ALCS/NLCS Previews

After my impressive Division Series performance, I look to continue my streak with some Championship Series predictions. First, we’ll start with the American League:

Detroit vs. Oakland

Comments: While I wasn’t surprised to see Oakland advance, I was rather shocked to see Detroit knock off the Yankees – in an impressive fashion I might add. The Tigers proved me wrong in the regular season and continue to do so in the postseason. I finally believe. Their pitching just plain gets it done. Their similarity to last year’s White Sox’ team is uncanny; they weren’t even close to favorites, jumped out to a big AL Central lead, faltered the final six weeks, but then regained momentum come playoff time. The comparisons might have to stop there, however, as Oakland is going to be tough to beat. Detroit won the regular season series 5-4, but their decision to throw Nate Robertson Game 1 might be a series-costing mistake. He’s a notorious poor second-half pitcher and has a 5.46 career ERA against the A’s. The decision also means Kenny Rogers, who is 23-1 at Oakland since 1995, doesn’t pitch until Game 3 in Comerica, and Jeremy Bonderman (arguably their best hurler) will only be available once throughout the series…Placido Polanco absolutely owns the A’s, batting a career .493 against them (33-for-67)…Kenny Rogers and Justin Verlander each allowed only one steal all season, but the A’s don’t run anyway…Jeremy Bonderman may have some extra incentive; remember, he had a prominent role in “Moneyball.” Billy Beane allegedly threw a chair at a wall when the A’s scouting director selected Bonderman – a high school pitcher – in the first round of the 2001 amateur draft. Beane traded Bonderman to Detroit a year later in a three-team swap that brought Ted Lilly to Oakland…Esteban Loaiza gets the call Game 2, and since he’s 7-2 with a 3.16 ERA since Aug. 1, it’s probably the right move…Rich Harden is the series’ biggest wild card. He again had a subpar performance in an instructional league game Monday and hasn’t pitched in a big league game since Oct. 1. He’s capable of dominance, but is a bit of an unknown at this point. The A’s are actually still undecided if he’ll go Game 3 or Game 4; the thinking being, if Harden goes Game 4, there’s no chance he’ll be available Game 7, but if Dan Haren goes Game 4, both he and Harden would be available Game 7, since Haren is more likely to be able to go on short rest. It allows them to have much more flexibility…Detroit is no joke, but Oakland ultimately takes the series.

Athletics 4-3

St. Louis vs. New York Mets

Comments: Both teams enter far from healthy. While the Mets are missing Pedro Martinez, Orlando Hernandez and possibly Cliff Floyd, the Cardinals are without Jason Isringhausen, Mark Mulder and have a banged up Jim Edmonds and Scott Rolen. Expect a high scoring series here, as both Jeff Weaver and Oliver Perez might get starts in a series deciding the National League champion. New York won the regular season series 4-2, but this will be the Cardinals’ third consecutive trip to the NLCS. Still, this team hardly resembles those squads, as the Cardinals finished with just an 83-78 record this year. They won’t be doormats, however, as they will make a series out of it…The Cardinals are throwing Jeff Suppan Game 2, even though his home/road splits (3.18/5.36 ERA) suggest they should do all they can to give him a start in St. Louis…Tony La Russa’s decision to throw Chris Carpenter Game 4 of the NLDS wasn’t a bad one, but it does mean Carpenter won’t be available until Game 3, although that means he could go in a possible Game 7 as well…The Cardinals’ bullpen was considered a weakness heading into the playoffs but tossed 11 1/3 scoreless innings during the NLDS…I know Anthony Reyes has been largely disappointing, but I still say he has the talent to spin a gem during this series…The Mets led all of baseball in scoring and face a poor road team with homefield advantage, it’s New York’s series to lose.

Mets 4-2.


