Alfonso Soriano – The good: he’s still a 30/30 threat and in a contract year. The bad: he now calls RFK home and is unhappy with being forced to play leftfield. The ugly: his .224/.265/.374 line away from Ameriquest Field last year. Take Utley over him.
Andruw Jones – He’s going too early. Sure, he’s only 28 and last year’s improvement was overdue, but remember the .267 career average. Plus, he doesn’t even steal any bases anymore. The 51-homer campaign will almost assuredly go down as a career-high; let someone else overpay.
Rafael Furcal – He’s returning from knee surgery, has a .157 career average in his new Dodger Stadium home, and is more likely to swipe 25 bases than 50. Don’t overpay for him like the Dodgers did.
Derrek Lee – Listen, the guy absolutely deserved MVP last year. He was robbed and the fact he finished third was a joke. This year, however, I recommend staying away. Last year screams career year and was a complete aberration. He hit .287 with 19 HR in the second half last year, which is the pace to be expected this year. He will put up solid numbers, just not top 8 numbers, which is what he’ll cost.
Cliff Floyd – His latest kidney issue only compounds the problems that come with Floyd. Before last year, he hadn’t reached even 400 at bats since 2002. The injury risk is simply too great for what it’ll cost to get him this year. If you must go after an injury-prone outfielder, take J.D. Drew.
Jeff Suppan – Sports Illustrated has him as their 19th ranked SP. Huh? This after they had the legendary Reggie Williams as their 19th ranked WR. Anyway, Suppan’s ERA was fine, but a sub-par 1.38 WHIP suggests a return to over 4.00 is in the cards. He also sports a terrible strikeout rate. Wins will be the only category he contributes in, which makes him a fine pick after maybe 60 SP are off the board, not 18.
Bartolo Colon – Last year Colon robbed Santana of the Cy Young, this year he should be avoided. Don’t expect another 1.16 WHIP; after all, his career line stands at 1.31. Weight issues, shoulder concerns and decreased spring velocity are all reasons to stay away.
Mark Buehrle – Definitely a solid pitcher but typically going a bit too early. Look for his second half numbers of 3.84 ERA and 1.28 WHIP to be more in line of what’s in store for Buehrle this year. Also, he threw 260 innings last year when you include the post-season. I’d let someone else take him.
Chris Capuano – Wins are the flukiest stat. A repeat of 18 wins this year is about as likely as Kevin Federline having a successful rap career. Concentrate more on the post All-Star break numbers of 4.42 ERA and 1.44 WHIP and steer clear.
Todd Jones – This is obvious but still merits acknowledgment. Last year he was unreal. Ignore it. He’s old, switching to the American League and figures to do more harm than good when it comes to ERA and WHIP.
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