RotoScoop.com

1. Albert Pujols (1) – Wow. Not much to say at this point.
2. Mark Teixeira (2) – Off to a slow start but he’ll get it going.
3. Lance Berkman (5) – Plays the outfield, but many fantasy owners use his first base eligibility. He’s off to a MVP caliber season.
4. Jim Thome (12) – Well, this trade sure worked out nicely. Thome currently leads the AL with 14 bombs, is second in runs scored with 33 and is tied for second in walks with 28.
5. Todd Helton (4) – He’s back and ready to help his fantasy owners. His power, however, may never fully return.
6. Adam Dunn (6) – Like Berkman, Dunn is available at 1B in most formats. His average will remain low and the strikeouts will continue coming in bunches, but he is the favorite to lead the NL in homeruns.
7. Paul Konerko (7) – With Thome in front of him, Konerko has a great shot at a career high in RBI.
8. Jason Giambi (16) – I had him way too low. Giambi goes from not homering once in spring training to showing great pop through the first six weeks of the season.
9. Ryan Howard (8) – Don’t count on his .304 average to last, but the power most definitely will.
10. Carlos Delgado (10) – With the surrounding talent, Delgado has the potential to finish with real solid numbers.
11. Richie Sexson (9) – He’s off to a horrendous start, but will eventually get it turned around.
12. Nick Johnson (18) – I’ve always been high on Nick the Stick, and he’s finally living up to his potential. He’ll probably get hurt but will continue raking while in the lineup. His .320/.430/.600 line is downright impressive considering he calls RFK home. He’s even chipped in with 4 steals.
13. Chris Shelton (21) – He’s followed up his ridiculous start with a .208/.231/.208 May.
14. Justin Morneau (13) – Still struggling batting for average, Morneau has recently shown signs of breaking out. There is still quite a bit of power upside here.
15. Derrek Lee (3) – He was on my “avoid” list, but no one could’ve seen this coming. Tough break for owners who no doubt spent a top-8 pick on him.
16. Brad Whifferson (14)
17. Prince Fielder (23)
18. Lyle Overbay (19)
19. Phil Nevin (26)
20. Dan Johnson (20)
21. Dmitri Young (28)
22. Craig Wilson (n/a)
23. Conor Jackson (n/a)
24. Ben Broussard (n/a)
25. Mike Jacobs (29)
Designated Hitters
1. David Ortiz (1)
2. Travis Hafner (2)
3. Frank Thomas (3)

By: Robby Wellington – Staff Writer
Stolen bases are the rarest of commodities in the fantasy world. Home runs are hit more than twice as much as bases are stolen and, accordingly, stolen bases are more than twice as valuable (discounting a home run’s collateral categorical benefit). However, stolen bases are also one of the most difficult categories to prognosticate when drafting your team. When you think about it, it is the only category based primarily on effort. Even the most lumbering of beefy sluggers can probably swipe 15-20 bases in a season if he’s so inclined, but Juan Pierre could swing for the fences every at-bat and not crack double digits in home runs. The fact of the matter is, a wide range of factors contribute to whether a player runs or not: Is his manager giving him the green light? Are the guys behind him hitting well? Are his legs fresh and healthy? Does he have some sort of personal stolen base goal that we’re unaware of? Does his son have him on his fantasy baseball team? The stolen base shortage is further exacerbated by the playing time uncertainty of some of the game’s top basestealers (Ryan Freel, Dave Roberts, Joey Gathright, Corey Patterson, Kenny Lofton, Jason Repko). There is nothing worse than a DNP in your starting lineup. Anyhow, now that the season is nearly a fifth of the way through, let’s reexamine the top basestealers, guys who appear undervalued in terms of steals, guys who are overvalued and a few big question marks. Without further adieu:

(The following five players should battle all year for the stolen base crown. Podsednik, Pierre and Crawford probably will return the most value in a trade).

1. Jose Reyes (60) – Reyes continues his second half SB barrage from last year and is on pace to draw more than twice as many walks as last year.
2. Scott Podsednik (58) – Probably the most likely in this group to reach 80 steals. His four steal game last week and Ozzie Guillen’s recent announcement that the White Sox need to run more should bode well.
3. Juan Pierre (57) – Pierre has only been caught once and with Lee out for a while, expect Pierre to run often, especially when he raises his horrible .275 OBP.
4. Carl Crawford (54) – The current MLB leader in swipes has seen decreased production across the board in all other categories due, in part, to a lingering shoulder injury. Don’t worry though, Crawford is ever-cognizant of his stats (stating in the preseason that he wanted to be the top fantasy player) and could approach 60 steals in an effort to compensate.
5. Chone Figgins (51) – Expect something in between his ’04 and ’05 numbers.

