Game Capsules

By Dalton Del Don – Senior Writer

Editor’s Note: The following is written for RotoWire’s weekly “game capsules;” I cover the NFC home games.

Pittsburgh (-2.5) at Atlanta, Sunday 1 p.m.

Comments: Ben Roethlisberger got back on track in a big way last week, finishing with a remarkable 153.8 QB rating and getting 12.5 YPA. While that performance is sure to ease some concerns about his health, Roethlisberger and the Steelers now have to travel to Atlanta to face a team fighting to stay in the NFC South race. Willie Parker won’t find the gaping holes he had during Week 5, but the Steelers will concentrate on attacking a run defense that was exposed by the Giants last week. Grady Jackson (knee, probable) has been solid, but John Abraham (groin, questionable) and Rod Coleman (foot, questionable) are far from full strength. Atlanta’s pass defense, however, has been one of the best in the league, and the unit as a whole has been extremely tough to score on…Atlanta’s fondness of the running game will get a stern test against Pittsburgh’s stingy run defense, especially after losing starting guard Matt Lehr to a four-game suspension for violating the NFL’s steroid policy. Still, Atlanta has nearly 400 more rushing yards than any other team in the NFL, and Michael Vick (shoulder, probable) will make just enough plays to squeak out a victory for the home team…Pittsburgh lists Joey Porter (hamstring, doubtful), Kendall Simmons (foot, questionable) and Deshea Townsend (hamstring, probable) on the injury report, while Atlanta does the same with Patrick Kerney (hamstring, probable)…The last time these two teams met it resulted in a 34-34 tie, the only tie game in the NFL over the last nine years.

Predictions: Ben Roethlisberger continues his improved play, with 220 yards and two TD tosses, with Hines Ward and Heath Miller being the recipients. Willie Parker gets 95 yards but fails to find the end zone. Michael Vick continues to be more of a threat on the ground than through the air, but he does find Alge Crumpler for two short scores. Warrick Dunn manages 80 yards, as the Falcons win on a late field goal. Falcons 20-17.

Philadelphia (-5) at Tampa Bay, Sunday 1 p.m.

Comments: Tampa Bay was finally able to get its first win last week, while Philadelphia comes in following a disappointing loss at New Orleans. The Bucs have been terrible against the run, but the Eagles like to attack through the air, which Tampa Bay has defended reasonably well this year. The Eagles’ secondary, however, has been torched this season, something Bruce Gradkowski figures to take advantage of Sunday. Philly’s run defense has been average, and Cadillac Williams is coming off back-to-back strong efforts…The Eagles’ offense, on the other hand, is leading the entire NFL with more than 400 yards per game. Philadelphia’s league-leading passing offense faces a Tampa secondary that might be missing Brian Kelly (foot, questionable) and has depth issues, evident by the recent Phillip Buchanon signing. Donovan McNabb has struggled mightily throughout his career against the Bucs, compiling a 53.1 QB rating and just 4.2 YPA over three games. Still, McNabb is playing at quite possibly his highest level yet and figures to have a very productive Sunday. Brian Westbrook is probable and his knee appears healthier than it’s been since early in the season…The Eagles’ Roderick Hood (heel) is doubtful to play, while Shawn Barber (neck), Darren Howard (groin), Tra Thomas (back) and Donte Stallworth (hamstring) are questionable. As for Tampa Bay, Simeon Rice (shoulder, questionable) is the only significant injury concern.

Predictions: Philly’s pass rush harasses Bruce Gradkowski, resulting in numerous sacks and a couple of turnovers. Gradkowski, however, is able to throw for 230 yards and two scores, which are hauled in by Joey Galloway and Alex Smith. Cadillac Williams contributes 90 combined yards, but a TD eludes him. Brian Westbrook counters with 120 total yards and a touchdown catch, while Donovan McNabb throws for 260 yards and two other scores, which land in Reggie Brown and L.J. Smith’s hands. Tampa Bay keeps it close, but Philadelphia ultimately has too much firepower. Eagles 24-20.

Minnesota (+6.5) at Seattle, Sunday 4:15 p.m.

