By Dalton Del Don – Senior Writer
There are many definitions for the term sleeper, but in this case it means players who will outperform where they are typically being drafted in fantasy leagues. The busts, on the other hand, are going earlier than their performance will justify. In other words, target the sleepers and avoid the busts.
SLEEPERS
Tracy McGrady – While not your typical “sleeper,” T-Mac will come at quite a discount after a back injury ruined last year’s season. While this sort of back injury shouldn’t be taken lightly, McGrady claims a lot of his past physical problems stemmed from emotional turmoil, which he has straightened out now. Remember, he’s still only 27 years old, and with Yao Ming primed to become the NBA’s best center, McGrady won’t see constant double-teams. There isn’t a better player to target in round 2 of fantasy drafts this year.
Gerald Wallace – Although the hype machine is already in full effect, I would feel comfortable drafting Wallace as early as round 3. Yes, he’s extremely injury-prone, but contract years tend to help those types have healthy campaigns. He’s worked on his shot all summer long even though he was already an asset in FG%. His free throw shooting, however, could use some work. His steal/block ability is positively mouth-watering.
Josh Smith – Smith possesses the same upside as Gerald Wallace without the injury concerns. Entering his third year as a pro, the 20-year-old is ready to make the leap into stardom. After the All-Star break last year, J-Smoove got 15 ppg, 8 rpg, 4 apg, 1 spg, 3 bpg and 1 3pg; eye-popping numbers to be sure. If you can get Smith in the third round, consider yourself lucky.
Raymond Felton – Felton’s overall numbers last year were masked by a first half that limited his time on the floor. After the All-Star break, however, Felton was one of the elite point guards in the league. Brevin Knight is sure to see action in between injuries, but that just means Felton will play some shooting guard along with running the point. He’s too talented not to be on the court 40 minutes a night. Felton will finish the year as a top-10 point guard.
Shaun Livingston – Livingston can be drafted much later than the names previously mentioned on this list, but it will likely be the last year that’s possible, as the kid is full of talent. Sam Cassell re-signed with the Clips, but it’s only a matter of time before the aging veteran hands over the keys to the offense to Livingston, who will become an assists machine once it happens.
Kenyon Martin – K-Mart was one of the bigger busts last year and has been mostly forgotten as a result. Still, with his knee injury and icy relationship with coach George Karl mostly mended, Martin can’t be totally ignored. He’s often going well past round 10, which qualifies as a late round steal when he returns to form.
David West – West broke out last year, and his game figures only to continue to improve. Entering his contract year, he even added a three-point shot to his repertoire over the summer. Chris Paul loves him and knows exactly when and where to get him the ball. West is undervalued entering the year and is one of the best free throw shooters of any power forward in the league.
Eddy Curry – It’s tough recommending a center who doesn’t rebound or block shots very well, but if you can nab Curry in the later rounds, he could easily become a viable No. 2 center for your team. For all his faults, Curry is actually one of the better scoring big men in the league, and he’s a big help in FG% as well. Last year’s disappointing numbers are more than partially due to only seeing 25 minutes of run each night, courtesy of jettisoned Larry Brown. Enter Isiah Thomas, who not only loves Curry but has too much invested in him to not give him all the playing time Curry can handle.
BUSTS
Amare Stoudemire – One of the most exciting players in the league, Stoudemire is a confounding draft choice to consider this year. One week Stoudemire is declaring himself 100 percent healed from microfracture surgery on his knee, the next week he’s sitting out a game due to knee soreness. Bottom line, owners should expect flashes of greatness with some knee concerns mixed in when dealing with Stoudemire this year. Expect 60 games played, which isn’t what you want out of your second or third round pick.
Jermaine O’Neal – O’Neal worked hard this offseason in hopes of improving his health, but it’s an uphill battle at this point. After missing 69 games over the last two years, O’Neal’s injury concerns are legitimate. Combine that with a nagging hamstring ailment already suffered during the preseason, and O’Neal becomes someone to avoid early on in drafts. Take Dwight Howard instead.
Mike James – After a season in which he scored more than 20 a night, including a remarkable 24.6 ppg after the All-Star break, James is going awfully early in some fantasy leagues. Don’t forget, however, that those career-year numbers came when James was the top dog in a Toronto offense void of many scoring threats. James will be a solid option, just don’t expect nearly the same kind of scoring output while donning a new Timberwolves’ jersey.
Adam Morrison – Morrison carries some name recognition, and he should be able to score in the NBA game; problem is, scoring might be the only category he contributes in. There’s also a real possibility Morrison finds himself on the bench at the start of games, as the Bobcats are deeper than most realize. Unless terrible moustaches is a category in your fantasy league, it’s best to avoid Morrison this year.
Luke Ridnour – Do not underestimate Earl Watson’s presence here. Ridnour can drop dimes with the best of them, but he plays defense as if he’s a matador. Ridnour may start, but Watson will cut into his minutes and is clearly the superior defender.
Tony Parker – Parker is one of the better NBA point guards around, but his lack of steals and threes really hinders his fantasy value. He’s being treated as elite, something three-category players are not. While he sports the best FG% of any point guard, he counters that with poor free throw shooting. Let someone else overpay.
Sam Cassell – Cassell, who typically plays under one-year contracts, re-signed with the Clippers for two years, which is at least something to consider. He’s also about to be 37 years old, has Shaun Livingston breathing down his neck and looks like an alien. Already struggling with a calf injury this preseason, Cassell is someone to avoid on draft day.
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