By Dalton Del Don

After throwing the most pitches (3,914) in all of baseball last year, I avoided Cole Hamels at the draft table in 2009. And while I’m still concerned with his health moving forward, he’s actually a pretty good trade target right now, especially for teams lower in the standings trying to swing for the fences. He currently sports a 4.98 ERA and 1.47 WHIP, which makes zero sense combined with an elite 4.3:1 K:BB ratio. Looking at his pitch types, he’s throwing his fastball a bit more this season and his curveball less, but his velocity is pretty much the same (90.0 mph compared to 90.4 mph last year), and he claims he feels perfectly fine physically. Actually, his control has improved this season compared to last (1.91 BB/9 versus 2.10) as well as his K rate (8.15 K/9 versus 7.76), and his G/F ratio is a career-best (1.27). With a .371 BABIP (career-mark is .284), a .684 strand rate and a 13.3% HR/F ratio, few pitchers have been unluckier this season. In fact, Hamels’ xFIP (3.38) is the ninth best in MLB, so it’s safe to expect a terrific second half of the season, assuming last year’s workload doesn’t prevent it.

Carl Crawford has been nothing short of fantastic this season, and he’s likely on plenty of fantasy teams leading their league. But I don’t see a big difference in value between him and Jacoby Ellsbury moving forward. Crawford possesses more power, but his career-high in homers is just 18, and he’s only surpassed 11 bombs twice during his career (although he’s almost certain to do so this year). And it’s not as great of a difference as one would think, as Crawford has hit a home run once every 52.6 at-bats throughout his career, while Ellsbury has done so once every 60.5 ABs. Ellsbury already has better plate discipline (20:29 K:BB compared to 26:52), and while Crawford currently holds the advantage in RBI and runs scored, with Ellsbury hitting in Boston’s lineup and Fenway Park, that gap should narrow in the future. After all, Crawford’s career OPS is .770, and Ellsbury’s is .758. I’m not trying to take anything away from Crawford, who has returned to the fantasy elite this year, it’s just that Ellsbury isn’t far behind, and given the choice between the two of who will steal more bases over the rest of the season, my money is on Ellsbury. Of course, I’d happily take B.J. Upton over both of them.

Over his last five starts, Jordan Zimmermann has a 2.12 ERA, 1.01 WHIP and 28:7 K:BB ratio. He has just three wins with a 4.52 ERA on the season, but this rookie has an even better K rate (8.92/9) than Zack Greinke, and his average fastball velocity (93.3 mph) ranks 14^th best in baseball. Zimmermann also keeps the ball on the ground (1.18 G/F), and while wins could be elusive pitching for the Nationals, if he qualified, his xFIP (3.35) would be better than pitchers such as Josh Johnson, Felix Hernandez, Yovani Gallardo and Chad Billingsley. It really wouldn’t be too big of a stretch to call Zimmermann a top-30 fantasy starter right now.

If you prorate Joey Votto’s numbers over 162 games, here’s what pace he’s on this season: .366 BA, 30 homers, 134 RBI, 93 runs scored and seven steals, which means he’ll have to be considered during the second round of drafts in 2010. Of course, his .402 BABIP reveals an inevitable decline in average, but this is a 25-year-old who posted a .959 OPS after the All-Star break last season and has recorded a sick 15:20 K:BB ratio over his past 28 games. Votto is actually hitting left-handers better than righties this season, and he plays in a home park that has been the third most conducive to home runs in all of baseball this year. I’d prefer Votto to Adrian Gonzalez or Ryan Howard over the rest of this season.

Jair Jurrjens posted a 1.72 ERA and 1.24 WHIP during June despite an ugly 16:14 K:BB ratio over 31.1 innings, making him a sell-high candidate at the time. While those peripherals suggested a major crash was in store, he’s followed that up with ERAs of 3.38 and 3.68 during May and June, respectively, and a funny thing happened along the way – he started pitching much better. In May he posted a 2.7:1 K:BB ratio, and over his last 41.1 innings, he’s tallied a strong 8.49 K/9 mark (and nearly half those starts came against the Red Sox and Phillies), so superior pitching has negated the supposed regression. It’s just something to note – just because a pitcher has been lucky, doesn’t mean he can’t improve in other areas to avoid an inevitable collapse (Matt Cain is another good example here).

