By Dalton Del Don – Senior Writer
Editor’s Note: The following is written for RotoWire’s weekly “game capsules;” I cover the NFC home games.
Cincinnati (-5.5) at Tampa Bay, Sunday 1 p.m.
Comments: Instead of taking yet another step backward, Bruce Gradkowski has the Buccaneers’ offense moving forward. Still, it’s common for rookie QBs to excel early, before game tape reveals weaknesses opposing defenses can later expose. Nevertheless, it looks like there is hope for Tampa Bay’s offensive skill players after all. Cadillac Williams more than doubled his season total in rushing yards with 111 last week. Look for him to build off that effort against a defense giving up 144 rushing yards per game. Expect Gradkowski to come back to earth, however, as the Bengals return from a bye angered following an embarrassing loss to the Patriots…Although 3-1, Cincinnati hasn’t exactly been overly impressive so far, with poor offensive line play and a not quite yet 100 percent Carson Palmer. Although pitted against a desperate 0-4 Bucs team, look for the Bengals to run the ball with great success, as Tampa Bay sports the 28th ranked run defense. Although Chris Henry is out due to suspension, T.J. Houshmandzadeh and Chad Johnson give Palmer enough firepower to score more points than the Bucs can handle…The Bengals list Dexter Jackson (ankle, questionable), Rashad Jeanty (foot, questionable) and Levi Jones (ankle, probable) on the injury report, while the Bucs do the same with Brian Kelly (foot, questionable), Simeon Rice (shoulder, questionable) and Davin Joseph (knee, probable)… Tampa Bay has taken four straight games between these two teams, but Cincinnati is 6-1 in its last seven road games.
Predictions: Bruce Gradkowski tosses his first pick of the year but also a TD strike to Alex Smith. Cadillac Williams has a successful day on the ground, racking up more than 100 yards and a score. Rudi Johnson counters with 110 yards and a TD of his own, while Carson Palmer throws scoring strikes to both T.J. Houshmandzadeh and Chad Johnson, as Cincinnati’s offense proves too powerful. Bengals 24-17.
Tennessee (+10) at Washington, Sunday 1 p.m.
Comments: Despite being 18.5 point underdogs, the Titans nearly upset the Colts last week. Still, Tennessee sits at 0-5 and now travels to face a Washington team that will be focused after a lackluster effort against the Giants. While Vince Young kept the Titans in the game last week, his passing numbers haven’t been pretty, highlighted by his 3.0 YPA against the Colts. He still qualifies as more of a runner than passer, which is bad news for fantasy owners of Drew Bennett (ankle, questionable) and the promising Brandon Jones. Travis Henry remains the primary ball carrier, but LenDale White (stomach, questionable) will continue to see his involvement in the offense increase…The Redskins focus on the ground game, as Clinton Portis shreds the NFL’s worst run defense, which is yielding 172.4 rushing yards per game. Mark Brunell has been inconsistent, but he’s finding Chris Cooley more and should have a productive day looking to Santana Moss, as the Titans have no answer for the speedy wideout…David Givens (hand, out) and Benji Olson (ankle, questionable) show up on Tennessee’s injury report, while Shawn Springs (groin, questionable) is the only significant Washington injury.
Predictions: Vince Young turns the ball over a couple times and throws for less than 150 yards but runs for over 40 and a score. The rest of the offense gets held mostly in check. Washington centers its game plan around Clinton Portis, who rumbles for 160 yards and two touchdowns. Santana Moss hauls in another score from Brunell, making it a Washington route. Redskins 24-10.
Houston (+13.5) at Dallas, Sunday 1 p.m.
