Archive for October, 2006

Week Five Lineup Rankings

Thursday, October 5th, 2006

By Jeff Chudnofsky – Staff Writer

Byes- Atlanta, Cincinnati, Houston, Seattle

Quarterbacks

1. Peyton Manning vs Tenn
2. Donovan McNabb vs Dal
3. Marc Bulger @ GB
4. Drew Bledsoe @ Phi
5. Eli Manning vs Wash
6. Tom Brady vs Mia
7. Jake Delhomme vs Clev
8. Brett Favre vs Stl
9. Drew Brees vs TB
10. Chad Pennington @ Jax
11. Byron Leftwich vs NYJ
12. Jon Kitna @ Min
13. Alex Smith vs Oak
14. Matt Leinart vs KC
15. Brad Johnson vs Det
16. Ben Roethlisberger @ SD
17. Mark Brunell @ NYG
18. Daunte Culpepper @ NE
19. Philip Rivers vs Pitt
20. Andrew Walter @ SF

Running Backs
(Brian Westbrook is excluded from the list, but pencil him in at #2 if he plays. If Buckhalter gets the start, consider him a decent start, ranked in the high teens.)

1. Larry Johnson @ Ari
2. Steven Jackson @ GB
3. Laurence Maroney vs Mia
4. Chester Taylor vs Det
5. Frank Gore vs Oak
6. Corey Dillon vs Mia
7. Tiki Barber vs Wash
8. Clinton Portis @ NYG
9. LaDainian Tomlinson vs Pitt
10. LaMont Jordan @ SF
11. Joseph Addai vs Tenn
12. Deuce McAllister vs TB
13. DeShaun Foster vs Clev
14. Reggie Bush vs TB
15. Ronnie Brown @ NE
16. Dominic Rhodes vs Tenn
17. Fred Taylor vs NYJ
18. Kevin Jones @ Min
19. Carnell Williams @ NO
20. Edgerrin James vs KC
21. Thomas Jones vs Buff
22. Willie Parker @ SD
23. Julius Jones @ Phi
24. Willis McGahee @ Chi
25. Tatum Bell vs Balt
26. Reuben Droughns @ Car
27. Jamal Lewis @ Den
28. Maurice Jones-Drew vs NYJ
29. Kevan Barlow @ Jax
30. Chris Brown @ Ind
31. Ahman Green/V. Morency vs Stl
32. LenDale White @ Ind

Wide Receivers

1. Marvin Harrison vs Tenn
2. Terrell Owens @ Phi
3. Reggie Wayne vs Tenn
4. Torry Holt @ GB
5. Steve Smith vs Clev
6. Terry Glenn @ Phi
7. Santana Moss @ NYG
8. Larry Fitzgerald vs KC
9. Anquan Boldin vs KC
10. Plaxico Burress vs Wash
11. Reggie Williams vs NYJ
12. Laveranues Coles @ Jax
13. Roy Williams @ Min
14. Marques Colston vs TB
15. Antonio Bryant vs Oak
16. Randy Moss @ SF
17. Reggie Brown vs Dal
18. Joey Galloway @ NO
19. Troy Williamson vs Det
20. Doug Gabriel vs Mia
21. Jericho Cotchery @ Jax
22. Keyshawn Johnson vs Clev
23. Joe Horn vs TB
24. Javon Walker vs Balt
25. Chris Chambers @ NE
26. Braylon Edwards @ Car
27. Derrick Mason @ Den
28. Muhsin Muhammad vs Buff
29. Lee Evans @ Chi
30. Hines Ward @ SD
31. Greg Jennings vs Stl
32. Mike Furrey @ Min

Award Time

Wednesday, October 4th, 2006

NL MVP:
1. Albert Pujols
2. Ryan Howard
3. Lance Berkman

Ryan Howard is very deserving and obviously had one hell of a year, but don’t overrate home runs here. Pujols beats him in average, OBP and slugging percentage, while striking out 131 fewer times. He plays a far superior defense, is more of an asset on the basepaths, hit in the weaker lineup and led MLB in game-winning RBIs by a sizeable margin. With RISP, Pujols has a 1.337 to .942 OPS advantage. Howard is the man, but Pujols is baseball’s best hitter.

