eli Manning counters with 240 yards and scoring strikes to Plaxico Burress and Jeremy Shockey, while Tiki Barber adds another 140 yards on the ground. Once again, Brandon Jacobs gets the goal line score, as well as another 40 yards to help run out the clock. Giants 24-14.
Kansas City (+2.5) at St. Louis, Sunday 1 p.m.
Comments: Damon Huard is having one of the most underrated seasons in the NFL. He’s not just winning games, he’s doing so while completing 65 percent of his passes, getting 7.8 YPA and sporting an 8/1 TD/INT ratio. While coach Herm Edwards is adamant about Trent Green returning as the starter once healthy, for now, the Chiefs remain in the solid hands of Huard, who has a fine matchup against a shaky Rams’ secondary Sunday. Since getting off to a solid start, St. Louis’ passing defense has really regressed, so expect big days out of Eddie Kennison and Tony Gonzalez. Larry Johnson may eventually wear down given his heavy workload (his 41 touches last week were the most by any player in a game so far this year), but it’s hard not to like the way he’s running right now. There simply isn’t a player more difficult to bring down on first contact than Johnson…For all its defensive shortcomings, St. Louis still possesses a potent offensive attack, especially in the passing department. Marc Bulger is having his best season yet, with 7.8 YPA and a 12/1 TD/INT ratio. Kansas City hasn’t been especially easy to pass on overall this year, but its secondary has allowed multiple touchdown passes four straight weeks, including three by first time starter Seneca Wallace last week. Ty Law looks washed up, which means another huge game from Torry Holt is in the cards…Neither team has any significant injury issues… Kansas City has won its last three games when playing St. Louis but is just 1-4 during its last five road games.
Predictions: Damon Huard throws for more than 260 yards and a score, which Tony Gonzalez hauls in. Larry Johnson again terrorizes the defense, getting 140 total yards and two rushing scores. Marc Bulger responds with 300 passing yards and fires two scoring strikes, with Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce being the recipients. Steven Jackson approaches 100 yards and also finds the end zone, as homefield is the difference in the shootout. Rams 27-24.
Miami (+13.5) at Chicago, Sunday 1 p.m.
Comments: Joey Harrington hasn’t turned into the savior Miami needed, and it’s becoming apparent that it’s a lost season for the Dolphins. Since taking over for Daunte Culpepper, Harrington has gotten 6.2 YPA and thrown seven interceptions compared to just three touchdowns. Facing the best defense in the NFL Sunday, things could get ugly. Chris Chambers has had a largely disappointing season, suffering from too many drops. Randy McMichael, however, has greatly benefited from the switch at quarterback, as he is prominently featured in the passing game again. Wes Welker has had a surprisingly solid year, but don’t forget about Marty Booker, who is back to health and received 13 targets during Miami’s last game…Rex Grossman bounced back with a strong game last week but faces a defense that hasn’t been as easy to move the ball on as its record suggests. It’s a secondary that has, however, allowed 12 touchdown passes already. Good news for Desmond Clark, who has turned himself into quite the receiving threat. Cedric Benson continues to remain involved, but Thomas Jones gets the carries that matter most…The Dolphins list Channing Crowder (foot), Travis Daniels (knee) and Jeno James (knee) as questionable, while the Bears list Tank Johnson (shoulder) as probable…Chicago is 10-1 in its last 11 games at home.
Predictions: Joey Harrington’s season only gets worse, as he turns the ball over three times while never getting his team into the end zone. Ronnie Brown manages 70 total yards, but it’s only field goals for Miami’s offense. Rex Grossman throws for 250 yards and TD tosses to Bernard Berrian and Muhsin Muhammad. Thomas Jones adds 80 yards and a score, maintaining Chicago’s undefeated record. Bears 27-6.
New Orleans (-1) at Tampa Bay, Sunday 1 p.m.
Comments: Coming off a near 400-yard performance in a losing effort, Drew Brees looks to continue his strong season (7.5 YPA) against a Tampa Bay team that has been difficult to pass on lately. While the run defense is still ranked toward the bottom of the league, the Buccaneers have also shored up that part of its defense in recent weeks as well, so Deuce McAllister’s day doesn’t figure to be an easy one. Reggie Bush’s rookie year hasn’t been bad, in fact, his mere presence has presented many opportunities for the offense. Still, the fact remains he’s only averaging 3.0 YPC. Seventh-round draft pick Marques Colston is having the bigger rookie campaign…Bruce Gradkowski seems to only get worse the more he plays, but it would help if his receivers didn’t drop so many passes. Michael Clayton’s brilliant rookie season seems like it was a decade ago. Cadillac Williams has at times disappeared but has a nice matchup this week against a soft Saints’ front seven. Despite what the records might indicate, Tampa Bay is no doormat at home, making this a game that isn’t decided until the very end…New Orleans lists Jammal Brown (ankle), Reggie Bush (ankle) and Joe Horn (groin) as questionable, while Tampa Bay does the same with Shelton Quarles (knee) and Simeon Rice (shoulder).