Comments: While the Steve Hutchinson signing has certainly worked better for Minnesota than Nate Burleson has for Seattle, this matchup could be considered the “poison pill” bowl. With no Shaun Alexander, Seattle doesn’t quite look like a powerhouse, and Minnesota’s defense has played surprisingly well this year. The Vikings’ offense has been rather productive as well, but playing in Seattle is no small task. Minnesota relies heavily on Chester Taylor each week, but Seattle enters with the league’s fourth best run defense. Brad Johnson hasn’t played terribly while leading the Vikes to a 3-2 start, but he’s only getting 6.6 YPA and has a 3/4 TD/INT ratio…Seattle was lucky to come away with a victory in St. Louis but returns home this week, where the Seahawks have won 11 straight regular season games. Maurice Morris is a serviceable replacement at running back, but Minnesota’s run defense has been quite stingy. Matt Hasselbeck, however, should be getting Jerramy Stevens back at tight end and has already formed a strong rapport with Deion Branch, who was targeted even more than Darrell Jackson last week. Since Branch is settling in nicely into Seattle’s system, the offense becomes that much harder to slow down…While the Vikings don’t list any major injuries, the Seahawks will be without Floyd Womack (knee) and Bobby Engram (illness).

Predictions: Brad Johnson throws for a modest 220 yards and a TD strike to Jermaine Wiggins. Playing mostly from behind, Chester Taylor receives fewer carries than normal, but he does run in his second score of the year. Maurice Morris counters with 80 yards, while Matt Hasselbeck throws for 250 yards and two scores. Darrell Jackson and Deion Branch each approach 85 yards and haul in the touchdowns, sealing it for Seattle. Seahawks 24-17.

New York Giants (+3.5) at Dallas, Monday 8:30 p.m.

Comments: Dallas enters boasting the No. 1 run defense in the league, while New York has the second best offense so far, eclipsing 400 yards per game. While all is well in Dallas after Terrell Owens’ three-touchdown day last week, that number masked the fact he was targeted just six times and gained a modest 45 receiving yards. Drew Bledsoe may have been able to beat a suspect Texans’ secondary, but the Giants figure to get a much better pass rush, forcing too many sacks and poor decisions from the quarterback. Julius Jones and Marion Barber, however, form the league’s third best rushing attack, which is exactly where the Cowboys should focus its gameplan…The Giants have to be thrilled with a 3-2 record following a brutal five game stretch to open the season. Eli Manning has officially arrived, and after a slow start, Tiki Barber has turned in two consecutive big games. He’s still searching for his first score of the year, however. Count on it happening Monday night, as Barber and the Giants shine in the spotlight…Carlos Emmons (pectoral) and Gibril Wilson (toe) are questionable for the Giants, while Keith Davis (ankle) is probable for the Cowboys.

Predictions: Drew Bledsoe mixes in a couple turnovers with two TD passes, one to Terrell Owens and the other to Terry Glenn. Julius Jones approaches 100 rushing yards, but Marion Barber scores from the goal-line. Eli Manning answers with 250 yards and TD strikes to Plaxico Burress and Jeremy Shockey, while Tiki Barber gets 110 yards and solidifies a New York victory with a late rushing score. Giants 24-21.


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25 responses to “Game Capsules”

  1. tv Avatar
    tv

    Hmm. I think Pittsburgh easily beats Atlanta this week and I also think Minnesota upsets Seattle. Finally I agree that the Monday Night is going to be close but I think Dallas holds on to win 31 to 28.

  2. Keith Avatar
    Keith

    Is Pittsburgh going to be able to contain Vick? I’m counting on his rushing yards (and 2 TD passes would be nice too) to keep him as a valuable starter…but Leftwich has a sweet matchup (vs. Hou) and is looking pretty tempting.

    Does anyone have any ideas about this DeAngelo Williams injury? I mean, first he’s out for a month, then he’s day-to-day and “doubtful” for this week’s game? I’ve got Lundy and Brandon Jacobs fighting it out for my flex spot this week…both have pretty crappy matchups and I don’t really see a clear edge for either of them. Is it worth dropping one of them for DeAngelo? I don’t think I’m going to start a K or a TE this week, as I really want to hold on to an RB that’s going to be valuable down the stretch. As much as I want the #1 seed, I think it’s the right move here. I’m starting Addai as my RB2, so like everyone else here, I’m rooting for him to get the rock more!

  3. Robby Avatar
    Robby

    Keith, not sure who you have but it seems like a bold move not starting a K or TE this week. . . can’t you at least drop your current kicker?

