Deal or No Deal

Sorry for a somewhat inactive weekend with posts. It was a busy one; highlighted by a Radiohead concert in Berkeley. Great show, and the venue was small, intimate and made it that much better. If you have never done so, you should probably check out the best band in the world for yourself. Anyway, trading is a big part of baseball, whether it’s real or fantasy. Today, I want to go over some of the very worst (or best, depending on the team’s point of view) trades of the past decade – three especially stand out above all the rest. I’m talking real baseball this time. But if you’re in a league who has a frustrated Mark Teixiera owner, he’s one of the best buy low candidates out there. Before Friday, he had gone 22 games without a home run. The guy is hitting .232 at Ameriquest Field, with a 698 OPS. Last year at home, he hit .334 with an 1109 OPS. Hurry up, as he already started hitting this weekend at Coors Field and will only keep getting harder and harder to trade for. And now, the countdown for the three worst trades in recent memory, starting with the third worst.

3. Scott Kazmir for Victor Zambrano

Consummated at the trade deadline in 2004, this trade never had a chance. It was one of those deals that everyone questioned immediately. I thought there must have been a typo, and they printed the wrong first name before Zambrano’s name. Nearly everyone who followed baseball had thoughts of sending in their resumes to the Mets owner, as surely they could do a better job than current GM Jim Duquette. Now, Zambrano did have some semblance of upside, but Kazmir was unquestionably a top pitching prospect. Apparently, the Mets were playing for now and the future was inconsequential. They defended the deal by stating the fact they were only 6 games out of first place, and Zambrano could put them over the top for a playoff run. Pitching coach Rick Peterson said he could “fix Zambrano in 10 minutes and Kazmir was at least 3 years away from being a Major League pitcher.”

Zambrano had led the league in wild pitches, walks and hit batsmen in 2003, and would go on to lead the AL in walks in 2004, even despite being traded out of the league with two months left in the season. The numbers pretty much speak for themselves, but another aspect makes this deal look even worse. Zambrano had a bum elbow. He recently had season-ending surgery for a torn flexor tendon. Problem is, this wasn’t even a new injury. “I’ll be honest with you: I haven’t been pitching a very healthy game from the first time I got traded,” Zambrano said. During Tommy John surgery, he also had bone spurs removed from the elbow and needed his UCL replaced. Now, the Mets will likely non-tender him in December, making him a free agent.

Injuries aside, Zambrano had a 4.43 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in a Mets uniform. Kazmir, on the other hand, is on his way to becoming one of baseball’s best pitchers. His build makes him a candidate to break down, admittedly, but there’s a lot to like with the way the youngster is throwing. He has a 3.80 ERA so far for the D-Rays but is only getting better. The 315 strikeouts in 314 2/3 innings say as much – nothing but upside here. Remember, these numbers come while pitching in the ridiculously tough AL East. If the Mets had held onto him, they would be World Series favorites.

2. Dan Haren, Kiko Calero, and Daric Barton for Mark Mulder

First off, this trade was a disaster for the Cardinals even before the Mulder injury. Mulder, who will be eligible for free agency following this season, has rotator cuff inflammation and irritation in his left shoulder. Something had to be wrong, as his pitching has been horrendous this year. Once he joined the Cardinals, Mulder’s stuff was never the same as it was in 2001-2003. His first year with the Cards was decent enough (3.64 ERA, 1.38 WHIP), but he had one of the easiest schedules in baseball. Just 10 of his 32 starts came against teams that finished with winning records. Pitching in the NL masked the pitcher he had become. This year, the man behind the mask was revealed – 6.08 ERA and 1.55 WHIP. Since May 22, his ERA was 13.65 and batters hit .434 against him in June. Now, he’s hurt and due for a new contract. Billy Beane did it again.