Predictions: Drew Brees throws for 240 yards and a TD to Joe Horn, while Deuce McAllister runs for 70 yards and an additional touchdown. Reggie Bush is relatively shut down, gaining a modest 50 total yards. Bruce Gradkowski doesn’t have a big statistical day, but he does find Joey Galloway for a score. Alex Smith is also featured in the passing game, but it’s Cadillac Williams who scores the Bucs’ other touchdown. Matt Bryant is again heroic, nailing a field goal at the buzzer to win it for the home team. Buccaneers 20-17.
Minnesota (-5) at San Francisco, Sunday 4:05 p.m.
Comments: Both teams enter coming off losses in embarrassing fashion. Alex Smith had a terrible day against a tough Bears’ defense and is now pitted against a solid Vikings unit. Minnesota’s secondary enters with something to prove after Tom Brady picked them apart on Monday Night Football. The run defense, however, is the best the league has to offer, so Frank Gore may have to do most of his damage in the passing game. The status of both the Vikings’ key interior linemen, Kevin Williams (ankle, questionable) and Pat Williams (knee, questionable) will be key here…It’s starting to become apparent that the Vikings were winning despite Brad Johnson, not because of him. Still, Minnesota has no better options to turn to, so the team will go as far as Johnson can take them. His 6.5 YPA and 4/7 TD/INT ratio show there’s a lot of work to be done. San Francisco’s porous secondary is a great place to start, but expect a heavy dose of Chester Taylor, who should be in line for a big performance Sunday. Minnesota is the clear favorite on paper, but they are traveling during a short week, and the 49ers are far from pushovers in San Francisco…Vernon Davis (fibula) is doubtful for the 49ers, while Matt Birk (knee), Napoleon Harris (wrist) and Marcus Robinson (back) are questionable for the Vikings…San Francisco is 5-0 in its last five games when playing at home against Minnesota.
Predictions: Alex Smith throws for 230 yards, while finding Antonio Bryant and Frank Gore for scores. Gore also adds 90 yards on the ground. Brad Johnson has an efficient day, resulting in 220 yards and a touchdown to Troy Williamson, who finally ends his long scoring drought. Chester Taylor uses 30 touches to gain 150 yards and a TD run, while the Vikings’ defense returns an Alex Smith pick to the house to seal the game for the road team. Vikings 24-20.
Oakland (+8) at Seattle, Monday 8:30 p.m.
Comments: Seneca Wallace proved he’s capable of moving Seattle’s offense last week but faces the league’s No. 1 ranked pass defense Monday night. While Oakland’s defense has been surprisingly stingy, its offense counters with a passing attack that ranks dead last in the league. Andrew Walters is responsible for 14 turnovers already and completed a remarkably futile five passes during last week’s victory. LaMont Jordan (back, questionable) is likely to return, but it’s unclear just how much of a reinforcement he will provide, as his year has been a disappointing one. Randy Moss faces a beatable Seahawks’ secondary, but he’s dropping as many balls as he’s catching these days…Expect a low-scoring affair Monday night, as Seneca Wallace attempts few downfield passes, especially with Darrell Jackson (foot, probable) nicked up. While getting Floyd Womack back is a plus, Sean Locklear (ankle, questionable) missing practice time all week certainly is not. It’s an offensive line that hasn’t run blocked well all year, so don’t expect a huge game from the still subbing Maurice Morris. Still, with Oakland coming off two consecutive wins and Seattle back-to-back losses, expect the home team to prevail in the end…Oakland lists Michael Huff (shoulder, questionable), Justin Fargas (shoulder, probable) and Warren Sapp (hip, probable) on the injury report, while Seattle names Marcus Tubbs (knee, doubtful), Bobby Engram (illness, questionable) and Chris Spencer (knee, questionable)… Seattle is 12-1 in its last 13 games at home.
Predictions: Andrew Walter again directs a lackluster passing attack, resulting in just 180 yards and no scores. LaMont Jordan doesn’t pile up big yardage numbers, but he does reach paydirt in his return to the lineup. Darrell Jackson suits up and catches a TD pass from Seneca Wallace, while Maurice Morris gains 75 yards on the ground. Mack Strong punches one in from close, abruptly ending the Raiders’ winning streak. Seahawks 20-13.
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