Comments: Coming off a win and then a bye, Houston travels in-state to face a Dallas team predictably dominated by Terrell Owens headlines. The biggest story for the Texans, however, has been the play of David Carr. Despite his team’s struggles, Carr flashes a 108.9 QB rating and is mustering 7.8 YPA. It’s clear he’s taking Gary Kubiak’s new system well. Andre Johnson has been football’s most impressive wide receiver so far and faces a secondary that was mauled by Philadelphia last week. Houston’s ground game, on the other hand, remains one of the worst. Ron Dayne and Samkon Gado form an uninspiring duo, allowing opposing defenses to focus on stopping the pass…It’s hard to tell who has actually looked worse, Drew Bledsoe or Dallas’ offensive line. Either way, both have played rather poorly, especially during last week’s loss to the Eagles. Houston’s defense should cure most of their ills this week, however, as it’s a unit ranked dead last in the league, surrendering 435 YPG. Julius Jones has ran effectively this year and is in line for a huge day Sunday, even if Marion Barber continues to get the goal-line looks. Terrell Owens complained about his lack of action last week, but 13 targets suggest he was the center of the game plan. Look for more passes to be accurate this week, as Owens figures to abuse a shaky Texans’ secondary.
Predictions: David Carr continues to impress, with 240 yards and two TDs, with Eric Moulds and Andre Johnson being the recipients. Johnson also adds 120 receiving yards as well. Houston’s running game remains stagnant, however, as Dayne and Gado get relatively shut down. Julius Jones, on the other hand, has a huge day, running for more than 130 yards and a score. Drew Bledsoe bounces back with a solid performance, resulting in 260 yards and two TD passes, one to Terry Glenn and the other to Terrell Owens, who also gets 130 receiving yards, helping Dallas finish the Texans. Cowboys 27-17.
Buffalo (-1) at Detroit, Sunday 1 p.m.
Comments: While personnel and the coaching staff change, the Lions’ losing ways continue just the same, as Detroit enters Week 6 with a record of 0-5. The Bills’ defense will look to force more turnovers from Jon Kitna, who has been able to produce nice yardage totals but has already lost three fumbles and thrown six picks on the year. Kevin Jones is still looking for his first 20-carry game, but he continues to produce with his receiving skills. Detroit’s 59.6 rushing yards per game ranks last in the NFL. Don’t expect the ground game to get on track this week, however, as the Lions’ offensive line is in shambles. Damien Woody (foot, out), Rex Tucker (knee, questionable) and Ross Verba (hamstring, questionable) aren’t expected to play. Roy Williams (back, probable) has missed practice throughout the week due to personal reasons, but Mike Martz expects him to suit up Sunday…The Bills’ offense has been sputtering, but a trip to Detroit can certainly change that in a hurry, as the Lions are giving up more than 265 passing yards per game. Expect Lee Evans to exploit this weakness, as the third year wideout led all NFL receivers with 14 targets last week and should have a productive day Sunday…The Bills’ Nate Clements (quadricep) and Takeo Spikes (hamstring) are listed as questionable.
Predictions: Jon Kitna again struggles with turnovers, but he does find both Roy Williams and Mike Furrey in the end zone. Kevin Jones gets 95 combined yards but doesn’t find paydirt. J.P. Losman puts up a similar line to Kitna, with the help of Lee Evans, who catches eight balls for 120 yards and two scores. Willis McGahee helps run the clock out, but he doesn’t score in the process. Bills 23-20.
Seattle (-3) at St. Louis, Sunday 1 p.m.
Comments: The Rams’ 4-1 record is misleading, and Seattle will be fired up after losing their last game 37-6. Marc Bulger, who has thrown 214 straight passes without an INT, is off to a terrific start this year. Still, it’s been mostly against weak competition, and Seattle easily qualifies as St. Louis’ toughest opponent yet. Steven Jackson is enjoying the new coaching regime, as he has yet to receive fewer than 22 carries in any game this year, which has resulted in a tie for the lead in NFL rushing yards at 465. Against Seattle’s strong front-seven, those yards will be hard fought Sunday…Shaun Alexander (foot) remains out, which means Maurice Morris gets to abuse St. Louis’ porous run defense. Jerramy Stevens returns to start at tight end, while Deion Branch is expected to move into Seattle’s starting lineup. Although Matt Hasselbeck and company may be missing Bobby Engram (illness, questionable), the offense has had two full weeks during the bye to prepare for this divisional matchup and should be able to put plenty of points on the board.
