1. Cleveland Indians 93-69
Overview: The White Sox will be tough to beat, and the Twins will field a much-improved club, but it will be the Indians who will ultimately wind up on top of the Central. A loaded lineup, a solid starting staff and a dominant bullpen, the Indians have it all. Even though they had the majors best bullpen (2.80 ERA) last year, the Tribe were only 22-36 in one-run games. Meanwhile, the White Sox were 35-19; look for that to even out this time around.
Hitting: Sizemore, Hafner and Martinez form a tremendous big three. Their upside is sky-high; after all, V-Mart hit .380 with a 1026 OPS after the break last year. Losing Crisp will hurt short-term, but Marte will eventually be huge for them. It was a deal that was too good to refuse. In the meantime, look for a bounce back from Boone, as he will try to hold off Marte as long as possible.
Pitching: Maybe this will be the year when Sabathia finally puts it all together; the fact he had his best strikeout rate since his rookie season last year suggests it’s possible. Consistency has been a problem, but the potential is there for him to anchor this staff. Lee, Westbrook and Byrd are solid enough to get the job done. Mota, Betancourt and Fernando Cabrera, one of the game’s best relief prospects, all might be better than closer Bob Wickman; it is a dominant group.
2. Chicago White Sox 92-70
Overview: History shows it is very difficult to repeat, but GM Kenny Williams did everything in his power this off-season to attempt it. He was not complacent, taking chances and changing key aspects of his championship squad. Gone are Rowand, Everett and Thomas; in are Vazquez and Thome. They will be in the playoff picture right up till the very end.
Hitting: Rowand’s terrific center field defense will be missed, but Thome looks like he’s still got it; he hit eight homers in his final seven spring training games. Konerko may lead the league in RBI hitting behind him. Mackowiak gives them good flexibility, and maybe Crede’s postseason success will carry into this year. Dye’s healthy season was an anomaly, look for a DL stint this year; after all, this is a guy who once missed multiple games because of spider bites.
Pitching: With this starting rotation, it would surprise no one if the White Sox did, in fact, repeat as champions. Contreras looks here to stay, now that he’s attacking the strike zone; it just took a little longer than expected. How will Vazquez and his fly-ball tendencies play in U.S. Cellular Field, the most homer-friendly park in the Majors? Buehrle and Garland can’t possibly be as good as they were last year. Bobby Jenks is electric, but a wildcard for the time being. Don’t count on 30 of their first 31 saves to be converted like Hermanson did last year.
3. Minnesota Twins 88-74
Overview: The Twins scored the fewest runs in the league last year and figure to employ the worst bottom third of the order in the AL yet again. Still, with their pitching, they can contend. Sending Bartlett down to the minors was a step backward; the team will once again struggle to score enough runs.
Hitting: Hunter’s return will help, and Castillo’s OBP will be a welcome addition. But it all comes down to Mauer and Morneau; if the Twins are going to be a threat, the M&M boys need to play up to their potential. Count on it happening. It’s also quite possible that Cuddyer and/or Kubel start producing. This franchise hasn’t had someone hit 30 homers in a season since 1987.
Pitching: Johan is the best pitcher in baseball, period. The staff is going to need to carry the offense, something they might have a chance of doing. Lohse is having a great spring, but if Liriano replaced him in the rotation, it might just be the best in baseball. Baker, Radke and Silva (9 BB in 188 IP!) are all reliable, and when Liriano does get his chance, he’ll make the most of it. Nathan, Rincon and Crain form a rock solid pen.
4. Detroit Tigers 64-98
Overview: Jim Leyland, the man who smokes in the dugout while coaching, returns to the game and may be wondering what he got himself into as early as May. There are some offensive players in place, but in a tough division, wins will be hard to come by.
Hitting: Will Magglio Ordonez start producing after he signed the $75 million deal? How much does Pudge have left? Granderson is a nice young talent. Polanco was the toughest batter in all of baseball to strikeout last year, and was a steal for Urbina, who remains in the clink. Why not carry Josh Phelps, who had a respectable 1595 OPS this spring, and play him against lefties? It’s not rocket science.
Pitching: This will be the year Bonderman becomes a true ace. He has the ability to be one of the best starters in all of the AL. Verlander and Zumaya will also be special, but are a few years away. The Gambler for $16 million? Kenny Rogers, their Opening Day starter, is not the answer; nor is Todd Jones for $11 million. The bullpen will struggle in what could be a long year in Detroit.
5. Kansas City Royals 55-107
Overview: The Royals will hold off the Marlins to finish with the worst record in baseball for the second straight year. There’s not much to get excited about here; instead of building for the future, the teams acquires Mientkiewicz and Grudzielanek.
Hitting: Well, at least Mike Sweeney has a better chance to stay relatively healthy now becoming a full-time DH. Reggie Sanders was a nice addition but can’t be counted on to stay healthy. DeJesus is underrated and was worth signing long-term. This offense should be anemic, however.
Pitching: Zack Greinke was put on the 60-day DL because of mental issues; a loss they could ill afford with their lack of depth. Redman, Elarton and Mays are dreary additions. Is Affeldt ever going to stop disappointing? Andy Sisco might have the best long-term outlook of anyone on the staff.
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