National League Central Preview

1. St. Louis Cardinals 93-69

Overview: You’ve heard it before, but this team is built for dominance in the regular season. Carpenter has emerged as a true ace, and LaRussa and Duncan just plain get it done. Rolen and Edmonds’ health combined with the loss of Larry Walker make them slightly more vulnerable, but they should have more than enough weapons to be crowned division champs.

Hitting: How many consecutive MVP awards can Pujols win? Seriously, he might have started an unprecedented run with last year’s honor. The man with the greatest 5-year start in MLB history makes this team the favorite to win the NL. How much power will Rolen regain after shoulder surgery? Why not just re-sign Sanders instead of giving Encarnacion $15 million? Still, runs will not be hard to come by.

Pitching: Carpenter is finally living up to his ability and barring any health issues, should continue to dominate this year. Dan Haren is already the better pitcher, but still, Mulder will be focused in his contract year; a refined delivery could also bring some improvement upon last year’s so-so debut in a Cardinals uniform. Suppan and Marquis bring stability, and if anyone can get positive results from Sidney Ponson, it’s Duncan. Anthony Reyes will eventually become a big part of this staff.

2. Milwaukee Brewers 85-77

Overview: The Brew Crew will be battling the Astros for a second place finish throughout the year. Maybe still a year away from truly contending, the Brewers will be fielding their most competitive team in years. Much like Pedro and the Mets, their season hangs in Sheets’ balance.

Hitting: Fielder and Weeks will need some time to realize their vast potential, but this lineup might be one of the deepest in all of baseball. Bill Hall doesn’t even have a regular spot but will be productive in a super-utility role. If Jenkins can stay relatively healthy, he’ll get his first 100 RBI season. Carlos Lee will put up big numbers before he enters free agency.

Pitching: It looks like a huge bullet was dodged, and Sheets will only miss the first couple weeks of the year. If healthy, he can contend for the Cy Young. Davis and Capuano are solid enough, and Bush was a great addition to the staff; in fact, he may prove to be their second best starter this year. Turnbow, Wise, Lehr and Capellan possess the ability to be an overpowering bullpen.

3. Houston Astros 84-78

Overview: The Astros have gotten off to terrible starts for two straight years now – something that could factor into Clemens’ decision to return or not if it happens again. Still, the smart money is on a Clemens June return. Maybe their run production problem will cease with Lane’s development, and the addition of Preston Wilson, but the back of the rotation figures to be their downfall.

Hitting: Berkman will enter the year stronger, as he is now a year removed from ACL surgery. Put a fork in Bagwell; he’s done. Although they should be able to score more frequently than last year, run production should still be something of a problem.

Pitching: Oswalt and Pettitte are a great one-two punch. After that, there’s Backe, Buchholz and a guy named Wandy. Ouch. Still, the Astros were 56-36 in games started by Oswalt, Pettitte or Backe last year and only 15-17 in games Clemens started, so there is hope. The back-end of this rotation is ugly though. Don’t worry about Lidge’s post-season struggles; he will go back to being unhittable this year.

4. Chicago Cubs 81-81

Overview: With Zambrano, Prior, Wood and Maddux, the Cubs should be yearly World Series threats; unfortunately, things haven’t gone according to plan. Maybe it could feasibly all be blamed on Dusty Baker; the guy cannot manage his pitchers. There seems to be more at work here, however. Anyway, expect another disappointing season for the Cubbies.

Hitting: Lee has nowhere to go but down from last year’s incredible campaign, but he and a healthy year from Ramirez create a formidable duo. Baker loves his veterans, so Neifi Perez again figures to get way too many at-bats. Baker will also assuredly miscast Jacque Jones as a regular – he needs to be sat versus lefties. This offense looks average at best.

Pitching: Zambrano worked hard this off-season and has his eyes on the Cy Young. With his emotions in check, he will make a strong run at it. Prior and Wood are the obvious question marks. People have to be sick of the words potential with these two. Maybe one year it will all come together, but it doesn’t look to be this one. Maddux had his 15-win streak snapped at 17 last year, but still remains an asset. Jerome Williams continues to underachieve.

5. Cincinnati Reds 72-90

Overview: The Reds led the NL in runs scored last year. After trading away Wily Mo Pena and seriously considering giving Tony Womack significant at-bats, don’t look for a repeat. Their hitting still far outweighs their pitching, however. Defense will be a real problem for them.

Hitting: Dunn is the favorite to lead the majors in home runs. Encarnacion is showing signs of breaking out. Kearns will live up to his potential one of these years. The LaRue/Valentin combo produces the best numbers of any catching situation in baseball. Why Womack would start over Freel is beyond me.

Pitching: Pitching in Great American Ball Park, where the most home runs in any stadium were hit in 2005, is not kind to the Reds staff. Harang, Claussen and Arroyo form a solid enough trio, but things get ugly after that. Milton has to improve because it might be impossible to get any worse than he was last year – 6.47 ERA. He’ll give returns on his $25.5 million contract with at least a sub-5.00 ERA in 2006. With no obvious closer candidate, look for Ryan Wagner to eventually settle into the role once thought to be his.

6. Pittsburgh Pirates 72-90

Overview: It should be a heated battle to the very end in the NL Central, with the Reds and Pirates battling for the rights for fifth place. The Pirates actually have a lot of young pitching talent, and the teams’ outlook is better than usual.

Hitting: Bay is a superstar waiting to happen. Too bad he will have to carry the entire offense on his shoulders. At least the team traded for Casey, whose solid OBP will be directly in front of Bay. Duffy, Burnitz, J. Wilson and Randa are all uninspiring. How can this team possibly not find room for Craig Wilson’s bat? It’s their loss.

Pitching: Oliver Perez is a huge wildcard: capable of dominating but also prone to wildness. His velocity has been down this spring, but look for a better year than last. Duke has great upside and contributed immediately when given the chance last year. Tom Gorzelanny is a nice looking prospect and should join the rotation by midseason. Mike Gonzalez could emerge as one of the most dominant closers as soon as this year. It’s unfortunate they dealt Williams and/or Redman, an all-lefty rotation would have been sweet.


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One response to “National League Central Preview”

  1. Philip Avatar
    Philip

    yeah i will argue nash vs. kobe for MVP with you….funny how things change so quick as you take foot out of mouth

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