1. New York Yankees 96-66
Overview: The Yankees have won at least 95 games in each of the last five seasons but haven’t won the World Series since 2000. Their lineup seriously reads like an All-Star roster. They will outscore opponents by enough to win their 9th consecutive division championship.
Hitting: An already lethal lineup now adds Damon to the mix. This offense is ridiculously loaded. If they don’t lead the majors in runs scored, it would be an upset. Last year, the Yankees made the mistake of thinking Giambi was done and tried to send him to the minors. After he refused, Giambi hit .288/.453/.582 with 29 homers in 340 at-bats. He’s still got it. A-Rod could easily repeat as MVP winner.
Pitching: Not nearly as strong as their hitting, pitching has been the Yankees postseason downfall in recent years. The Big Unit is the key here. Johnson had a 3.31 ERA and 0.99 WHIP after the All-Star break last year, so he’s still more than capable of dominance. How much Mussina has left is more questionable, however. Wright and Pavano look like quintessential free-agent busts. Their ultimate success may rest in the hands of Chien-Ming Wang and Shawn Chacon.
2. Boston Red Sox 94-68
Overview: The Blue Jays are the trendy pick to make the playoffs this year, but it will be the Red Sox fighting for the wild card till the very end. Similar to the Yankees, offense will be carrying the Sox; they have led the majors in runs for three straight years. A healthy Schilling and Foulke would make them a huge threat, but the Angels will ultimately get the last playoff spot.
Hitting: Although he probably wasn’t worth giving up Andy Marte for, Coco Crisp will be a fine replacement for Damon. Loretta’s strong OBP is a great fit in front of Ortiz and Manny. Alex Gonzalez and Lowell better play terrific defense because they figure to be liabilities with the bat. The only thing standing in the way of Wily Mo Pena clubbing 40 bombs is lack of at-bats. Man-Ram is unhappy in Boston and also has a case of the crazies, but should stay around for at least one more year.
Pitching: Schilling will put last year in the past and bounce back in a big way. And no, he shouldn’t be shifted back to the pen. Josh Beckett was a great addition. He’s fiery, possess nasty stuff and clutch in the postseason. The fact remains, however, that he has yet to throw even 180 innings in a season. Maybe this will be the year he changes that. Wells, Clement and Wakefield form a solid bottom of the rotation. Foulke is a huge question mark. The Red Sox better hope Papelbon and Hansen develop sooner rather than later.
3. Toronto Blue Jays 82-80
Overview: The Blue Jays spent a ton of money in the off-season and will no doubt improve, just not as much as some hope. Burnett and Halladay could form the best one-two punch in baseball. The off-season movements did make their defense significantly worse, however.
Hitting: Vernon Wells is going to bust out one of these years, and Glaus will be a 40-homer threat as long as he can stay in the lineup. The better play would be to DH Glaus and put Hillenbrand at third, but Glaus disagrees. Overbay and Molina are solid additions. Rios and Hinske’s divided playing time remains to be seen.
Pitching: The Blue Jays brass breathed a huge sigh of relief when it turned out Burnett’s latest injury concern was only the breaking up of scar tissue – a best-case scenario. Before Halladay went down with a broken leg last year, the Jays were tied with the Yankees with 44 wins. Halladay and Burnett’s health are paramount to their success. The league seems to have figured out Chacin, but maybe Lilly can come through with a better effort. B.J. Ryan was given the largest ever contract sum for a reliever, and for the next few years at least, he’ll be worth it.
4. Baltimore Orioles 78-84
Overview: How great of an effect will Leo Mazzone have? Bedard and Cabrera may turn into front-line starters as soon as this year. The Orioles didn’t shed too many tears when they said goodbye to Sosa and Palmeiro.
Hitting: Even though catching wasn’t a position in need, Ramon Hernandez was a nice signing. Nick Markakis is one of the game’s best outfield prospects, but he shouldn’t be opening the season on the active roster unless he’s playing full time. The people running this club can often come off as clueless. It appears the Tejada trade rumors are over, and he’ll stay with the team for now. A big misconception is that Camden Yards is a hitter’s park; in fact, it is one of the best pitching parks in all of baseball. In 2005, it was the No. 3 rated pitcher’s park based on runs suppressed.
Pitching: Bruce Chen didn’t get along great with Mazzone with the Braves, and the relationship will be key the second time around. Bedard is one of the most underrated pitchers in baseball; look for him to be well above average starting this year. Daniel Cabrera is filthy; he might have the best stuff of anyone in baseball, with King Felix the main competition. Whether or not he truly breaks out this year depends on his control; he may still be a year away. Chris Ray will immediately become one of the better closers in the league.
5. Tampa Bay Devil Rays 68-94
Overview: New manager Joe Maddon is a stark contrast to Piniella, something that may benefit a team full of young players. The potential is there for this team to surprise; too bad they are in one of the toughest divisions in all of baseball.
Hitting: Crawford, Cantu and Baldelli are the current rosters young stars, with Delmon Young and B.J. Upton looking ready to contribute by mid-season. The future may not be so bad. Huff is likely to be traded before he hits free agency.
Pitching: The Rays absolutely ripped off the Mets when they stole Kazmir for Victor Zambrano. Kazmir may still be prone to wildness, but he’s a future star. The Mets shortsightedness might be the difference in them falling short of expectations this year. Edwin Jackson was another savvy pickup; the stuff is there for him to succeed. Casey Fossum hit a batter in ten straight starts last year! Orvella will eventually become a solid closer.
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