After giving out my midseason awards, I figure it’s time for some predictions on what’s to come. The following is how I see the playoff picture unfolding. Unfortunately, these teams don’t exactly match the ones I predicted entering the season.
NL West: Los Angeles Dodgers – A much, much better division from top to bottom than last year’s pathetic version, the NL West has every team in the playoff hunt. The Padres are a surprising eight games over .500, and that’s with Jake Peavy sporting a 4-8 record. The Giants would have a fighting chance if everyone stayed healthy, but that’s not likely. The Dodgers look like the team to beat here. Remember when everyone gave Paul DePodesta a hard time for trading for that scrub Brad Penny? The Dodges win the West because of it.
NL Central: St. Louis Cardinals – Not too much doubt here, as the Cards remain the class of the Central division. The Reds certainly hurt their playoff chances with their recent trade, giving away two very useful position players for middle relief help won’t get it done. The Brewers really needed a healthy Ben Sheets this year to truly contend; now, I see them unloading Carlos Lee. The Astros will be right in the thick of the Wild Card race, but more on that later.
NL East: New York Mets – The easiest pick of all, as the Mets have built an insurmountable first half lead. I am still surprised by their success with such a weak bottom of the rotation, but it’s safe to say the NL East will be won by a team other than the Braves for the first time since 1990. Speaking of the Braves, I am not ruling out a Wild Card run by them. I want to say the same about the Phillies, but I get the feeling they are going to be sellers rather than buyers at the trade deadline. The Nationals have a surprisingly strong lineup all of a sudden, but the John Patterson injury is a killer.
NL Wild Card: Houston Astros – This battle involves approximately 11 teams. I actually do think the Braves have a chance here, but my money is on the Astros. Although they currently have the worst batting average in the NL, Houston has the pitching to make it. Andy Pettitte is the key, as he needs to turn it around. Ideally, Morgan Ensberg gets healthy and mans third while newly acquired Aubrey Huff stays in the lineup at a corner outfield spot. With that said, a number of teams could take this Wild Card spot.
AL West: Los Angeles Angels – The A’s have a strong team and could still easily take this division; after all, they are always a better team after the All-Star break. Losing Rich Harden is the difference maker here, as I see the A’s losing to the Halos in a battle that comes down to the very end. The Angels just received a blow themselves, however, having to put Kelvim Escobar on the shelf with an elbow injury. Still, their top four in the rotation is pretty tough to beat, assuming Colon at least resembles the pitcher he was last year. Their lineup is admittedly weak, but with one of the most talented farm systems, the Angels are in good position to either trade for offensive help, or turn to Howie Kendrick for contributions.
AL Central: Chicago White Sox – I’m hardly the only one calling for a Detroit second half fall, but there are still plenty of people out there convinced they are for real and will make a run in the postseason. While the Tigers do have a very solid squad and one I vastly underrated going into the year, look for them to ultimately fall just short of making the playoffs. Kenny Rogers’ ERA has jumped over a full run in the second half for two years in a row, including a 2.18 hike last year. Justin Verlander has never pitched more than 130 innings in a season at any level ever – he’s over 110 already. The White Sox, meanwhile, are the best team in baseball. I actually see them running away with this division. If I were forced to choose, the White Sox are my favorites to win it all yet again this year.
AL East: Boston Red Sox – Do not count the Yankees out. The Red Sox, however, are healthier and have a better pitching staff. Not to mention their lineup is absolutely loaded still. The Blue Jays will hang around all year but are destined for a third place finish. The Yankees have taken the division title for eight straight years; this time around they’ll have to settle for the Wild Card.
AL Wild Card: New York Yankees – The Indians are having quite a disappointing season. The A’s could make a run here if they do indeed fall short in the West. But with the Tigers’ huge lead in the loss column, this is their spot to lose. I really like the Twins’ team, but they have quite the hole to climb out of at this point. Them not making the postseason would be good news for the rest of the league. I see the Yankees ultimately making it over the Tigers. While clearly a flawed team, New York will be active in the trade market to fill some holes and still have enough firepower in their lineup to do some damage. Randy Johnson repeating last year’s second half performance would go a long way as well.
Leave a Reply