Dan Haren is already a better pitcher. Forget the fact he will cost the A’s $6-$7 million less per season than Mulder. The guy has a 3.56 ERA and 1.14 WHIP for the A’s this year. Again, remember this is in the AL. The 81/22 K/BB ratio means he’s pitching even better than those already impressive numbers indicate. He’s young and not arbitration eligible until 2010. Kiko Calero, meanwhile, has made 13 straight scoreless appearances, spanning 12 2/3 innings. He’s one of the more valuable setup guys in baseball; his slider is basically unhittable for right-handed batters. Daric Barton could prove to be the prize of the deal. Although he is currently out with a fractured elbow, he is a huge part of the team’s future. He isn’t even 21 years old yet. Barton’s long-term home will likely be either first base or DH, and his patient approach at the plate and exceptional pitch recognition skills will lead to .380+ OBPs. The guy is as close to a sure thing to become a quality regular as prospects get. The A’s not only saved money and got younger; they got far more talented as well. Now that’s about as lopsided a trade can get. Well, it could be worse…

1. Joe Nathan, Francisco Liriano, and Boof Bonser for A.J. Pierzynski

Save for maybe Babe Ruth, I refuse to believe there was a worse trade in baseball history. Not that a left-handed hitting catcher with a .290 career average isn’t valuable, but this one was as bad as it gets. Let’s start with Pierzynski. In the one year he played for the Giants, he hit a respectable .272/.319/.410. Problem was it was only for that year. Basically, he made every teammate hate his guts so much there was no way he could be brought back for a second year. At least he set a Giants record in the process – he grounded into the most double plays any Giant ever had.

All Joe Nathan has done for the Twins is compile a 2.12 ERA and 0.94 WHIP. The 99 saves don’t hurt matters either. Nor does the 44/4 K/BB ratio this season. If he’s not the top closer in baseball, he’s awfully close. What makes this trade look even worse is that if the Giants could take a player back, it probably wouldn’t even be Nathan. That would be Francisco Liriano. Liriano is often compared to Johan Santana, only with better stuff. His slight build had the Giants worried about injuries. Now Liriano has major league hitters worried about looking silly. He’s backed up the top pitching prospect chatter with a 2.17 ERA over 66 1/3 innings pitched. The guy has 107 strikeouts in 90 major league innings. At this point, not much more can be said about Liriano, as literally the sky’s the limit. Boof Bonser not only has a great name, but also should eventually settle in as a quality fourth or fifth starter.

This trade set the Giants’ franchise back for years, maybe decades. For instance, if Nathan were closing, there would be no need to give that schmuck Armando Benitez a $21 million deal. A Liriano/Schmidt combo would dominate the NL. But don’t listen to me, take the word of the man in charge. San Francisco general manager Brian Sabean said: “It’s not often you can send a right-handed reliever and two unproven prospects for a front-line, All-Star catcher.” Right you are Sabean, this was definitely a once-in-a-lifetime trade.


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5 responses to “Deal or No Deal”

  1. T. Avatar
    T.

    I agree, that Giants trade was the absolute worst. What a debacle. What, Nathan himself wasn’t enough to get the deal done? Terrible.

  2. Rick Avatar
    Rick

    What has happened to Mulder’s career? It looks like he’ll never regain that ace form he had in Oakland. Billy Beane doesn’t always trade b.c he has to. Other GMs should realize that before being taken for.

  3. Tom Avatar
    Tom

    Good call w/ Kazmir. Can you imagine how good the Mets would be w/ him?! They would run away with the NL…well, even more so! Great site, keep up the good work.

  4. Eddie Avatar
    Eddie

    Walt Jocketty has done many great things for the Cardinals, but I’m convinced that trade will haunt us for the next decade (if it isn’t already, which it probably is). Now, Walt and Tony’s affection for veterans has spelled a problem similar to the Yankees–overpaid vets and a sapped farm system.

    Granted, the Cards might be a little better off than the Yanks in the farm system (MIGHT be, maybe not), and they’re playing in the punchless NL, but our time as a dominant team is probably over, and it kills that we didn’t make the deals that we should have.

  5. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    Jocketty may like his veterans, but Brian Sabean takes the cake in that department. Can you imagine how bad the Giants will be in 1-2 years? I wouldn’t be too down on the Cards, Reyes’ future certainly looks bright.

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