Ichiro (38) – While Ichiro won’t keep up his current rate, he should be a good bet to steal the most bases since his eye-popping rookie campaign, especially with the Seattle offense floundering.
Dave Roberts (37) – The brittle Roberts is worth playing as long as he is healthy and running. Feel free to bench him, however, when he is slumping or facing a lefty, and keep that DL spot warm.
Johnny Damon (33) – Damon’s move from the sedentary Sox to the more freewheeling Yankees has, and should continue to, resulted in a visible spike in his steal totals.
Kenny Lofton (32) – Lofton has run well since his return from the DL and should be able to swipe at least 30 bags, even while platooning with Jason Repko. If you have the space, you can probably garner an additional 10 steals by platooning these two yourself.
Julio Lugo (31) – Lugo’s 39 steals apparently came out of nowhere last year, and after missing over a month this year with a strained back, he has come back with a vengeance, swiping three bags in the last three games, and looks like he will provide some good stolen base value over the rest of the season.
Josh Barfield/Hanley Ramirez (31) – These two rookies should have reasonably good stolen base totals to go with serviceable peripherals all year long. The low-profile teams they play for should make them affordable or available in many leagues.
Wily Taveras (29) – Taveras is off to a slow start in steals but should pick it up from here on out and approach his ’05 numbers.

Jimmy Rollins (32) – Rollins has gotten off to a slow start in the steal department, and I have a hard time picturing him approaching his 41 from last year.
Felipe Lopez (28) – Lopez has surprised so far with 11 steals, a pace which should slow down. Nevertheless, his owners have to be happy with his overall production so far.
Adrian Beltre (27) – Despite his horrific start, Beltre has nearly made up for it with nine steals so far. While that pace should drop, it should remain adequate, and he has to start hitting better. I’m going to toe the RotoScoop party lines here and say that he is still a “buy low” candidate.
Bobby Abreu (23) – Abreu is getting older, and it’s hard to advocate him running as much as he used to in the Phillies powerful lineup.
Joey Gathright (21) – Gathright has gotten his looks, thanks to Cantu and Baldelli getting hurt. However, he has been downright atrocious and will be lucky to get another 200 at-bats this year.
Jason Bay (19) – Many people, including me, had Bay pegged for 30 or so steals this year after his torrid second half in ’05. It’s now looking like he may be hard-pressed to match his total from last year.

Ryan Freel (30-40) – Assuming he can continue to get somewhat regular at-bats (and Griffey Jr. isn’t looking like he is going to be around a ton this year), Freel should run quite a bit. It’s just hard to consistently start a guy who might be benched every few games, especially since his other numbers are so unimpressive.
Corey Patterson (20-45) – Patterson went on a recent tear and, given the playing time, could have a big fantasy season. If you can afford it, roll the dice on him.
Brian Roberts (25-35) – Roberts was on a tear, stealing nine bases in ten games, before landing on the DL with a strained groin. Clearly, this is a situation to monitor closely when he returns.

The importance of steals in fantasy baseball cannot be overstated enough (at least in rotisserie leagues, frankly, I’m a proponent of punting steals in head-to-head leagues). Adam Dunn going 1-4 with a run, RBI and homerun is actually less valuable than Ryan Freel going 0-0 with a pinch run stolen base and no runs. It only takes a couple of speedsters to finish near the top of your league in stolen bases, and usually, they can be had for very little. Monitoring the ebb and flow of stolen bases in real baseball should allow you to remain close to the top of your fantasy league while sacrificing very little in other categories.

Next up is catcher for the updated rankings. This time I added my original preseason rankings in italics.

1. Victor Martinez (1) – Simply the best catcher in the game. V-Mart has followed up his impressive second half last year with a great start this year.

2. Josh Willingham (10) – Playing left field means he’s in the lineup nearly every night. Batting cleanup behind Cabrera, Willingham is now the No. 2 fantasy catcher.

3. Joe Mauer (2) – The power he flashed in 2004 still has yet to return. He will hit, however.

4. Pudge Rodriguez (4) – He’s back being slightly more patient at the plate this year; the Tigers’ lineup is much improved.

5. Ramon Hernandez (7) – He’s hit so well that a move up in the lineup followed.

6. Michael Barrett (8) – Dusty Baker is limiting his value by batting him low in the lineup where it will be tough to score runs.

