1. Los Angeles Dodgers 88-74
Overview: Why does everyone trash Paul DePodesta? It’s almost as if the media don’t pay attention. Jim Tracy didn’t help; Hee Seop Choi had an 1103 OPS in 31 games as a No. 2 hitter, then never hit there again. Choi was part of the deal that netted Penny for Mota. Starters are more valuable than relievers people; how’s Mota turned out since then by the way? Further claiming the organization took a huge step backward by making DePodesta their scapegoat would take an article in itself, so we’ll look to the future instead. Furcal for $39 million when you already have the NL’s best defensive shortstop? Still, the Dodgers have the players intact for an immediate playoff run.
Hitting: J.D. Drew’s huge contract contributed to DePodesta’s undoing (sorry, I still can’t get off the misinterpreted Moneyball disciple), and $55 million is admittedly risky for such an injury-prone player. But the guy is a stud when he does play (career OPS over 900), and last year’s broken wrist resulted from getting hit by a pitch, something that could’ve happened to anyone. If age doesn’t catch up to Garciaparra, Kent, Mueller and Lofton, runs will be put on the board.
Pitching: Their strong point. Penny, Lowe, Perez and Seo (a nice pickup by Colleti) make one of the best foursomes in baseball. Gagne may not be 100 percent but even at 90 percent, he will be effective. Baez provides solid insurance and will be motivated for his impending free agency. The Dodgers look poised to take the NL West.
2. San Francisco Giants 87-75
Overview: The Giants have been mortgaging the future for a few years now. Playing for immediate returns isn’t a terrible idea considering the Bonds situation, but the future looks bleak after some of Sabean’s head-scratching moves. This year, though, the Giants should be able to make one final post-season run, with Bonds the center of uncertainty and possible success.
Hitting: Felipe Alou will almost assuredly continue to fail at arranging lineups correctly, and Winn will go back to being Winn after his unbelievable run in a Giants uniform last year. Still, there is the possibility of some decent production here. The Sweeney/Niekro platoon could actually be sneakily productive, but this again calls for Felipe to be cognizant, something that may take awhile. Obviously, this all comes down to Bonds. He will be motivated, and there still isn’t anyone alive who affects a game the way he does.
Pitching: Although Schmidt’s velocity isn’t all the way back, look for him to return to form and anchor the staff. Lowry’s changeup is one of the best in baseball, and Cain will make a run at ROY. Matt Morris is the key here. The spring results have not been encouraging, which is especially bad news considering the No. 5 starter, Jamey Wright, should be one of the worst in the league. The big three really need to carry this staff because the bullpen figures to be a weak point as well.
3. San Diego Padres 78-84
Overview: Last year’s NL West winner with only an 82-80 record, the Padres will have more of a battle on their hands this year with improved LA and SF clubs. Mike Cameron’s terrific defense will be a welcome addition to spacious Petco Park. Giving up Loretta for Mirabelli and then signing Piazza was quite perplexing.
Hitting: Padre fans better hope Castilla hits toward the bottom of the lineup or this is going to be a long season. How much he, Piazza and Klesko have left in the tank are big question marks. Khalil Greene will breakout one of these years, and Giles remains great, but runs will not be coming in bunches.
Pitching: Peavy will win a Cy Young the year he stays healthy. Chris Young will find Petco to his liking and produce solid numbers. It gets sketchy after that as far as the rotation is concerned. Dewon Brazelton may prove to be quite the pickup, but is probably still a few years away from truly blossoming. The bullpen will once again be a strong suit.
4. Arizona Diamondbacks 70-92
Overview: The D-Backs will be starting a major youth movement and are due for some growing pains this year. But with Conor Jackson, Carlos Quentin, Stephen Drew, Chris Young and Justin Upton, the future looks promising.
Hitting: Maybe the biggest surprise of the entire league last year was Tony Clark’s 1003 OPS. Chad Tracy should slide into the three-hole and produce good numbers. How much does Shawn Green have left? Is this the year Orlando Hudson breaks out?
Pitching: Adding a cut fastball will help Webb continue to improve on his already impressive numbers. Also, his extreme groundball ratio will play very well with the addition of Hudson, baseball’s premiere defensive second basemen. After Webb, though, things don’t look quite as good. Russ Ortiz is probably the most overpaid player in all of baseball: $33 million for someone who had an ERA over 8.00 after April last year, ouch. The recent Juan Cruz acquisition will prove to be savvy, and Valverde will settle nicely into the closer’s role.
5. Colorado Rockies 68-94
Overview: The Rockies can’t seem to make any progress. Maybe now, sticking with players within the organization, they will begin to show signs of improvement – probably not too much though.
Hitting: Helton’s back problems may prevent him from ever regaining his power stroke but his average will remain high. Home run numbers may have dropped significantly last year in Coors Field but it still led all of baseball in hits, so runs will still be plentiful. Look for the trend of inept hitting away from Coors to continue.
Pitching: Why Francis pitches better in Coors than on the road is confounding and anyone’s guess. He should be better this year, however. Aaron Cook made an impressive recovery from lung blood clot surgery and may be this year’s ace of the staff. Byung-Hyun Kim has been surprisingly effective for the Rockies. If Jose Mesa’s over/under for ERA was 6.50, I’d take the over.
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