Market Watch

SELL HIGH

Brett Tomko
– Tomko has shown flashes of brilliance before in his career, but don’t fall for it. He’s as inconsistent as they come. With two consecutive poor starts, this recommendation may be too late. If you can’t deal him, look into starting him exclusively at Dodger Stadium, as his home/road splits are drastic thus far.

Tyler Walker – Since joining the D-Rays, Walker has been very good. Limiting opponents to just a .212 batting average, Walker has also been successful in all nine of his save opportunities. Don’t underestimate how much fantasy owners value the almighty save. With Walker’s value seemingly at an apex, deal him now before it’s too late and the Walker who was terrible for the Giants earlier this year returns.

Ramon Hernandez – He’s been baseball’s best catcher so far. While this should not come as a huge surprise, and I was recommending him going into the year, Hernandez could probably bring in quite a return at this point. A shrewd owner would realize Hernandez hasn’t even reached 400 at-bats since 2003; Hernandez is getting worked awfully hard so far this year as well.

Jermaine Dye – Speaking of ditching someone before their yearly DL-trip strikes, there may not be a better example than Dye. He is off to a great start with a 1056 OPS and 14 bombs. Still, he’s injury-prone, his average figures to drop .25 points back to his career line, and there is no way he keeps hitting .429 with RISP.

Casey Blake
– Blake is playing out of his mind. The decline has already started, so shop him fast. He’s hitting nearly .70 points over his career average, but with no discernible difference in his strikeout or walk rates, there are no signs of true development.

Chris Capuano – Capuano has been one of the best pitcher’s in baseball this year. His K/BB ratio has dramatically improved from last year, and it looks like a true breakout season for him. The improvement from last year, however, is so dramatic it’s unclear if it’s real. See if you can get a top player in return, as there’s nowhere to go but down for Capuano.

Scott Kazmir – Kazmir is living up to the hype and has the name recognition that could net you a good enough player in return to deal him now, while his stats look incredible. A 2.86 ERA and 73 strikeouts in just over 69 innings is downright impressive. Still, he won’t be a big contributor in WHIP, and pitching in the AL East puts him at a huge disadvantage. Now, if he were still on the Mets it would be a different matter…

Nate Robertson – Robertson somehow has a 3.02 ERA with a sub-par 38/23 K/BB ratio in nearly 60 innings. There’s no way he keeps up that pace while not striking anyone out. Talk up the fact he plays for the team with the best record in baseball and deal him as soon as possible.

BUY LOW

Richie Sexson – Sure, this one is fairly obvious, but we are eight weeks into the season now, so a Sexson owner might be frustrated enough to get rid of him. He certainly wasn’t drafted high to hit .205 with only six long balls. Supposedly a heel injury has been holding him back some, but that figures to improve. So will his numbers.

Jhonny Peralta – Manager Eric Wedge refuses to remove Peralta from the three-hole. While this might not be the smartest baseball move, it’s good for Peralta’s value. Sandwiched between Sizemore and Hafner, Peralta won’t be able to avoid solid RBI and runs scored production. He’ll start hitting as well.

Aubrey Huff – Huff has been nothing short of awful so far. Maybe a trade, which is likely, will give him a fresh start and rejuvenate him. And if not, remember, Huff’s OPS rises over 100 points after the All-Star break throughout his career.

Kevin Millwood – Millwood can be maddeningly inconsistent. Two terrible starts have ruined his ERA, and pitching in Ameriquest Field has not been easy on him. Still, the AL West is a good division to pitch in, his 52/12 K/BB ratio is fantastic, and with the Rangers powerful offense, 20 wins remains a strong possibility.

Willy Taveras – Taveras started the year by inexplicably not running, amassing just one steal in April. In May, however, he’s picked it back up with seven SBs. Even better news is his recent move to the leadoff spot, as he’s much more likely to run in front of Biggio than Berkman.

Andy Pettitte – By all accounts, when you look at balls in play that turn into hits or outs, Pettitte was remarkably lucky last year. This year, he’s been remarkably unlucky. He is seemingly healthy and will only get better. Go make an offer; remember, last year his ERA was a microscopic 1.69 after the All-Star break.

David Bush – With a 5.19 ERA, Bush is likely available on waiver wires in some leagues. Looking deeper at his numbers, however, reveals a pitcher who is not throwing the ball all that poorly. A 1.27 WHIP combined with a 59/17 K/BB ratio in 69 1/3 innings says a much brighter future lies ahead.

Felix Hernandez – It’s only a matter of time before King Felix turns it around. Whether it’s a flaw in his delivery or Johjima calling a poor game, it will get fixed. Make an offer before his ERA starts crashing down.

Todd Helton – First he was hurt; then he turned in a .230/.309/.356 May. With the rest of the Rockies lineup hitting better than last year (Barmes excluded), Helton is in position to put up nice numbers. While his power may never truly return because of his back, Helton will start hitting sooner rather than later.

Jeremy Bonderman – A staple on my buy low list, Bonderman is once again a recommended addition. The 4.61 ERA doesn’t match the 1.21 WHIP or 58/19 K/BB ratio. It’s only a matter of time before Bonderman takes it to the next level, and you’ll want him on your team when he does.

Huston Street – The man who sticks his tongue out before every pitch has been quite the disappointment so far, typified by a recently blown save against the Royals. While his ERA still sits at 5.00, he’s turned in a solid May (3.65 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 10 Ks and no walks). Street is at worst a top-10 closer from here on out.

6 Responses to “Market Watch”

  1. Dan says:

    Hey RotoScoop. Love the blog. I especially agree with your advice to buy low on Willy Taveras. I’m tied for first in my yahoo winners league but I’m almost dead last in SB.

    Anyway, I’ve been checking in from time to time since I saw your link over at Roto Authority. I’ve just started my own blog and was wondering if we could link to each other. Do you have an email addy where I can contact you?

    - Dan
    bookwormbaseball.blogspot.com

  2. RotoScoop says:

    Good to hear Dan. You can contact us at RotoScoop@gmail.com or also ddeldon@rotoscoop.com

  3. CP says:

    Ya I agree, I love your blog too. One of my favorites. Boy hopefully people ditched Tomko before his start today!!!

  4. tv says:

    What do you think about Dunn as a buy low? He seems to be just off a bit when you watch him. I think he is going to put it together…do you?

  5. RotoScoop says:

    Yes I definitely advocate acquiring Dunn. Average will always be a problem with him, but he’s still a favorite to finish top-3 in homers.

  6. Scott says:

    Good call w/ Capuano also, he was pounded by the Pirates. But Felix was off again, something’s wrong with him. Good advice all around though.

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