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13 responses to “ALCS/NLCS Previews”

  1. Keith Avatar
    Keith

    I’m obviously rooting for the A’s, but do think it should be a great matchup. Game 1 is important for the A’s since it’s the pitching matchup that most favors them. I really do think Rogers and Bonderman pitched the games of their careers against the Yankees…but the A’s really do bring out the best in both of them. I was at an A’s/Tigers game several years ago when the Tigers had the worst record in baseball (A’s had one of the best) and had lost something like 16 in a row, with Bonderman facing Zito (I think it was the year after his Cy Young), and I remember thinking it was as probable a win as could be. Bonderman lost 19 games that year, but outdueled Zito (I found the box score 04/23/03: 8 IP, 3 H, 0 BB). I think that Moneyball scene has motivated him a lot (although Beane swears he was angry because Chris Burke got picked before). Rogers, despite his Oakland mastery, doesn’t scare me quite as much, because I think his deal with the devil was for 1 game only, and the A’s have a much better lineup against lefties (I hope Kielty gets some AB’s). Verlander is somewhat of a wild card as well, because he wore down a lot during the stretch, and is definitely in uncharted territory as far as innings. However, he probably has the best pure stuff in the series…aside from Harden, I think, and if he can harness it…look out. If the A’s make him throw a lot of pitches, I think they can be successful. Polanco is a mystery to me. There are a lot of guys who I swear murder the A’s, then I look at the stats and realize I just have a selective memory…not with him. He basically hits .500 against them every season…it’s absurd. I also think the A’s losing Ellis is going to hurt some…he was a pesky batter at the bottom of the order, and his defense is unmatched. The A’s need to keep the pop at the bottom of the Tiger’s order quiet…it’s pretty obscene to see how many HR’s the 7-9 hitters have in their typical lineup.

    Before their respective ALDS series, I would have definitely picked the A’s. Having watched the Tigers dominate the Yankees, it’s tempting to look at them in a new light, but I’m not sure they can duplicate those pitching efforts (actually, I hope Robertson duplicates his!), whereas I don’t think the A’s really played over their heads (though maybe you can count on key Marco Scutaro doubles every game). My pick is the A’s in 6, but every game will be a battle!

  2. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    Good stuff Keith. Unfortunately, it’s 5-0 Tigers right now. And like you said, this is def. a game the A’s should/need to win. They really miss Ellis’ defense already.

  3. Keith Avatar
    Keith

    Yuck…what a stinker. I missed most of Zito’s performance…but it sounded like he was getting squeezed on breaking pitches, which he really needs to be called to be effective. That being said, if he’s behind in the count, he really loses his effectiveness, and the Tigers were good about not chasing too much out of the zone. Considering how badly the A’s played, that was a very winnable game. I can’t believe they couldn’t score a run in those first 5 innings, and that was definitely not a typical defensive performance (Chavez botched a play he normally makes too, not that it was a gimme). Hopefully my presence will rally the troops tonight though!!

    Trying to think about more positive things…I’m still trying to turn my surplus RB’s into something in my yardage-heavy league. TE has been a problem for me. From here on out, I figure Winslow and Gates should be the most consistent…would you put anybody else in their league? I figure Heap is 3rd, but I don’t think he’ll put up as much yardage, but is still a good red zone guy. I’m worried that Gates isn’t going to have a monster year with Marty at the helm. Chad Johnson makes for a pretty decent buy-low guy, don’t you think? Any other decent ~WR1 types that you think could be had for a T. Jones type, maybe packaged with Branch or someone?

  4. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    Exactly, Detroit was atypically very patient. Once the A’s started making those defensive misplays, Zito kind of unraveled. They definitely need to take tonight’s game.

    Ya I agree with your TE assessment, with maybe LJ Smith as another possibility who probably wouldn’t cost you quite as much. I still think Gates finishes as the #1 TE this year, but it does look like he won’t be duplicating his last 2 seasons. Still, if his owner panics, go get him. Chad Johnson makes for a great buy low candidate, his value will never be lower than right now.

    What about T.O.? He has pretty big name recognition obviously, but he hasn’t produced this year, so he’s def. someone to target as a buy low right now. If you can get Roy Williams, Plax Burress or Andre Johnson, I’d say do that as well.

    If all those fail, I’d say then move to either Houshamdzadeh or Wayne, while a RB1 might be worth a little more than those, in your situation, it’s worth pulling the trigger here.

  5. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    Hey Keith, will you explain to me why Macha refuses to play Kielty? I understand Kotsay’s center field defense is very good, but I still think it’s a move that has to be made against southpaws.