  4. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    tv – Here’s my thinking on the ATL/Pitt game: That -2.5 spread is almost begging me to pick Pitt, and I feel they are the obvious choice here, but Vegas isn’t giving money away, and I’ve noticed a lot of my losses come when I pick against home underdogs. While I agree Pitt is a better team in a vacuum, they are coming off a big win and Atl is playing back to back home games and just lost. Bottom line, I could EASILY see Pitt winning and this is one of my least favorite picks/bets of the week.

    As for the Seattle game, I’ll back my Seahawks pick with a little more conviction. I’d be shocked if Minny wins that game. Seattle’s Qwest Field has been playing as one of the very best homefield advantages for a couple years now.

  5. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    Keith – I say go with Leftwich over Vick this week and hope Jax doesn’t run it 40 times. The D. Williams situation is cloudy at best. First, John Fox reportedly told a Fox production crew before last week’s game that he was out another month, and now he’s claiming that he never said that. I think it’s safe to say he’ll miss a couple weeks, but should be good to go before too long…The only kickers I’d hold through a bye are Gould and Wilkins (which I’m doing this week), and you have Gould, right? We’ve talked about this, but since you have a good record, I like your strategy and am fine with going a week w/o a full lineup.

    As for the RBs, it sounds like Lundy is really going to be given a chance to carry the load. Dayne looks completely out of the mix for now, with Lundy getting the majority and a little Gado mixed in. While this week is a brutal matchup, Houston’s schedule really eases up after that for the most part. I think he has to be owned at this point, just to see what he can do. I know the Texans running game doesn’t excite, but Carr is playing well and Kubiak’s zone blocking scheme does have potential.

    I see Jacobs/Williams as having roughly the same value, as it would probably take an injury for either to truly carry the load. Still, if I were forced to pick, I’d actually go Williams here, because Foster is not only a bigger injury risk himself, he’s also been rather unproductive. He’s had some good games, but those are always against weak opponents and the fact is he’s only getting 3.8 YPC. I could easily see D. Williams getting the bulk of the carries come fantasy playoff time, one way or the other.

  6. Keith Avatar
    Keith

    Robby, I’ve got Gould as my K (I think he’s my #3 scorer) and Heap as my TE, with both on Bye. I’ve got Bulger, Holt and Gore all on Byes, with Jacobs/Lundy left, one to be my flex, one to go on mye bench. I’m tied for first record-wise, with the edge in total points, so I’m really hesitant to drop someone I expect to have decent value, as in a league this deep (14 teams, start 3 WR, 2RB, 1RB/WR), getting solid contributions from every spot is huge…you should see some of the guys that have been getting started during these 2 huge bye weeks! So, it does look likely that I’ll lose this week, but I should have an outside chance if Leinart hooks up with Bryant Johnson a couple times, Branch plays like last week, Gabriel makes up for his stinker last week, and L. Jordan and Addai have good games…and if not, I’m 5-2 and hopefully in better shape for the later part of the season than if I’d dumped Gould for some other stiff who gets me 3-10 points. If I were 3-3, I’d probably drop Jacobs for a K.

    My Vick/Leftwich question was for my other league…but I just saw that Leftwich is questionable now, and might be a game-time decision, and since I’m out of town on Sunday (hopefully I can at least sneak away to a Sports Bar…I hate not being able to watch the games!), I’ll probably have to play Vick to be safe…but I really would worry about the Jags running 40+ times, especially with Mo-Jo looking like an oompa loompa on speed.

  7. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    Mo-Jo most definitely looks like an oompa loompa on speed.

  8. Chad Avatar
    Chad

    I had a situation arise, and now i’ve got 4 guys available for a flex spot… I’m fairly certain I’ll go with Amani Toomer, but my options (in the order in which I might play them) is C. Dillon, A. Green, Welker

    Also, am i ridiculous to think Leon Washington should have some success against Detroit? I forsee an early lead for the jets, where Leon could rack up quite a bit of 2nd half yardage. That being said, i’ve placed him in my line up as RB2 this week over the above mentioned Dillon and Green. I’m afraid Dillon won’t be of much use against buffalo, especially sharing carries with Maroney. And Green could have trouble with Miami’s D, not to mention his nagging injuries, and Welker, may or may not play, and even if he does, Booker may return to relinquish starting duties, and steal looks. I’m thinking Toomer will get Looks, may not find the promised land this weekend, but should bring in some catches.

