AL MVP: Vladimir Guerrero
The contenders: Hafner could make a strong push, but DH may ultimately hold back enough votes. Same goes for Big Papi, whose team will be edged out by the Angels anyway. Konerko could easily lead the league in RBI with Thome now in front of him, and it would surprise no one if Rodriguez repeated. But unlike A-Rod, Vladdy isn’t surrounded by an All-Star lineup; if the Angels do indeed make the postseason, it will be because of Guerrero carrying them on his back. Health is all that can stop this scenario from happening.
NL MVP: Albert Pujols
The contenders: It’s Pujols’ award to lose. The guy started what could turn out to be a ridiculous streak of consecutive MVP awards last year. Bonds will rake like always but will not get enough at-bats to challenge Pujols’ counting stats. If the Mets really do make the postseason, Wright could easily finish second. Carlos Lee could factor in if the Brewers contend. Utley could be another surprise entry into the race. One real big dark horse is J.D. Drew; if he can miraculously stay healthy, watch out.
AL Cy Young: Rich Harden
The contenders: Look for Santana’s fate to be similar to last year, when he was baseball’s best pitcher, but run support and team record robbed him of the award. Last year was a great example of how much of a joke the voters too commonly are; if the overrated win statistic is such a big deal to voters, it makes it even more absurd to pick Colon (the Angels were 22-11 when he pitched) over Santana (the Twins were 24-9 when he pitched). It’s almost as if they don’t pay any attention. Anyway, Randy Johnson might have a hard time avoiding 20 wins this year, throwing his name into the race. In the end, Harden will walk away this year’s winner because he has the stuff and the team to do it.
NL Cy Young: Jake Peavy
The contenders: There’s got to be one award winner on a non-playoff team, right? Look for Peavy to be the one. He plays in the best pitchers park, the right division and has a filthy arsenal. Peavy is the favorite. Pedro can still be more than effective working in the low 90s, and if the Mets advance, should be a big contender. Carpenter could easily repeat and is in a great situation to do so. Sheets would be right in the thick of it if healthy. Zambrano worked extra hard this off-season and has stated a Cy Young goal, but too often his head leads to terrible outings. Maybe Smoltz has one more Cy Young caliber year left in him, but he’ll probably fall short.
AL ROY: Francisco Liriano
The contenders: Papelbon may be a late entry for ROY favorite, as it appears he is the Red Sox closer. Although not quite as talented a prospect as teammate Hansen, Papelbon has the ability to take the job and run with it. He currently looks better than Foulke and might end up running away with this award. Johjima is another nominee, but voters often don’t count Japan players as true rookies and catching will hurt his counting stats. Kinsler might not be quite ready yet, but his numbers could look good hitting in that park with that lineup. Liriano will eventually force his way into the rotation and win a narrow vote for ROY honors.
NL ROY: Josh Willingham
The contenders: Teammate Hermida might be the best bet to upset this pick, as both rookies will see substantial playing time for the 100-loss bound Marlins. Hermida should put up pretty big numbers hitting directly in front of Cabrera. Fielder is another candidate, but he’ll be sitting versus southpaws and batting average might be a problem. Cain has as much upside as any NL rookie, but lack of control figures to ultimately make this 21-year-old fall short. Willingham, on the other hand, is 27 years old and ready to contribute immediately while switching between left field and catcher. He’s had an OPS over 1000 throughout the minors and is primed for big numbers batting behind Cabrera.
ALDS: Athletics over Indians
Angels over Yankees
NLDS: Cardinals over Phillies
Braves over Dodgers
ALCS: Athletics over Angels
NLCS: Braves over Cardinals
World Series: Athletics over Braves
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