These are the pitchers who are holding the most value in many of the drafts I’ve seen. Simply put, target these guys and thank me later…
Johan Santana – I don’t understand why most “experts” subscribe to the theory of waiting on starting pitching. No other SP is even close to Johan; the same cannot be said for any offensive player. Draft A-Rod and Pujols if you must, but Johan is the clear choice at number three.
Jake Peavy – Since most leagues tend to wait on SP, take advantage of this and pounce on my #2 rated starter. The injury risk is definitely there, but with Petco’s aid and his filthy arsenal, look for Peavy to be polishing a Cy Young at year’s end. Pitching in the NL West makes it almost unfair.
Rich Harden – Another big time talent to yet reach his potential. Take advantage of his recent DL stints (none of which had anything to do with his throwing arm) and get a potential top 3 SP. Next year it will take a much higher pick to nab him.
Ben Sheets – Make sure he drops. I’m thinking he will. If he falls past rounds 5 or 6, go for it. In some drafts, he may last even longer. It’s looking like his latest injury concern is not as serious as originally feared. So what if he misses his first start. His WHIP contribution just might be second-to-none.
Curt Schilling – I love targeting guys coming off abnormally bad years, and in Schilling’s case, he even has an excuse. Now more healthy than at any point last year, look for a big bounce back. Even if his ERA hovers around 4.00, Schilling’s extra motivation will reward you with superior WHIP, strikeouts and wins.
Jeremy Bonderman – It’s time for the breakthrough. Bonderman, still only 23, had a solid season last year all the way up until the final month, when he tired and his ERA inflated. Don’t look at the final numbers. Look into drafting him, however.
John Patterson – They don’t call him “Big Nasty” for nothing. Patterson has continued his breakout season from last year with a lights out spring. The fifth overall pick in 1996 took longer than expected to develop, but it looks like he was worth the wait. RFK and the addition of a changeup don’t hurt matters either.
Randy Johnson – Rounds 5-8 are simply too late for a guy who will contribute so heavily in wins, strikeouts and WHIP. Even if he can’t post a sub-4.00 ERA, he still is a threat to win 20 with that lineup. His strong second half numbers suggest the decline has been exaggerated.
Erik Bedard – Another case of an injury ruining final numbers in an otherwise impressive campaign. Leo Mazzone will get the most out of him; make sure he’s on your team when it happens.
Francisco Liriano – The Nathan, Liriano and Bonser for Pierzynski deal is the most lopsided trade that no one talks about in recent memory. Liriano, once thought to be too injury-prone to ever have any success, is now one of the best prospects alive. Talk up how he won’t have a rotation spot to begin the year. Then draft him late and you’ve got THE steal of the draft.
Kyle Davies – Davies will probably go undrafted in most leagues, but what about when John Thomson gets dealt, which is rumored to be happening soon? Davies will become a fixture in the Atlanta rotation and has sleeper written all over him.
Brad Penny, Derek Lowe, Odalis Perez, Jae Seo and Chris Young – Not only will all of these guys outperform their numbers from last year, but their ballparks and division make them great bets to succeed beyond where most are being drafted.
Tom Gordon – I’m seeing him go way too late. This is the guy who once saved 54 straight games, 54! His stuff is still filthy, his workload will be more manageable now back in the closer’s role, and he joins a team that figures to put up runs in bunches. The best value of any closer.
Neal Cotts – Bobby Jenks has a great future ahead of him, but for this year, he’s riskier than talking trash to Danny Bonaduce. Once injury or wildness strikes, Cotts will effectively take over the role of closer for the World Champs.
Jonathan Papelbon – Numerous shots of a joint lubricant called Synvisc into Foulke’s knees? That can’t be good. The over/under on Foulke going down is somewhere around June 1. Papelbon is the sneaky alternative once it happens.
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