Over his last 28 games, Juan Rivera has 10 homers and 29 RBI. He’s done the majority of his damage against left-handers, posting a massive .407/.478/.814 line with six of his 14 homers versus southpaws over just 59 at-bats, but the stats count all the same. Finally given a chance as a full-time player, he’s taking full advantage of the opportunity, and of all American League hitters who have slugged .515 (like he has) or better this season, he’s struck out the fewest amount of times (26) by a wide margin. In fact, the next closest (Victor Martinez) has fanned 15 more times. Rivera is proving to be a steal in fantasy leagues.

For someone with an 8.64 ERA over his last three starts, the window to sell Jered Weaver high has probably passed, and while a complete collapse is hardly in store, further regression should be expected. Through 90.2 innings this season, he had a 2.08 ERA – this despite worse control and a decreased K rate compared to last year, and since 2007, his G/F ratio is going in the wrong direction (0.73, 0.68, 0.59). A low BABIP (.262), high strand rate (.764) and fortunate HR/F rate (8.8%) has had just as much to do with Weaver’s 2009 breakout as any tangible improvement in pitching ability. Don’t get me wrong, he’s solid, but just realize his xFIP (4.58) ranks 65^th among all starters.

Fun fact: Including this year, over the past eight seasons, the pitcher who has faced the toughest schedule (aggregate OPS) has been in the AL East seven times: A.J. Burnett .781 (2009), Matt Garza .767 (2008), Roy Halladay .775 (2007), Josh Beckett .784 (2006), Zack Greinke .767 (2005), Rodrigo Lopez .785 (2004), Victor Zambrano .781 (2003) and Tanyon Sturtze .767 (2002).

By Dalton Del Don

Tim Lincecum won the Cy Young last year, but he’s been an even better pitcher this season, despite a 7.56 ERA after his first two starts. His K rate is ever so slightly down compared to last year, but 10.42/9 is still an acceptable number, and his walk rate is down significantly (2.21 BB/9). His xFIP (2.80) is the second best in baseball, so despite a decrease in velocity (92.5 mph), Lincecum remains one of the three best pitchers in the game. And he’s becoming more efficient too, averaging a staggering 8.75 innings pitched over his last four starts, never throwing more than 110 pitches in the process. The choice between Lincecum or Dan Haren starting the All-Star game is a tough one.

During June, Brett Gardner has posted a .918 OPS with a 4:9 K:BB ratio while swiping eight bags without being caught. He’s also recorded a fantastic 19.3 UZR/150, and for a speedster (he has a remarkable 91% SB success rate throughout his career), Gardner’s three homers have been a nice surprise. Considering he also posted a .955 OPS in May, a slow start in April has really clouded just how good of a player Gardner has been over the past two months.

After a 132-pitch outing on June 16, Gil Meche has been pounded, allowing 13 runs over his last two starts spanning 8.1 innings. There may or may not be causation, but since he’s now dealing with a shoulder injury and decreased velocity, it’s safe to question the decision to leave him in so long (it did result in a complete game shutout), especially since Meche has a history of arm problems when in Seattle.

Do you realize Iran is 11.5 hours ahead of the west coast? I had no idea there were areas in the world that were different on the minute hand. Shows what I know.

Before flying out in the third inning of Tuesday’s game, Jayson Werth had reached base safely in 11 consecutive at-bats.

What has gotten into San Diego starters Kevin Correia and Chad Gaudin? Over his last five starts, Correia has recorded a shocking 29:3 K:BB ratio, including a 9:1 mark against the Rangers in Texas during his latest outing. If you date back to his previous eight starts, he’s posted a 42:7 K:BB ratio, so this sample size is starting to grow. Watching him pitch for the Giants over the past couple of years, the recent success is pretty hard to consider real, but it’s becoming difficult to ignore the numbers – his .281 BABIP has been fortunate, but he’s got an unlucky strand rate (.680), and he’s increased his G/F ratio (1.23) quite a bit. Pitching in the NL West and in Petco Park, Correia is worth adding in deep leagues. As for Gaudin, how about a 28:5 K:BB ratio over his last three starts? With a 9.42 K/9 mark on the season, only terrible command (4.58 BB/9) keeps him from being highly intriguing. Still, what are they putting in the water in San Diego?