Predictions: Marc Bulger gets picked off for the first time, but manages 240 yards and two TDs, one to each Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce. Steven Jackson rushes for 90 yards, but Scott Linehan’s affection for passing in the red-zone prevents a TD. Matt Hasselbeck counters with 250 yards and TD passes to Darrell Jackson and Deion Branch. Maurice Morris surprises with 110 yards, but Mack Strong runs one in from the goal-line to seal it. Seahawks 24-20.
New York Giants (+3) at Atlanta, Sunday 1 p.m.
Comments: The Giants struggle defending the pass, but the Falcons can’t throw the ball. As far as New York’s run defense and Atlanta’s run game goes, it’s strength against strength. Still, it’s Atlanta’s defense that may be the difference here, as John Abraham (groin, questionable) looks likely to return to an already stout pass rush. Eli Manning has made major strides, and he’ll be tested yet again in a harsh Georgia Dome environment. He’s going to have to produce, as Tiki Barber and the Giants’ ground game faces the NFL’s second stingiest run defense, which is allowing a paltry 70.5 yards per game…To illustrate just how feeble Atlanta’s passing attack has been, Alge Crumpler leads the team in receptions but has caught just 41 percent of the passes thrown his way. What the Falcons lack through the air, they more than make up for on the ground, as their 234.3 rushing yards per game easily lead the NFL. Michael Vick is averaging 8.8 YPC and went for more than 100 rushing yards last time he met the Giants. Jerious Norwood (shoulder, questionable) is expected to play, but Warrick Dunn continues to get the brunt of the work…The Giants’ Jeremy Shockey (foot) is probable, while Atlanta’s Wayne Gandy (shoulder), Ed Hartwell (knee), and Allen Rossum (hamstring) are all questionable to play…Atlanta has beaten the Giants the past three times the two teams have met.
Predictions: Atlanta’s pass rush continues to hurry Eli Manning, but he’s still able to put up solid numbers. Expect 240 yards passing and a TD strike to Amani Toomer. Tiki Barber scampers for 85 yards, but Brandon Jacobs crosses the stripe. Michael Vick barely throws for 150 yards, but he does run for another 70 and a score. Warrick Dunn gets 60 yards and finds the end zone, while Jerious Norwood scores a TD as well, putting the Giants away in the process. Falcons 24-20.
Philadelphia (-3.5) at New Orleans, Sunday 1 p.m.
Comments: New Orleans has to feel disrespected being 3.5 point underdogs with a 4-1 record playing at home. Especially when you consider it’s to a team that’s played a relatively weak schedule. Still, the Eagles have beaten inferior opponents in an impressive fashion and look like one of the NFL’s elite teams so far. Drew Brees has been solid this year and faces a secondary that has given up big yardage totals. It’s a secondary returning to health, however, as only backup Roderick Hood (heel, doubtful) is at risk to miss the game. With Lito Sheppard (ankle, probable) back, look for continued improvement out of the Birds’ pass defense. When the Saints use Reggie Bush as a decoy, Deuce McAllister is often left with gaping holes, and he’s taking full advantage of it (4.8 YPC and 4 TDs on the year). Bush, meanwhile, finally scored his first touchdown and has the most receptions of anyone in the NFL…Praising Donovan McNabb’s play so far has become redundant, as we are running out of superlatives to describe his performance. It looks like Donte Stallworth (hamstring, doubtful) won’t get a shot at his former team, as he appears unlikely to suit up Sunday. Brian Westbrook (knee, questionable), on the other hand, has returned to practice this week, as the swelling in his knee has started to subside. He’s expected to play and once again presents a matchup nightmare for the Saints… Philadelphia is 5-0 in its last five games against New Orleans.
Predictions: Drew Brees throws for 240 yards and finds Marques Colston and Joe Horn in the end zone. Reggie Bush is again active in the passing game, but it’s Deuce McAllister who gets the rushing score. Donovan McNabb once again impresses, with 280 passing yards and two touchdown tosses, one to Reggie Brown and the other to L.J. Smith. A healthier Brian Westbrook goes off for 110 combined yards and a TD run, putting Philadelphia on top for good. Eagles 27-21.