7. Jason Varitek (6) – The fact he has been terrible at Fenway so far is an aberration and will change soon enough.

8. Jorge Posada (5) – The loaded lineup means Posada can’t avoid solid numbers.

9. Javy Lopez (3) – A DL trip prevents him from being ranked any higher.

10. Kenji Johjima (11) – Although there is talk some Mariners pitchers don’t love throwing to him, Johjima has been more than adequate with the bat.

11. A.J. Pierzynski (9) – He’s traded last year’s power surge for a higher batting average. Sitting against lefties should allow for it to remain solid.

12. Paul Lo Duca (13) – Batting second in the Mets lineup is a good situation for him. Remember that he always fades in the second half, however.

13. Brian McCann (17)

14. Johnny Estrada (16)

15. Benjie Molina (18)

16. Jason Kendall (12)

17. Mike Piazza (15)

18. Rod Barajas (19)

19. Toby Hall (n/a)

20. Mike Lieberthal (20)

Buying low and selling high is all well and good, but trading comes down to someone valuing one guy more than the next. The following is an updated version of my rankings. Up first is third base.

1. Alex Rodriguez – How many people are kicking themselves for taking him over Pujols?

2. David Wright – The sky’s the limit. Can he get to 30 SBs?

3. Miguel Cabrera – As expected, on pace to shatter his career high in walks. Unexpectedly, Willingham is providing sufficient lineup protection.

4. Eric Chavez – Could this finally be the year he truly takes the big step forward? It looks that way, as he’s usually a slow starter. He is even hitting southpaws well. An MVP-type season is not out of the question.

5. Aramis Ramirez – Losing D. Lee is a killer.

6. Troy Glaus – Remember the injury concern here. Still, although not a big batting average contributor, 45 bombs are well within reach.

7. Hank Blalock – He’s backed up my faith in him with a solid start to the year. The home/road split trend continues at a profound rate.

8. Morgan Ensberg – His power surge from last year looks to be here for good. I figured he’d take a step backward, but with Berkman playing like a MVP, Ensberg will be in line to eclipse 100 RBI.

9. Chipper Jones – Maybe his yearly injury is now behind him. His swing is still there.

10. Scott Rolen – Pujols is bound to start getting the Bonds treatment. A bout with bronchitis brings his numbers down, but he’s in a terrific situation.

11. Chad Tracy – He’s firmly established himself in the middle of the order. Chase Field certainly doesn’t hurt matters.

12. Melvin Mora – A move to the 2-hole sees his value increase.

13. Aubrey Huff – Back from injury and now third base eligible, Huff will be hitting with his contract year in mind.

14. Edwin Encarnacion – His hot spring has carried over into the season. He is even capable of contributing on the base paths.

15. Adrian Beltre – He looks like my worst original ranking so far to date. The nine stolen bases at least somewhat counters the terrible hitting. While playing in the WBC, Beltre looked like he did in 2004. Now, he just looks lost. I still believe he will provide value before it’s all said and done.

16. Garrett Atkins

17. Joe Crede

18. Casey Blake

19. Shea Hillenbrand

20. Kevin Youkilis

21. Mike Lowell

22. Pedro Feliz

23. Ryan Zimmerman

24. Aaron Boone

25. Tony Batista

By: Robby Wellington – Staff Writer  

A few days back I discussed strategies to getting the most out of your pitching staff and noted certain factors to consider when making your decisions (opponent, opposing pitcher, home/road, hitters/pitchers park, hot/cold streak, etc.). However, there are many more nuanced issues that affect a pitcher’s projected performance, far too many to process really. So who has the best idea of how a pitcher and their team will perform? How about Las Vegas oddsmakers? They provide you with an accurate tool for handicapping who will win the game (the moneyline) as well as for how many runs should be scored (the over/under). While they also factor in the strength of each team’s bullpen in setting these odds and don’t take into account certain pitching stats which don’t affect real baseball but do fantasy (WHIP and Ks), it seems as if you can use these two numbers in helping you make your starting pitching decisions. I spent a little while tinkering with these numbers, trying to come up with a formula that essentially ranks a pitcher’s value for a certain start based on the moneyline and over/under. The best I’ve come up with is this: 

Moneyline Value – 20 * Over/Under = SPs Vegas Value 

The moneyline value is equal to the absolute value of the favored team’s moneyline (e.g. the Tigers today are -124 so Bonderman’s MV is 124) and 200 – the underdog’s moneyline (the Twin’s are +114 today, making Scott Baker’s MV 86). Also the over/under has to be adjusted .5 runs for every 10% of juice added to a side (for example the o/u in the A’s vs. Devil Rays game today is 9, but the over is even and the under is -120, making the adjusted over/under 8.5). Now this equation is far from perfect, as any pitcher whose team is an underdog is going to have a pretty low final number, even if they’re a great pitcher. And the equation may lean a little too heavily on the moneyline and a pitcher getting a W (to wit, anyone throwing against the Royals right now is a good bet to top the day’s rankings. Javier Vazquez’s White Sox are a whopping -275 against them today, putting his Vegas Value at +115. Barry Zito is a distant second vs. the D Rays at +50 followed closely by Peavy vs. the Cubs at +38). 