In honor of Billy Mays dying, here are my two favorite recent infomercials: The Comfort Wipe. And The Smart Mop. Truly outstanding.

Maybe it was his name and my unfamiliarity with Shin-Soo Choo, but I really missed the boat here, as he’s becoming one of the most underrated fantasy commodities in 2009. Choo posted a .946 OPS last year, and he’s on pace to finish this season with 21 homers, 25 steals, 93 runs scored and 93 RBI. He hasn’t been caught on any of his 12 SB attempts, and while his .365 BABIP appears high, that number sits at .369 over his 509 career at-bats. Choo is just 26 years old, so he looks like a keeper.

Joel Zumaya brings the heat.

Lastings Milledge has a bunch of potential, and no 24-year-old should ever be written off, but there’s no way the Nationals should automatically be considered losers in the Nyjer Morgan trade. (On a side note, the Mets look really good right now with the superior Ryan Church). Milledge, who by all accounts is a punk, had a .247/.297/.345 line in the minors before getting injured this year and has a reprehensible -15.8 UZR/150 over 242 games during his major league career. Morgan is five years older and isn’t some piece to a championship puzzle, but he has a .351 OBP during his career (terrible baserunner though, especially for someone with his speed), which is more than acceptable for someone playing the best outfield defense (23.5 UZR/150) in all of baseball, something he’s consistently done throughout his brief career. When you consider that has come while manning center field, an extremely important position that Elijah Dukes has been butchering (-23.8 UZR/150) all season, the Nationals just got better.

Before singling in the first inning Tuesday, Mike Jacobs had one RBI over his past 101 plate appearances (h/t Joe Poz).

I’m starting to believe in Joel Pineiro. Under almost all circumstances, I’d call a pitcher with such a good ERA yet a 3.81 K/9 rate a fraud, but his control has been impeccable (1.09 BB/9), and most importantly, no one has induced more groundballs (61.9%) this season, and it’s not even all that close. Pineiro has been lucky with a 4.6% HR/F rate, but it’s not like a ton of balls will start flying over the fence when that normalizes considering how few actually get there, and a 3.81 xFIP reinforces his legitimacy. His .300 BABIP is right in line with his career mark, and a .693 strand rate should only improve. Normally you wouldn’t have to recommend picking up a pitcher with a 3.44 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP, but I was able to do so in three of my leagues this past week, including one that is 15 teams deep. Dave Duncan has done it again.

I’ve been participating in a fantasy basketball mock draft over at Yahoo’s Roto Arcade. Here’s round 1. And here’s round 2. If you’re interested.

I’m currently doing a mock fantasy basketball draft over at Yahoo’s Roto Arcade. Here are the results of round one.

1. Evan Longoria
2. Alex Rodriguez
3. David Wright

4. Mark Reynolds
5. Chipper Jones
6. Aramis Ramirez

7. Pablo Sandoval
8. Mark DeRosa
9. Ryan Zimmerman
10. Chone Figgins

11. Michael Young
12. Hank Blalock
13. Garrett Atkins
14. Edwin Encarnacion
15. Ian Stewart
16. Casey Blake
17. Brandon Inge
18. Scott Rolen
19. Mike Lowell
20. Emilio Bonifacio

1. Albert Pujols

2. Mark Teixeira
3. Prince Fielder
4. Miguel Cabrera

5. Justin Morneau
6. Joey Votto
7. Adrian Gonzalez
8. Ryan Howard
9. Kevin Youkilis

10. Lance Berkman
11. Carlos Pena
12. Paul Konerko
13. Todd Helton
14. Derrek Lee
15. James Loney
16. Adam LaRoche
17. Russell Branyan
18. Jorge Cantu
19. Aubrey Huff
20. Kendry Morales

