Sleeping Giants

By Dalton Del Don – Senior Writer

Every year a player will be picked in the middle rounds of your fantasy draft who vastly outperforms where they were selected. It’s inevitable when dealing with a sport as volatile as football, and it’s guaranteed to happen again this year. The winner of your fantasy league, more often than not, is the one who found himself with one of these mid-round gems, not the guy who did a better job deciding between two similar first round talents. The ability to distinguish the players most likely to fall under this category is the key. All will possess question marks, which is why you are able to get them after the first couple of rounds. They also possess huge upside, which is exactly what you should be targeting once those first few rounds are in the books.

Joseph Addai – By all accounts, Addai has been unspectacular so far this preseason, averaging a pedestrian 1.67 YPC (12 carries for 20 yards). Still, his main competition, Dominic Rhodes, isn’t faring much better himself, averaging just 2.5 yards per tote (10 carries for 25 yards). Coaches have been effusive in their praise of Addai, with Tony Dungy already stating Addai is a better blocker of the two, a skill that’s imperative in the Colts’ offensive scheme. Addai has also impressed Peyton Manning by frequently showing up at the quarterback’s doorstep to go over the playbook. Addai is also a better receiver than Rhodes, which is already being displayed in the fake games, as Addai has three catches for 28 yards, while Rhodes has yet to catch a single ball. It’s true Rhodes had a fine season five years ago, when he rushed for 1,100 yards. But the truth is, he’s a former undrafted player who hasn’t been the same since ACL surgery. The guy averaged 3.0 YPC last year. Edgerrin James is a great back, but it’s pretty evident he has lost a step since his own knee surgery; nevertheless, he was able to put up over 1,800 total yards and 14 touchdowns last year, while basically sitting out the final three weeks of the season. The potential is there for a Colts’ running back to put up monstrous numbers, and Indy didn’t draft Addai in the first round to sit him. This year will be the lowest Addai goes in fantasy drafts for many to come. Take advantage of it.

Laurence Maroney – One should really take preseason games with a grain of salt, but it’s hard not to like the way Maroney has been running. His eye-popping moves, elusiveness and speed make Corey Dillon look even more sluggish than usual. Dillon is determined to prove to the media that he isn’t too old and can still be a productive back in this league, but more often than not, age beats out fortitude. And no doubt, the guy can still get it done at the stripe. Last year Dillon reached paydirt nine times in just 11 attempts inside the five-yard line, good for the highest percentage in the league. Looking at the preseason numbers, however, this battle isn’t even close. Both have carried the ball 15 times, with Maroney gaining 94 yards and Dillon just 53 yards. Maroney has been getting plenty of time with the first unit, so it’s not even about the competition here. I realize it’s hard to recommend a guy who won’t reach his true potential unless an injury strikes, but Dillon has been increasingly prone to nagging injuries ever since his 434-touch season at age 30. It’s also entirely possible Dillon, a known malcontent, doesn’t respond well to giving up carries to a rookie and causes a stir, something Bill Belichick won’t put up with. As I see it, Maroney’s mid-round upside is unparralled in redraft leagues. As for keeper leaguers, depending on format, he could easily be worthy of a first round selection.

Frank Gore – Gore is officially no longer a “sleeper” now that Kevan Barlow has been shipped to New York. Admittedly, San Francisco’s offense keeps his ceiling from being too high, but Gore has the ability to be a solid RB2/RB3 this year. The main problem with Gore is that he’s injury-prone, requiring surgery on both of his knees during college and on both of his shoulders during this past offseason. His impressive 4.8 YPC last year on a team with by far the worst passing attack in the league, however, reveals some serious skills when healthy. With Alex Smith bound to improve and the additions of Antonio Bryant and Vernon Davis to the receiving corps, San Francisco could actually resemble an NFL team this year. Additionally, the offensive line even added Larry Allen and Jonas Jennings returns from injury, so that unit might transform from awful to bad. Gore is the type of player who won’t inspire fantasy owners, so wait until the middle rounds and draft yourself a player who will outperform his average draft position.

Greg Jones – Of all the running backs you can get later on in your draft, Jones has the best chance of getting significant carries this year. At minimum, he appears to be Jacksonville’s goal line back, but there’s potential for much more here. Jones recently stated he is only now fully recovered from his ACL surgery, which he had three years ago. It’s not uncommon for a player with such an injury to take this long to fully regain explosiveness, and in Jones’ case, he says it’s back now for the first time as a pro. Even if Fred Taylor wins the starting job, something that isn’t a foregone conclusion at this point, his body is more fragile than Tony Kornheiser’s ego after someone criticizes his Monday Night Football performance. Everyone knows about Taylor’s injury past; after all, he’s only had one 300-carry season in his career, and after turning 30, he’s unlikely to get more durable. Maurice Drew and Alvin Pearman are scat backs who are suited for third down duty, not as every down backs. So when, not if, Taylor goes down, or maybe even before, Jones will be the Jaguars’ running back of choice. Let someone else draft Taylor, then grab Jones a few rounds later.