San Diego (-10) at San Francisco, Sunday 4:15 p.m.
Comments: The Chargers look like legit contenders, with a stout defense and a more than capable Philip Rivers at the helm. San Francisco, however, is no pushover, especially when playing at home. Alex Smith has progressed nicely but faces a tough task in Week 6, as San Diego features both the No. 1 ranked pass D (138 YPG) and rush D (66.5 YPG). It should be a good battle between the D and Frank Gore, who is tied for the NFL lead in rushing and also leads the 49ers in receptions. He also went his first game without fumbling last week, and with Michael Robinson struggling at the goal-line, Gore may get the short yardage carries this week as well…Is LaDainian Tomlinson really a part of a running back by committee? While fantasy owners are frustrated with Michael Turner’s emergence (6.8 YPC), it does increase the likelihood of Tomlinson’s prolonged health. Antonio Gates can relate, as he’s seen his number of targets decrease significantly this year. Once their competition starts to improve, expect Rivers to look for Gates with greater frequency, as San Diego will have to start passing more. This Sunday presents a juicy matchup against a suspect 49ers secondary, but expect the ground game to be heavily featured once again, as another early lead appears likely…San Diego doesn’t have any major injuries, but San Francisco lists Larry Allen (knee, doubtful), Jonas Jennings (hand, questionable) and Derek Smith (hip, probable) on the injury report.
Predictions: Alex Smith mixes a couple turnovers in with a TD strike to Antonio Bryant. Frank Gore gets 100 yards total and finds paydirt as well. San Diego again limits Philip Rivers’ pass attempts, resulting in 220 yards and a scoring toss to Antonio Gates. LaDainian Tomlinson goes off for 150 total yards and a score, while Michael Turner adds another 50 and a TD for himself, en route to a San Diego victory. Chargers 28-20.
Chicago (-10.5) at Arizona, Monday 8:30 p.m.
Comments: Matt Leinart had quite an auspicious start to his NFL career last week, as he opened the first quarter with two TD passes right off the bat. It didn’t go quite as well after that, but it was still a step in the right direction for the franchise, as he looked Michael Vick-like compared to lead-footed Kurt Warner. This week, however, he’s going to be playing without Larry Fitzgerald, who is out with a hamstring injury. Bryant Johnson will move into the starting lineup during Fitzgerald’s absence and is a capable replacement. Although home-field on Monday night is on their side, facing the Bears’ defense should be pretty overwhelming for a rookie quarterback missing one of his main playmakers…Rex Grossman just keeps on getting it done and has an ever growing fondness for finding Bernard Berrian deep. While Berrian is averaging 21.7 yards per catch, once defenders start giving him more room at the line of scrimmage, expect the wideout to take advantage and increase his catches on underneath routes, something he’s more than capable of doing. Cedric Benson may have finally scored his first two NFL touchdowns last week, but he was still held to less than 3.5 YPC. Thomas Jones, meanwhile, has seen his YPC steadily increase throughout the year and should excel Monday against a suspect Cardinals’ run defense…Arizona lists Kendrick Clancy (ankle) as doubtful on the injury report, while Chicago lists Chris Harris (quadricep, out), Adewale Ogunleye (hamstring, questionable) and Desmond Clark (foot, probable).
Predictions: Matt Leinart doesn’t attempt too many deep routes facing the toughest defense he’s ever seen, but it still results in an INT and a lost fumble. Anquan Boldin is able to rack up nine catches for 90 yards, but Edgerrin James struggles to amass anything more than 70 combined yards. Neil Rackers provides all of the scoring for the Cards. Rex Grossman throws for 240 yards and a TD strike to Bernard Berrian, while Muhsin Muhammad gets 90 receiving yards as well. Thomas Jones adds another 100 yards on the ground and scores a touchdown in the process, making the Bears’ lead insurmountable. Bears 20-6.
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