By Dalton Del Don

Over his last six starts, Felix Hernandez has a 1.00 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. Three games against the NL West have certainly helped, but after back-to-back seasons with WHIPs approaching 1.40, Hernandez may finally be realizing all that potential, and it’s easy to forget he’s still just 23 years old. While his command could still use some improvement, his 8.68 K/9 mark is a career-best, and despite Seattle fielding one of the better defenses in baseball, Hernandez’s BABIP (.311) has hardly been lucky. While his G/F ratio has dropped from a remarkable 2.67 in 2007, of the top-30 starting pitchers who have induced the most groundballs in 2009, Hernandez has the best K rate by a wide margin, which is the type of combination that could eventually lead to a Cy Young.

Quietly, Brad Hawpe has developed into a superstar this season. In fact, you’d be hard pressed to find a more overlooked hitter with a .900-plus OPS over the past four years. Sure, he’s probably the worst defensive outfielder in baseball (-46.6 UZR/150 last season!), but his current .338/.411/.605 line more than makes up for it. And while Hawpe has certainly taken advantage of Coors Field, he’s actually posted a .912 OPS while hitting three more homers on the road than at home this season. He’s also shown marked improvement against lefties, with a .977 OPS. He can safely be considered a top-20 fantasy outfielder.

Speaking of Coors Field products, it’s safe to call Billy Beane the loser in the Matt Holliday trade. While Holliday turned in a fine May, he currently looks like a league average corner outfielder, which is the same player he always was when outside of Coors Field throughout his Rockies career. Because he’s continuing to run and bats in the middle of the lineup, Holliday remains a productive fantasy option, but it’s highly doubtful Beane could get a similar package as Carlos Gonzalez and Huston Street in return right now. An excellent defender and terrific base runner, Holliday is no scrub, but he’s also about to become quite expensive, and because of the change in economy and disappointing A’s season, Beane may be forced to deal him soon, as his alternative (letting him sign elsewhere after the season and getting draft picks in return) may no longer be an option, as there’s a real chance Holliday would now accept arbitration (which Oakland would have to offer in order to get compensatory picks) during the offseason, and his price would unlikely fit in the Athletics’ plans.

The Dodgers have the best record in baseball and may very well not have one starter in the All-Star game.

I hesitate to recommend Homer Bailey, who has done nothing but disappoint when given opportunities in the majors, but the same could be said about Edwin Jackson entering 2009, and some pitching prospects just take longer to “get it” than position players. Since adding a split-finger fastball, which the organization had previously prohibited, Bailey is 4-0 with a 0.47 ERA and a 38:7 K:BB ratio over his last five starts. Finally junking the changeup, Bailey is also regularly working in the 96 mph range, so while I wouldn’t necessarily start him Saturday against the Indians, I would stash him if possible.

With Carlos Beltran sidelined with a knee injury, Ryan Church is looking at a lot of time in the middle of the Mets’ lineup. He doesn’t offer a ton of power/speed potential, but he is running more than ever this season (five steals), and remember, he had nine homers over just 42 games before a second concussion ruined his season last year. Church has a strong .309/.381/.491 line in June, and he stands to benefit while finally getting some job security.  There are worse options for those in deeper leagues.

I was high on Ricky Nolasco entering 2009, and through two months, he was so bad, a trip to the minors was rightfully in store. Sure, a crazy high BABIP was partially to blame, but that certainly didn’t ease the damage he caused fantasy owners. With a 1.80 ERA, 1.12 WHIP and a 25:5 K:BB ratio over four starts since rejoining Florida, it looks like a nice second half could be in store. While his BABIP is likely to continue to go down, it’s worth noting the Florida defense is pretty awful, so he’ll have to deal with that over the remainder of the season, but it’s safe to say Nolasco deserves better considering his current 3.94 xFIP. Obviously it’s too late to buy-low, but hopefully frustrated owners didn’t cut bait, as the 8.13 K/9 and 3.44:1 K:BB ratio are legit.