AL MVP:
1. Johan Santana
2. Derek Jeter
3. Justin Morneau

This is where I expect to get the most flak, and I understand it’s unorthodox, especially considering Santana will win the Cy Young, and an offensive player of the year award doesn’t exist. Still, I’m sticking to it, mainly because I am so underwhelmed with all other options. Derek Jeter had a fine year and all, but he was one out away from finishing with an OPS in the 800s. Joe Mauer deserves serious consideration as well but losing at-bats because of catching certainly hurts his chances. David Ortiz is another tough pick, considering he’s a DH on a non-playoff team. Same goes for the AL’s best hitter this year, Travis Hafner. If you want to get all “most valuable to their team” on me, look no further than Frank Thomas, who absolutely carried an inept Oakland offense on a very affordable contract. Morneau helped lead a weak lineup into the playoffs with 130 RBI, but his OPS doesn’t even crack the AL’s top-5. Ask yourself this, would the A’s rather play the Twins without Morneau (or Jeter, hypothetically speaking) or without Santana in their series? Of course it’s Johan.

NL Cy Young:
1. Chris Carpenter
2. Brandon Webb
3. Roy Oswalt

I would have no problem if this list was flipped, as it really is that close. Webb deserves credit for his extra 15 innings and calling Chase Field home, but he also pitches in the NL West and has the weakest K/BB ratio. Oswalt paces them all in ERA and flashes a brilliant 166/38 K/BB ratio, but batters hit nearly 30 points higher against him than the other candidates, resulting in a higher WHIP. Which brings us to Carpenter, who limited hitters to a .235 BAA, posted a 3.09 ERA and 1.07 WHIP to go along with a nifty 184/43 K/BB ratio. But really, all three are deserving.

AL Cy Young:
1. Johan Santana

This one is the easiest pick of all and is pretty much undebatable.

NL Rookie of the Year:
1. Takashi Saito
2. Hanley Ramirez
3. Ryan Zimmerman

Another extremely tough call, as the National League had a huge year for rookies. Dan Uggla, Prince Fielder, Josh Willingham, Josh Johnson, Scott Olsen and Matt Cain all deserve attention as well. Whether or not a 36-year-old from Japan should be truly considered a rookie is up for debate, but his performance during his first year in the majors certainly is not. While there are rumblings that Trevor Hoffman should receive some Cy Young votes, Saito quietly put together an even more impressive campaign. While his 24 saves won’t jump off the page, his 107 strikeouts in just 78 1/3 innings do. A 2.07 ERA, 0.91 WHIP and .177 BAA reveal the most dominating season by a first year player in the National League.

AL Rookie of the Year:
1. Francisco Liriano
2. Jonathan Papelbon
3. Justin Verlander

A lot can be said for simply staying healthy, which makes this another tightly contested battle. I tend to completely ignore the wins category, but in this case, it was Verlander’s extra innings that allowed him to accrue them. Still, he might as well have been hurt when the other two were, as he sported a 5.87 ERA once July ended. His 124/60 K/BB ratio also looks downright embarrassing compared to Liriano’s 144/32 and Papelbon’s 75/13. Since he tossed 50 more innings than Papelbon and was basically baseball’s most dominant hurler when on the hill, Liriano gets the nod.

Postseason Predictions

Tuesday, October 3rd, 2006

ALDS:
Yankees over Tigers
Twins over A’s

NLDS:
Dodgers over Mets
Padres over Cardinals

ALCS:
Yankees over Twins

NLCS:
Dodgers over Padres

World Series:
Yankees over Dodgers

The New Rankings

Monday, October 2nd, 2006

By Robby Wellington – Staff Writer

With four weeks in the books, preseason ranks can be thrown out, as we have to constantly readjust our perceptions of players’ values. Here are my top 60 players from here on out, listed in a draft format. Standard scoring (1 point per 10 yards rushing/receiving, 1 per 20 passing, 6 per rushing/receiving TDs, 4 per passing TDs and .5 points per reception) with 2 starting WRs and RBs and a flex player.

