RotoScoop.com

By Robby Wellington – Staff Writer

Below are some general thoughts and tips regarding trading. Some may seem pretty obvious, but hopefully there are a few new things to think about. . .

Less is More

As a general rule of trading, the team that acquires the fewer number of players in a trade usually gets the better deal. Not that I am saying that you should systematically avoid trading away a player or two for a few more guys, but you should definitely be wary of making these deals.

On the other hand, the 2-for-1 trade is a staple of top fantasy teams. Not only do you improve your top star talent with such deals, but you also free up the end-of-bench roster spots to remain active on the waiver wires and hopefully grab more guys who you can then use to lure even more star talent to your team.

Don’t Get Caught up in “Buy Low and Sell High”

Two weeks ago I had just nabbed Corey Patterson off waivers in a somewhat shallow league and was trying desperately to package him in one of the aforementioned 2-for-1 trades, angling to get an upgrade at any position, no matter how slight. Well, after his recent stolen base binge, Patterson is ranked ninth among fantasy outfielders (seventh if you discount Soriano and Cabrera) in Yahoo’s admittedly dubious scoring system, and I still don’t think that I can command fair value for the guy.

In a nutshell, the whole “buy low and sell high” mentality can sometimes create the opposite effect, where overachieving players are in fact undervalued because no one wants to be the guy stuck with a player who immediately cools off. Sometimes you just need to stick with the hot “overachieving” player and hope he can keep it up.

Always Make a Counter Offer and Use the Message Feature

If someone makes you an offer, don’t just simply reject it (or worse, let it sit there), make a counter offer, even if it will probably get rejected. Also, if your league allows messages to accompany trade offers, be sure to use that feature to better specify what you want.

(Almost) Never Make Your Final Offer Your First Offer

This varies from manager to manager. Obviously, you aren’t going to offer a good friend or a respectable player a laughably bad deal, but if you’re willing to give up your third best outfielder in a trade, go ahead and see if they’ll take your fourth best guy first. Then, when you later sweeten the deal, they’ll be more inclined to bite.

Exploit Those Who Make Bad Trades

If someone in your league makes a bad trade, go after any worthwhile players on their team as soon as possible. Why complain about a firesale when you can take part in it?

By Dalton Del Don – Senior Writer

Forget what you think you know about how to judge a pitcher’s merits. Essentially, strikeouts, walks, and home runs are even more important than you think. Sure, every true baseball fan knows that the “wins” category is overrated when it comes to how well a pitcher has thrown. It simply relies on too many extraneous factors. Still, let’s go ahead and take a quick look at why a pitcher’s win/loss record is effectively irrelevant.

Run support is the key element in a pitcher being a “winner” or not. This factor is completely team dependent and fluctuates from pitcher to pitcher and even game to game on the same team. The bullpen is another area that greatly influences whether the starter gets credited with a win or not and poses the same problems that run support does. Team defense is the next dynamic when looking at reasons behind a win versus a loss. This does not solely refer to errors, but range varies greatly from team to team as well.

Looking at a pitcher’s win/loss record is the simplest way to measure a pitcher’s ability, but it’s also the laziest and often clouds one’s true value because these three factors (run support, bullpen, defense) must all work in the pitcher’s favor to get the W. These factors are completely out of the starter’s control. A pitcher’s record is not evidence that he’s good or bad, and there are much better measures of pitcher performance that are not so luck and team dependent than wins. For a great example of this, look no further than last year’s Cy Young race in the AL. Bartolo Colon won because his record was 21-8, while Johan Santana’s was 16-7. Never mind the fact that the Angels were 22-11 when Colon pitched, and the Twins were 24-9 when Santana took the hill.

ERA is a better measure, but surprisingly also has its flaws as well. Many people ignore the win/loss column and look at ERA for a reference of ability. This is fine, but not truly the best way to evaluate how a guy is throwing. Again, other factors directly affect one’s ERA. Luck is something too frequently ignored when it comes to starting pitchers in baseball.

Many studies have been done, and the overwhelming conclusion states that for the most part, balls that are put into play affect every pitcher the same exact way. That’s right, the same exact way. Essentially, there is a 30 percent chance that a ball in play off anyone falls in for a hit. Doesn’t matter if Johan Santana threw the pitch or if Jose Lima did. Well, maybe not Lima, but you get the drift. Therefore, ERA can be misleading due to its reliance on luck; some periods will see a pitcher’s rate of balls in play that fall for hits rise to 40 percent while another’s might drop to 20 percent. Either way, it’s going to eventually regress to the mean of 30 percent.

If you remove balls in play, the only other possibilities any given at-bat presents are a strikeout, a walk and a home run. So it stands to reason that the difference between one pitcher and another pitcher depends entirely on how good they are at preventing home runs and walks and most importantly, striking batters out.

The point to take from all of this is simple. A ball in play is going to fall for a hit 30 percent of the time no matter who is on the mound. The pitchers who allow fewer balls in play (by striking more batters out) and are locating well (K/BB ratio, limiting big flies) are the best pitchers in baseball, regardless of what their record or ERA says.