1. Los Angeles Clippers - Blake Griffin
2. Memphis Grizzlies – Hasheem Thabeet
3. Oklahoma City Thunder – Ricky Rubio
4. Sacramento Kings – Tyreke Evans
5. Minnesota Timberwolves – James Harden
6. Minnesota Timberwolves – Stephen Curry
7. Golden State Warriors – Jordan Hill
8. New York Knicks – Jonny Flynn
9. Toronto Raptors – DeMar DeRozan
10. Milwaukee Bucks – Jrue Holiday
11. New Jersey Nets - Terrence Williams
12. Charlotte Bobcats – Gerald Henderson
13. Indiana Pacers – DeJuan Blair
14. Phoenix Suns – Earl Clark
15. Detroit Pistons – B.J. Mullens

By Dalton Del Don

There have been a lot of rookies who have failed to impress this year, but Colby Rasmus isn’t one of them. His .772 OPS doesn’t jump out, and his .114/.220/.182 line against southpaws is an abomination, but Rasmus is hitting .358 in June, and his defense in center field has been the absolute best in baseball (30.1 UZR/150). Moreover, he recorded 74 steals with an 81% success rate over four abbreviated seasons in the minors, so more activity on the basepaths should be expected (he has just one steal this season). Better plate discipline is a must, but Rasmus looks like a keeper.

Troy Tulowitzki has been a star during June, posting a 1.146 OPS with five homers and five steals over 18 games. After some trepidation with a slow start following last season’s disaster, it’s clear Tulow’s true skill resembles the player he was back in 2007. His walk rate has skyrocketed, and despite a terrible 53% success rate throughout his career, his nine steals in 2009 already represent a career-high. With Coors Field aiding him and an obvious green light on the basepaths, it wouldn’t be a stretch to call him the second most valuable fantasy shortstop.

I like playing golf, but I’m one of those spectators who only pays attention during the majors. But this is pretty impressive.

While he’s suffered a couple of minor injuries in the process, Khalil Greene has hit three homers over his first three starts since rejoining St. Louis. Notably, he’s also yet to strike out since returning from his bout with anxiety. His absence was short enough to question whether the issue has been truly solved, but judging from comments, it seems his frame of mind is finally in the right place. And there’s absolutely a spot at third base for him. Remember, Greene hit 27 homers with 97 RBI just two seasons ago while playing half his games in Petco Park, and with a .226 BABIP this year, there’s room for plenty of improvement from here on out. There’s actually a decent amount of upside, and there’s no way he shouldn’t be owned in any league that isn’t extremely shallow.

I just don’t understand why the Celtics are shopping Rajon Rondo – and make no mistake, they are. Even Danny Ainge didn’t deny this Tuesday, only arguing against the reason WHY he was (Rondo showed up late to a playoff game, etc.). Am I missing something here? It’s not a stretch to call Rondo one of the best young players in the NBA or the most valuable commodity on Boston’s current roster…As someone who lives 90 miles from Sacramento, the Kings BETTER not pass on Ricky Rubio.

Elijah Dukes has to be one of the worst base runners I’ve ever seen. He’s a stellar 2-for-9 during SB attempts this season. And he’s not any better from station to station either.

Over 59 at-bats from the right side in 2009, Randy Winn has posted a .102/.115/.136 line – he had a .934 and an .812 OPS from that side during each of the past two seasons, respectively.

Sticking with my beloved Giants – and this may only interest SF fans and NL-only players – but I’ve read a lot of misinformation recently regarding their infield alignment. Let me be clear, the team could definitely upgrade, but based on the current roster, the best lineup features Travis Ishikawa at first base. The only reason he was benched for a 10-game stretch earlier this month is because Pablo Sandoval, the team’s best hitter by far, had to move to 1B because he was hurt and couldn’t make the throws from 3B. Well, he’s healthy now and back to the hot corner, and Ishikawa, who currently has an MLB-best 25.0 UZR/150 rating at first base and slugged seven homers during spring training, has hit three long balls over the past four games. Ishikawa is no star, but he can be useful despite the terrible April, and Juan Uribe should never be in the lineup at his expense.

