Cuba’s Finest

Jose Contreras followed up a 5.50 ERA in 2004 with a 7.04 spring training in 2005. He was then rather unimpressive through July; since then, he’s been baseball’s best pitcher.

In his last 15 games started in the regular season, Contreras is 12-1 and winner of 11 straight. His ERA stands at a minuscule 1.92 and WHIP a microscopic 1.05. It doesn’t end there. Last year in the postseason, he went 3-1 with a 3.09 ERA while sporting a 14/2 K/BB ratio and holding opponents to a .222 batting average. Although his strikeout rate could be better, it’s safe to say Contreras has finally figured out American hitters.

After defecting from Cuba in 2002, Contreras was bound to go down as a monumental bust before the miraculous turnaround. The Fat Toad part 2; it was only going to be a matter of time before he showed up drunk to a minor league game like Irabu. Who knows what made the light turn on, but no longer is Contreras the same pitcher who was once afraid to attack hitters with his stuff.

I’m guessing there were typically 20-30 starting pitchers taken before him in most drafts this year. Pitching for the World Series champs, who are seemingly even better on the offensive end this year, Contreras looks like he will provide great value for his owners. If not all of them realize just how dominant he has been over the last 20 starts, be sure to take Contreras off their hands.


Posted

in

by

Tags:

Comments

One response to “Cuba’s Finest”

  1. Lenir Avatar

    , I think it’s fair to question how Steamer hanelds knuckleballers at this point. Definitely something we want to work on more. We don’t use fastball velocity for knuckleballs and instead just regress them to the mean of other knuckleballers. Still, we basically assume that they are like other pitchers in terms of how their ERA depends on K’s, BB’s, GB% etc. and I know that’s not quite right. Steamer definitely doesn’t know whether knuckleballers are more effective in domes or anything like that.Steamer had high expectations for Morrow last year and he had a career year in terms of ERA but it wasn’t a career year in terms of peripherals his strikeout rate was way down and he’s unlikely to repeat his .252 BABIP. Josh Johnson also fell off in K% and his fastball velocity is down from his best days. The Blue Jays, as a team, are projected to improve from a 4.64 ERA last year to a 4.12 ERA in 2013 so that’s not too shabby. We’ve made a couple of tweaks to the formulas (as we do every year) but, by and large, I don’t think anything has changed.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *