Archive for August, 2006

Mock Draft Observations

Friday, August 4th, 2006

Yours truly participated in RotoWire’s Mock Draft Thursday, and while every draft is different, this one represented a good idea of what to expect in yours later this month. The following are highlights of the draft, which was a standard 12 team, 15 rounds, but with non-PPR scoring.

The No. 12 pick landed both Lamont Jordan and Steven Jackson – This was pretty ridiculous, as most people picking at the end of their draft will not be so lucky. The guy then went and got Chris Chambers and Roy Williams in rounds three and four, making it about as good a draft through four rounds as possible.

I do not like the No. 5 spot – This was my draft slot, and I lucked out, as Tiki Barber went fourth, and I was happy to get Clinton Portis at five. If Portis had gone fourth, however, I would have hated this position. I am passing on Barber this year, as I see his age and lack of goal line carries too much of a risk for a top-five selection. I would have taken Jordan here if Portis was gone, but even that pick wouldn’t have been great considering it wasn’t a PPR league, and that’s where Jordan excels.

Julius Jones went 10th overall – Jones is one of my favorite targets this year, and nearly every magazine has him rated somewhere between 15-25 on their RB rankings. But during the two drafts I’ve completed so far, he’s gone No. 14 and now No. 10. He’s certainly not coming as cheap as anticipated.

17 of the first 19 picks were RBs – Now I know backs typically go early and often, but they were flying off the board at an incredibly high rate here. This meant Steve Smith and Torry Holt were available after the top-20 picks. By the time my pick came back in the second round, Julius Jones, Willis McGahee, Reggie Bush, Domanick Davis, Kevin Jones and Chester Taylor were all gone.

Jamal Lewis was pick No. 60 – I’m not big on Jamal Lewis this year, but getting him this late is real good value. Word is Mike Anderson is already getting turned into a fullback.

Neil Rackers was taken in the ninth round – With the first pick in the ninth, to boot. Mike Vanderjagt soon followed at the end of the round. Rackers is the man, don’t get me wrong, but it amazes me when someone takes a kicker before the final round, let alone this early.

Overview – If you want a good backfield, you better draft a back with your first two picks. If you don’t get the coveted top-three, a late first round pick looks best.

Benchwarmers

Thursday, August 3rd, 2006

By Robby Wellington – Staff Writer

Assuming that you’ve done your homework and ranked your players at their respective positions, drafting in fantasy football is a pretty simple process. All you have to do is pick the top guy whose name hasn’t yet been crossed out. However, once the top talent is off the board, the big question is how should you go about filling out the all-important bench spots. Below is a brief guide.

(Note: All comments below are based on 15 player team with a starting roster of 1 QB, 2 RBs, 2 WRs, 1RB/WR, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 Def and 6 bench spots).

First off, anyone carrying more than one kicker really should not be allowed in your league. If you notice any such team, apply the weakest gazelle principle and go after them with countless 3-for-1 trades until you’ve stripped them of their top talent. And unless you’re in a league that rewards defenses heavily, you can probably get away with only having one defense. In fact, you can probably treat defense like a kicker, draft one late, and rotate your starter on a weekly basis based on which free agent has the best matchup.

Unless you see a quality guy really slip, it’s probably best to stick to one tight end as well. The position is deeper than ever this year, and you can probably wait until the end of your draft to snag a solid guy.

Wide receivers and running backs on your bench depend quite a bit on whether your league supports the 3 WR format or the flex. With a flex, you probably don’t want any more than two wide receivers riding pine. With your bench, it’s all about upside, which lower level running backs invariably have more of than wide receivers. A running back with a decent chance at taking over a cushy starting job possesses more value than a wide receiver who you know is good for 800 yards and five touchdowns, especially when there’s a guy on waivers good for 750 and four.

One of the great fallacies of fantasy football is that it is important to draft a starting quarterback and then wait a handful of rounds to draft his backup. Quarterback is the easiest position to predict output based on opponent (more on this next week), and therefore, it is always a prudent play to pick up two to three mid level guys and start whoever has the cushiest matchup. The mix-and-match starting strategy should surpass all but the top couple of quarterbacks’ season totals. It’s also important to note that the shallower a league’s bench, the more value Peyton Manning and Tom Brady have, as they are probably the only two safe plug-and-play quarterbacks available this year.

So, the ideal bench in the above format should have 2-3 running backs, 2 wide receivers and 1-2 quarterbacks. The late rounds are still important, so draft wisely.

Talking Turkey

Tuesday, August 1st, 2006

By Robby Wellington – Staff Writer

The trading deadline came and went with a flurry of activity that actually had a fairly insignificant impact on the fantasy landscape. That is unless you’re in one of those silly NL/AL only leagues, in which case Carlos Lee, Bobby Abreu and even Julio Lugo caused some major waves. I don’t exactly understand the whole “a guy switches leagues so his team loses him” concept. Why don’t you just let the league-switching player continue to be available in your fantasy league, or does that somehow ruin the integrity and purity of having NL/AL only. But I digress; onto the moves, or at least the major ones.

Bobby Abreu and Corey Lidle got shipped out to New York and, as previously noted on RotoScoop, the Yankee lineup should be ferocious come fall. That said, Sheffield and Godzilla are suffering from the same ailment as my main man Derrek Lee, and we all see how seamlessly he has recovered from that sore wrist (sorry, another quick tangent: I now have Lee, Sheffield and Harden on my team with only two DL spots, and I am seriously looking at dropping Lee. What a waste). Anyway, Abreu’s value will receive a very slight bump as he is in a better lineup, but not by much, as hitting between Chase Utley and Ryan Howard really was not too shabby. The park effects, short porch and all, seem to be negligible. Lidle should see a spike in his wins, so upgrade him a bit as well, but there is a long list of pitchers who simply crumbled under the pressure of throwing in the Bronx. Utley, Howard and company, though hot right now, will certainly miss Abreu and his remarkable .427 OBP in the lineup. Which brings me to another aspect of this trade. Since when did the Phillies become a small-market team? I understand that Abreu is owed a lot of money next year, but this is money that is essentially commensurate with his skill set, slightly eroding as it may be. Not to mention, Corey Lidle is a solid, if unspectacular pitcher. A bad team is going to win the NL wild card this year, and with the Phillies only a few games out and budding superstars Utley and Howard coming on strong, they seemed to have as good a chance as anyone. That was, of course, until they traded away Rheal Cormier to the amazingly talented Cincinnati bullpen. Yikes.

Carlos Lee’s big year should get even bigger, as he’ll benefit from the positive effects of hitting at friendly Ameriquest Field. Effects that many folks are still waiting for Mark Teixeira to feel (his OPS is 160 points lower at home than on the road this season, after being 300 points higher last year). Francisco Cordero should step right into the closer’s role in Milwaukee and hold it down the rest of the season, assuming he doesn’t return to his April meltdown form at any point. Happy trails Turnbow. Kevin Mench should enjoy a solid starting gig now in Milwaukee and continue to put up decent enough numbers to grab the final outfield spot on someone’s fantasy team. A move to the cleanup spot certainly can’t hurt.

Greg Maddux’ season fell by the fantasy wayside after a brilliant April, that is until he was dealt to the pitcher’s paradise that is the NL West. Unless Maddux is throwing at Arizona, go ahead and start him. The Dodgers also grabbed Julio Lugo, who should see a decrease in value for the same reasons Maddux’ value rises. The Dodgers paid a relatively steep price for Lugo’s services, especially with Jeff Kent coming back soon, but I like the move, assuming they can lock him up for a few more years. The sagging Dodgers really did give themselves some serious hope in what is still a wide-open division.