  9. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    I guess I’m having a hard time considering Toomer as such a viable option this year, but the fact of the matter is, Eli Manning is treating him as option 1A, as he’s getting a lot of targets. Still, his big numbers stem mostly from one game, something that at least needs to be taken into consideration. I’m not in love with any of your other options, and the last time I suggested you sit Toomer was the aforementioned huge game, so I’m not about to do it again. Dillon would be my alternative.

    Regarding Leon Washington, no, you’re not ridiculous, as I see the Jets winning that game. Still, Detroit’s run D actually hasn’t been that bad (their Pass D, however, has been horrendous), but they will be missing Shaun Rogers, and the Jets will likely be playing mostly ahead…Still, Barlow remains a factor (don’t ask me why) and is more likely to get the goal-line looks. Although he’s in a time share as well, in this case, I have to suggest Dillon over Washington.

  10. Chad Avatar
    Chad

    It looks like i’ll go with your expert opinion, I’ve put dillon in at RB2 and left toomer at the flex spot. Dillon definitely has a better chance of hitting the end zone, but he won’t pick up any points for receptions, i figure leon washington should get a few receptions and 70-80 yards rushing. As long as Dillon is able to find the endzone, i think you’re right he’ll out perform, so i’ll go with dillon for the possible upside. Although Dillon has had some poor outings of late.
    Thx

  11. Keith Avatar
    Keith

    Personally, I know I’d sleep better starting Dillon, unless you get points per reception.

  12. Chad Avatar
    Chad

    yeah, Points per reception. (1/2) Leon only has 4 catches on the season, one of which he broke open for 47 yards at Buffalo. Although no catches last week against Miami.

    Everyone has been telling me i’m crazy for expecting a lot out of Washington this week. But I think Young Leo has proven himself quite talented (5+ yrd/car this past week against Miami, season:4.3yrd/car), and with Barlow being mostly worthless, it only makes sense to me that Leon should see some continued increase in carries. I know Detroit is decent against the Rush, but it’s one of those gut feelings i have this week (and to reiterate, i’d expect them to be playing ahead), and I won’t feel right telling people, “I told you so” unless I had the balls to actually play him.

    I’m officially talked out of it at this point, since pretty much every reliable source (and even the not-so-reliable) has sided with starting dillon.

    Chad has no sack.

  13. tv Avatar
    tv

    Roto: I dont know how much experience you have betting on games so please dont be insulted if you think I the following is in some way talking “down” to you…

    If you pick road underdogs getting less than three points you would do well over the course of a season to take them.

    I can also tell you that home underdogs getting 3 points means you should take them b/c generally home field in the nfl automatically moves the line 2.5 to 3 points.

    A good general rule of thumb is that if you see a home team favored by less than 3 points or getting points Vegas thinks the visiting team is going to win. That isn’t always the case but it is a good rule of thumb.

    But one thing you need to remember is that Vegas only wants to even the money on each side to get the vig. Some disagree that that is always true but there are no nevers and always in sports betting.

    I dont bet on sports but I have some experience (albeit it way back in the day) in it and I think that the game is a toss up.

    The fact that Pittsburgh is giving 2.5 points tells me that Vegas thinks they are going to probably win 20 to 17 based on what the over/under is on the game too (37 1/2). So Vegas is hoping to get some people take Vick and the broken birds and the over after Pittsburgh’s big game last week. So if they can cover Pittsburgh’s bets with Atlanta’s and then get more people to bet on the over they are sitting pretty when it is a low scoring game 🙂

    As for Minnesota beating Seattle it is just a gut feeling I have. But without Alexander they are going to be throwing a ton and will be one dimensional because the vikings are going to stuff any attempt at a running game. Minnesota’s defense looked pretty good in the two games I saw (bears and redskins) so I think it is a good upset special to pick. If I had to rank it I would say I would put 5 points on Minnesota since I know 9/10 people that would do a pick em against the spread would take Seattle in that game and with big points on it. I could make up the lost points elsewhere on some other interesting games if I had to.

    Keith, before I read that Leftwich was on the injured list I would have said you HAD to start him over Vick. Now it looks like you will have to start Vick.

    Chad, I think we are going to see CMart playing in 3 weeks so I am not touching anyone in the Jets backfield. I wouldn’t start Washington this week over Dillon or Toomer.

