Through 2 1/2 months of baseball, there are plenty of surprising starts. Some are off to poor starts, while others are off to great ones. It’s time to take a look and see which are for real and which are only a mirage.
Andy Pettitte’s slow start
Pettitte currently sports a 5.46 ERA and a 1.60 WHIP. He has been consistently bad every month so far this year, and it’s uncertain why his ERA is a full three runs higher than last year’s. His 69/33 K/BB ratio is average, but way off last year’s pace. The main culprit, however, appears to be the long ball. 2005 saw Pettitte yield 17 home runs in over 222 innings pitched. In 2006, he has already surrendered 15 big flies in just 90 innings pitched. Pettitte says he feels healthy, so marked improvement should be expected. Don’t forget that last year’s second half saw Pettitte put up a remarkable 1.69 ERA and 0.90 WHIP. His last two starts have seen him give up just three runs over 13 innings, so maybe the turn is already here. With best friend Roger Clemens returning, Pettitte will be even more motivated to return to 2005 form. His .313 BAA is extremely fluky and will drop back to his .269 career line soon enough. This start is a MIRAGE.
Josh Johnson, Marlins Ace
Johnson is off to some start to the season. It figured he needed more seasoning in the minors before joining the Marlins rotation for good, but he has proved that theory wrong. Johnson features a good low-90s sinker and has been unreal since joining the rotation. He has hurled five straight quality starts and hasn’t given up more than three runs in any of his eight starts this year. He has 54 punch outs in 61 1/3 innings and sits with a tidy 2.05 ERA. Obviously, these numbers aren’t going to last, but there’s absolutely nothing not to like about the way the 6-foot-7 right-hander is throwing the ball right now. While wins will remain a problem all season because he wears a Marlins uniform, Johnson should retain value and put up solid numbers across the board. He’s not going to be an ace, and while his start is too good to be true and some decline will inevitably occur; it is, for the most part, FOR REAL.
New York Mets, the class of the NL
If you listen to the media, the Mets winning the National League pennant is a foregone conclusion. The only question is whether they will win the World Series title as well. Listen, the Mets no doubt look unbelievable right now. They certainly look like the best team in the NL. But last I checked, it is June. The Braves have been down big before, but this admittedly doesn’t look good for them. It’s their largest deficit in the division since 1990, and they don’t resemble the team that has won 14 consecutive division titles. Still, there are other teams out there capable of taking the crown. The Cardinals is the obvious choice, especially when Pujols returns. I wouldn’t count out the Dodgers or the Astros either. The Phillies definitely have the firepower to do so as well. The main issue here, however, is that the Mets are flawed. Their offense looks great, and David Wright is one of the best players on the planet. But Reyes, Delgado, Beltran, Floyd are all injury risks, and Lo Duca will no doubt slump post All-Star break. My main problem is their starting pitching; although I must admit, I am a big fan of the El Duque acquisition. I guess come playoff time their lack of depth (Trachsel, Soler, Bannister) won’t matter quite as much, but relying on Glavine to continue looking like an ace is rather risky. The Mets aren’t winning the National League pennant. MIRAGE.
Leave a Reply