Round One

1 – LaDanian Tomlinson
2 – Larry Johnson
3 – Brian Westbrook
4 – Clinton Portis
5 – Shaun Alexander
6 – Tatum Bell
7 – Tiki Barber
8 – Ronnie Brown
9 – Steven Jackson
10 – Rudi Johnson
11 – Chester Taylor
12 – Willis McGahee

The top three is down to the top two, and Shaun Alexander’s foot remains a concern, divine intervention be damned. Speaking of injury concerns, Portis has come back with a vengeance and looks awesome. It would not be a surprise to see Tatum Bell post the best numbers of any running back from here on out, nor would it be surprising to see him have a bad game and go back into a timeshare with Mike Bell. Willis McGahee has a great playoff schedule and with the Bills and JP Losman looking decent, moves into the top round.

Round Two

13 – Willie Parker
14 – Julius Jones
15 – Peyton Manning
16 – Kevin Jones
17 – Steve Smith
18 – Torry Holt
19 – Laurence Maroney
20 – Roy Williams
21 – Andre Johnson
22 – Frank Gore
23 – Edgerrin James
24 – Marvin Harrison

Peyton Manning and the Colts’ offense is going to have a huge season, thanks to their weakened defense. Holt and Smith are the clear-cut top two receivers in my opinion, and there is a big drop off after 18, although Maroney’s upside is undeniable. Roy Williams and Andre Johnson look to have reached the elite tier of wideouts. Edgerrin James may still be overvalued as a late second round pick, especially with Leinart taking the reigns.

Round Three

25 – Reggie Wayne
26 – Donald Driver
27 – Lamont Jordan
28 – Joseph Addai
29 – Cadillac Williams
30 – Chad Johnson
31 – Thomas Jones
32 – Terrell Owens
33 – Larry Fitzgerald
34 – Anquan Boldin
35 – Warrick Dunn
36 – Chris Chambers

Lamont Jordan and Cadillac Williams look to be the two biggest first round busts. Don’t expect Chad Johnson to reach his usually lofty totals with Housh and Chris Henry around. I think that the Matt Leinart effect is going to cut into Boldin and Fitz’s production tremendously. MOVE THEM NOW!

Round Four

37 – Carson Palmer
38 – Reggie Bush
39 – Antonio Gates
40 – Plaxico Burress
41 – Santana Moss
42 – Fred Taylor
43 – DeShaun Foster
44 – Donovan McNabb
45 – TJ Houshmandzadeh
46 – Marques Colston (TE)
47 – Jamal Lewis
48 – Hines Ward

Carson Palmer has cemented himself as the second best (fantasy) quarterback in football, with Donovan McNabb close behind. Antonio Gates’ value has taken a huge hit thanks to Philip Rivers and the Chargers’ conservative offense. Marques Colston is available as a TE in Yahoo! leagues, which is, how do I put this, kind of a big deal. He may very well still be undervalued in your league.

Round Five

49 – Randy Moss
50 – Darrell Jackson
51 – Reuben Droughns
52 – Donte Stallworth
53 – Antonio Bryant
54 – Muhsin Muhammad
55 – Jeremy Shockey
56 – Deuce McAllister
57 – Terry Glenn
58 – Ahman Green
59 – Todd Heap
60 – Joey Galloway

What happened to Randy Moss? He really misses playing with an elite quarterback like, umm, Daunte Culpepper. Deuce McAllister has solidly outperformed Reggie Bush and would be a top 15 guy if Bush were to go down. Gradkowski to Galloway? I don’t think so.

Honorable Mention

Eli Manning
Joe Horn
Lee Evans
Dominic Rhodes
Corey Dillon
Deion Branch
LJ Smith
Marc Bulger
Tom Brady

Dalton Says: While I feel Robby did a fine job with these rankings, I’m here to offer some counterpoints…I wouldn’t go jumping off a bridge if I were a Fitzgerald/Boldin owner. The way I see it, the QB switch may be a good thing, as Kurt Warner was playing so poorly. While having a rookie QB throwing to your highly drafted receiver isn’t ideal (say goodbye to any fantasy value, Drew Bennett), Leinart is considered the most ready for an NFL offense. With their running game as bad as ever, he’ll be forced to throw 45-55 times a game, resulting in fine numbers from the best WR duo in the league…Laveranues Coles should at least be on the honorable mention list; in fact, I’d rather own him than Jamal Lewis, Reuben Droughns, Joey Galloway, and maybe even Randy Moss.