By Dalton Del Don – Senior Writer
There have been two particularly strong baseball bets this year. The first came about six weeks ago, when the Vegas line had the Minnesota Twins as 30/1 long shots to win the World Series. They may have been 8-10 games out of a playoff spot, but any team with Johan Santana, Francisco Liriano and that bullpen had to be taken a little more seriously. If they somehow sneaked into a playoff spot, which was always a possibility with the uncertain Tigers leading their division, the Twins might have even entered as favorites. Now with Justin Morneau turning into a MVP candidate, that 30/1 bet would be looking pretty sweet, considering you’d get worse odds betting on the Arizona Cardinals to win the Super Bowl this year (25/1). The Twins currently are at 6/1. With Francisco Liriano going down for what looks like the season, that bet has certainly lost its luster, so it’s time to move onto my favorite one of the year – the Angels to win the World Series.
I am not an Angels fan; in fact, I picked the A’s to win the World Series before the season started and will continue to root for them. Still, the reality of the situation is, without a healthy Rich Harden and an anemic offense, Oakland will ultimately fall short and disappoint yet again. With the wild card out of the question, the Angels will have to win the West just to make it to the postseason.
The Angels’ current odds sit at 22/1. Now I’m not guaranteeing a World Series title here, but I am saying you won’t find a better long shot bet in quite some time. Comparatively speaking, the Baltimore Ravens and San Diego Chargers are more favored to win the Super Bowl, and we are in August. Sticking to baseball, which is a better bet than football right now anyway, considering how much sooner their championship game is, the Cincinnati Reds are seen to have a better chance at the title than the Angels, according to the lines. The San Diego Padres and Arizona Diamondbacks aren’t too far behind either. The point is, the Angels have a much better chance to win it all this year than their odds indicate.
First with the negatives: Anaheim has committed the most errors in the entire American League, and defense is especially magnified come playoff time. Bartolo Colon is done for the year. Ervin Santana just left Thursday’s game after taking a line drive off his knee. They are 3 1/2 games out of the AL West lead. They will be relying on a group of youngsters, as Jered Weaver, Joe Saunders and Howie Kendrick will each play integral roles during the stretch run.
Now onto the positives: The A’s are vulnerable and 90 wins should easily take this division. Their season ends with a four-game series against Oakland, in Anaheim. While their offense remains a question mark, it will be more productive from here on out for two reasons – Kendrick is legit, and Juan Rivera is finally coming into his own. Since the start of July, Rivera is batting .357 with 14 jacks and 36 RBI. Their lineup is still the weak link, but it will be enough to get it done.
Scot Shields and K-Rod make it a seven-inning game. Much like the Yankees, you better be ahead of the Angels before the latter innings or consider it game over. Scot Shields, who once threw 261 pitches over 16 innings in one game back in college, is still one of the best setup guys around, and K-Rod remains virtually unhittable. The true reason I like the Angels’ chances this year, however, is their starting rotation. John Lackey, Ervin Santana, Kelvim Escobar and Jered Weaver form a top-four that no other team can match. Joe Saunders is the best No. 5 starter of any playoff rotation as well, but that probably won’t matter when teams switch to the four man rotation. It does, however, make their bullpen that much deeper.
Assuming the White Sox win the wild card, the Angels would face the Tigers in the ALDS, a team ripe for an upset. If they get the Yankees next, well, the Halos are 2-0 against them in the playoffs since 2002. In summation, the Angels probably won’t win the World Series this year, but in my estimation, they have about as good a chance as anyone, and at 22/1 odds, I’m ready to make Vegas pay for their oversight.
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