  6. Keith Avatar
    Keith

    The Kielty question is a big one…but it’s a tough call. Kielty, according to the stats, is the A’s 2nd best hitter against lefties…my eyes might tell me he’s their best, but he is below average in the OF. Kotsay is an underrated defensive CF (he takes such good routes and get such good jumps that he rarely has to dive to make a play that many OF’ers wouldn’t even reach…and he never dives for show…I’m looking at you Mr. Edmonds!), and the formula for the A’s this year has been pitching and defense (rather than OBP, “D” is Beane’s current undervalued market commodity). So, I understand that with such a defensive discrepancy, and with a fly ball pitcher on the mound vs. a team that hits a lot of fly balls, OF defense is important…but while Kotsay’s lefty/righty splits are pretty close,R obertson’s stats against lefties are impressive; he really shuts them down. Macha also seems stubbornly loyal to his vets (Melhuse really should have gotten more starts over Kendall, and Chavy should have had more breaks as well).

    It’s tough to go against a formula that’s gotten you there, but I would have liked to see Kielty in there too. It’ll be interesting to see if he’s in there against Rogers for game 3.

    Thanks for the football advice…and I’d forgot about LJ, he probably belongs up there too. I’ve made my plays for the Johnsons (Chad and Andre), and I’m not sure if they’ll work out, but it’s still open. I’m worrying more about TO as he (and Mr. Bledsoe) really didn’t look very good this past weekend. Besides, in the end his owner wanted to do TO/Favre/Rhodes for T. Jones/Vick/Branch, and I don’t want to mess with Favre when Vick’s rushing yards are killer in a yardage-heavy league. I might have to reconsider that one though.

  7. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    No I agree, Kotsay is legit defensively…And that formula is definitely the way the A’s have been winning all year long, but with four games against lefties this series possibly, Keilty has got to start some of them.

    T.O. is getting targeted a ton, and I really do think he’ll start putting up big numbers, but Bledsoe’s inability to elude the rush and lack of blocking are major concerns…But I agree, I wouldn’t do that deal with the Vick for Favre swap, no way.

  8. Eddie Avatar
    Eddie

    After looking at the first round of predictions, I’m liking the chances for my Cardinals.

  9. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    Ya man, what can I say, just a dreadful performance by me so far. And sure enough, Detroit is off to a 1-0 lead. Cardinals will probably sweep them now.

  10. Keith Avatar
    Keith

    Ouch…that game hurt. I thought losing Ellis would be what hurt the A’s most deffensively, but apparently Chavy is actually fielding with his Gold Glove this series. Personally, I think Leyland is overrated as a manager (not that I think he’s bad), but my God…whatever he does just seems to work wonders. I don’t know how you bench Thames, who’s been such an impressive hitter this year, and the nobody they throw in there gets 4 RBI’s (though his 2 RBI single was a joke…thanks Chavy). That HR he hit was a killer, as I thought Loaiza was finally settling down. Well, it’s time to see what Harden can do…maybe they’ll find a way to take 2 out of 3 in Detroit, but wow…they’re not looking too good. Hopefully Swisher and Thomas will wake up in the cold weather.

  11. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    Yeah, what is Chavez’ deal? He’s seriously costing them this series. Nice Gold Glove line…You’re also right about Leyland, no matter what he does it seems to work brilliantly….Now hopefully you even get to use any of your remaining tickets….Game 3 was just switched to 1:30 PST, weird.

  12. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    Oakland has been getting breaks too – Not that Casey has been good or anything, but if it means Neifi Perez is batting 2nd in the lineup, it’s certainly a downgrade. Now Zumaya’s status is uncertain.

  13. Keith Avatar
    Keith

    When I saw Neifi batting 2nd, I almost lost it. Of course, when I saw whoever it was at DH, I thought that was a mistake too. I thought it very strange when I saw that Zumaya wasn’t warming up last night, but Rodney is definitely no slouch, and the A’s hit Zumaya well the night before, so I don’t think it’s huge. If Casey’s absence means Neifi stays in the 2-hole, I’ll be ecstatic. I think the series comes back to Oakland.

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