  14. tv Avatar
    tv

    PS: I think Oakland is going to beat Arizona too…and I really have no reason to think that other than the line that I looked up when I responded above. lol

    but in re-reading my above novel I said something that isnt really true and bears explaining. Vegas isnt always looking to get even bets on each side. They are looking to maximize profits in certain games and to limit liabilities in others. The vig gives them them a nice pot to play with but it doesnt equal huge amounts of money in most games. But they also dont want set lines to get bets all on one side b/c that would suicide.

    I dont have any hard facts on it but I think that there are probably 3 to 4 games per week that the odds makers are taking a position on. If you can find those 3 to 4 games you will make a killing but if you do find them then I think you are also probably either working for them or on their list of people not to do business with if you do for a period of time that cant merely be explained by luck.

  15. tv Avatar
    tv

    Ok Im spamming so sorry but so far this season Road teams getting less than 3.5 or less are 7 and 1. 🙂

    Road teams favored by 3.5 (but still favored) are 7 and 9 against the spread based on my review.

    That is pretty powerful small sample size evidence to suggest you might have a good dog to take in Atlanta’s game roto!

  16. randy Avatar
    randy

    hi, brandon jacobs, chris perry, or wali lundy, who do ya thunk

  17. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    Chad – I agree, Washington looks like their future at RB, and I don’t know why they keep wasting plays given to Barlow…..Hopefully, Dillon turns out to be the right choice.

  18. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    TV – I appreciate your responses, and don’t worry about coming across as talking “down” to me, I welcome dissenting opinions and certainly don’t expect everyone to agree with everything I say…I actually do have quite a bit experience betting, and with this ATL/PIT example, I was merely trying to say that Pitt appears to be the obvious pick, since they are coming off a huge blowout win and Atlanta is stumbling and has looked bad recently – but football is a game of adjustments, and I wanted to bring up the whole home underdogs statistic as well. But like I said, I don’t like Vick and think Pitt is the better team, so go figure. The spread actually has moved to –3 now. But I hear you, homefield is typically worth 3 points in Vegas’ eyes.

    Regarding the Oakland game – that somewhat falls under my Atl reasoning there, and I think you could easily be right. Most people will be all over Arizona, seeing how impressive (for the most part) they were against the Bears on National television and the Raiders, after all, are winless. BUT, Zona could easily have a letdown and are traveling during a short week, a set up for disaster. Oakland has to win sometime, right? I personally am staying away from that game, b/c I think Oak is that bad, but I def. could see you being right.

    Sounds like you know your stuff when it comes to gambling – why’d you stop?

  19. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    Randy – Jacobs plays the No. 1 ranked run D and figures to see the least amount of carries. Although he’s the most likely to get a TD, I would probably go with one of the other two instead…..I think Lundy is going to get plenty of work moving forward, but this week is obviously a tough one against Jax…Marvin Lewis just stated he’s going to give Chris Perry 10-12 touches this week – most of which should come on receptions…With no Tab Perry or Chris Henry, it’s entirely possible…While it’s a gamble playing someone who hasn’t been on the field all year, especially if your league is PPR, I’m actually going to say C. Perry here. Wali Lundy would be my second choice.

  20. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    The more I think about it, Lundy is probably the safest play. Is it PPR?

  21. tv Avatar
    tv

    I bet you never thought you would be saying Lundy was a safe play…

  22. Chad Avatar
    Chad

    Wow… Leon Washington… Like i said before… Chad has no balls.

  23. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    Ya good call Chad…Leon is the man…At least Dillon got 2 TDs.

  24. tv Avatar
    tv

    So this is my season in a nutshell:

    Guy Im playing trades Tony Gonzalez for Hines Ward. So Ward gets him 39.7 points and the kicker is that after trading Gonzalez he puts in…wait for it…you guessed it…Alge F***ing Crumpler who gets him another 40 points and I lose by 23.

    /cry

    PS: Nice call on that Atlanta score and how bout them Vikings and Raiders!?!

  25. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    TV – Tough break, you must have had a pretty good week yourself for staying close having to play those 2 guys who blew up. I too unfortunately had to go up against Crumpler. Frustrating.

    Yeah, ironic how I ended up getting ATL right but Sea wrong. Good call w/ Minny, as they were outplaying them even before the Hasselbeck injury. I was with you on that Oak feeling, and boy did Arizona look flat. Good calls though.

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