Now I’m not necessarily advocating using that equation to determine your questionable starters.  The fact is, I just made it up and it’s definitely a bit flawed, hopefully I can tinker with it some more and come up with something a little more accurate; until then, I won’t be using it. However, I will be checking the odds on borderline starts and selecting spot starters, and if my guy is favored, or a slight underdog with a low o/u (8.5 or less), I’ll probably give him the nod. I recommend that you do the same.   

By: Robby Wellington – Staff Writer

Author’s disclaimer: The following article applies specifically to daily transaction leagues, particularly the last paragraph. The unique one-start, two-start importance of weekly transaction leagues merits its own article.

One important goal of any fantasy baseball manager is to isolate their players’ good performances from their bad ones and to make sure that most of the bad stat lines occur on the bench. While there are a number of ways you can do this with your hitters (sitting them against a stud SP, a lefty against a lefty, a slumping bat or a marginal Rockie or Ranger on the road), the easiest and most profound way to exploit matchups is with your starting pitching staff.

Let’s consider baseball’s starting pitchers as four tiers. First tier are your studs, guys who you start every game, regardless of their opponent. There are maybe 20 hurlers in this group, give or take five throughout the season. They’re your horses, and their final season stat line is going to be identical or nearly identical to the stats that they provide your fantasy team, just plug ‘em and play ‘em.

Next come the solid starters that fill up the next couple of slots in fantasy rotations. You’re going to be hard-pressed to sit these guys with the exception of the most difficult matchups (i.e. @ Colorado, @ Texas, vs. Boston or vs. the Yankees), when they are hurt and/or slumping or occasionally when they are matched up against an ace with a tough lineup. Suffice it to say, by the end of the year you’ll probably get 75 percent to 90 percent of their innings pitched counting toward your own stats, with hopefully a favorable record and lowered ratios.

Third are the fringe/situational starters, which is, believe it or not, the group that can make or break your rotation and certainly requires the most attention. Based on a variety of factors (opponent, opposing pitcher, home/road splits, recent performances, health) you’ll probably end up starting these guys anywhere from 50 percent to 70 percent of the time, and by the end of the year, their stats in your starting lineup should be noticeably better than their numbers on your bench. This is also the region where you want to target guys with significant splits (usually ones who throw in “pitchers parks” or in weak divisions) because it is easier to mine good stats and productivity out of the guys with mediocre overall numbers if you have a better idea of how to isolate his good starts. It is also for this same reason why young, erratic pitchers are not good fits for this spot; someone like Scott Kazmir can go out and shut down the Yankees, then get lit by the Tigers when you plug him in the following turn (Kazmir’s ERA is in fact twice as high vs. Detroit at 3.43 to 6.86. The sample size is small of course).

Now picking and choosing your pitchers’ starts obviously isn’t going to work all the time, in fact, it often seems like the moment I sit someone they go 4 for 4 or throw a 10K gem. More often than not, however, by paying close attention to your staff, especially the fringe guys, you should be able to maximize your wins while keeping your ERA and WHIP lower than the pitchers’ overall numbers would indicate.

Now, while this “selective starting” should give you a competitive edge over your opponents in the pitching categories, you’ll presumably be behind in IP and need to make up for this somehow. The last thing you want to do is drop a bat or good reliever to add these innings. Instead, you can use a new feature this year on Yahoo! Baseball that tells you exactly which free agents have a start the next day. Which brings us to our fourth and final level of fantasy starting pitchers: the waiver wire rabble. The guys who aren’t good enough to be on anyone’s team – at least not permanently. Assuming your league doesn’t severely limit transactions, you should reserve one spot on your team for a rotating player. At least a few times a week you should be able to find a pitcher on waivers primed for a solid outing. It’s not terribly difficult to “spot start” and exploit solid waiver matchups, ending the year with 300-400 IP, 20-30 wins and ratios around 4.00 and 1.30 for that one roster slot. On days when you can’t find a useable matchup, you can add a good middle reliever (or one in line to get a save for the night if you are extremely vigilant) or a bat, if needed. To make a long story short, there is a lot more to managing a fantasy rotation than just plugging each guy in 30 times a year.