Not to go too overboard on SF news, but it looks like there’s a real chance Madison Bumgarner will be pitching for the Giants this season. Still, those in redraft leagues shouldn’t feel the need to roster him right now, as his recent performance (12:6 K:BB ratio over the past 20 innings) suggests the learning curve remains fairly steep.

Howie Kendrick has hit .333/.385/.556 with a homer and two steals over nine games since getting sent down to the minors, so he needs to be picked up if any impatient owner dropped him.

During Sunday Night Baseball on ESPN, Steve Phillips had this to say: “Juan Pierre is a difference maker in this lineup. They are different with him in the lineup.” And he was absolutely correct – they are worse.

So I’ve tried to trade for Alex Rodriguez in a couple of my leagues to no avail. He’s actually a pretty interesting case. On one hand, he’s an excellent buy-low target, entering Tuesday batting .153 in June and with a .198 BABIP on the season. And with his recent benching for “rest” in the news, including the fact he’ll sit at least once a week from here to the All-Star break, his owners may be willing to move him. Rodriguez was coming off a big May and is now playing in the most HR-friendly park in the majors, so he could be a monster from here on out. However, as Tom Verducci recently noted, ARod has hit just .246 since he turned 33 last July 27. Over that span his OPS is .880 (compared to .969 beforehand). He’s also stolen just five bases over those 96 games. And the hip is a pretty important part of hitting, so he definitely carries risk. Usually I make a claim, then back it up by numbers, but that isn’t always applicable. To me, Rodriguez just FEELS like someone who could go nuts from here on out.

Harold Reynolds made a recent blog post talking about those kids and their wacky statistics ruining baseball. What stat does he have a problem with in particular? VORP? WPA? UZR? xFIP? No, what really gets under Reynolds’ skin is the crazy, convoluted, new stat known as “OPS” – that’s on-base plus slugging for those of you who haven’t watched a baseball game since the 80s.

I would carry on killing this idiocy, but Joe Posnanski already took care of that.

By Dalton Del Don

With just six wins on the season and playing for a last place team, Dan Haren is getting a little overlooked, as he’s quietly become one of the three best pitchers in baseball since coming to Arizona. His 7.38:1 K/BB ratio ranks best in MLB, and his mediocre record obviously can’t be held against him, since his run support (4.72) ranks 106th among qualified starters, and his bullpen has done him no favors either. Haren has held opponents to a collective .539 OPS, which is a full 50 points lower than the second best mark (Josh Johnson). He’s been fortunate with his hit rate and LOB%, but considering his home park currently ranks second only to Coors Field in boosting run scoring according to Park Factors, Haren’s performance is all that more impressive. Arizona’s defense also ranks in the bottom-10 in efficiency, so it’s not like he’s been getting a ton of help with the gloves behind him either. The guy’s WHIP is 0.82! He was No. 2 on my NL Cy Young ballot last season, but he’s currently atop my list so far in 2009.

Russell Martin has yet to homer this season, and while his stolen bases haven’t made him a total waste, it’s safe to question how much he’s been overworked behind the plate throughout his young career. His OPS dropped 122 points after the break last year, and he’s caught 351 games out of a possible 391 since 2007. His 2009 has been even more frustrating if you read the offseason stories about his rigorous workout routine during winter. Dating back to last year and through spring training this season, Martin has hit one home run over his past 535 at-bats.

Speaking of power outages, Jhonny Peralta has been one of the bigger disappointments so far this year, with just two homers on the season. His on-base percentage is an identical .331 as 2008, but his slugging has dropped from .473 to a miniscule .338. He’s certainly been unlucky with a 4.7% HR/F ratio, but that’s to be expected when you are nearly halfway through the season with two homers. While that rate has been 14.0% and 13.7% over the past two seasons, respectively, the optimism of a correction there is outweighed by a huge increase in groundballs (57.0%) this season, as he’s putting fewer balls in the air than at any time in his career. After finishing with 104 runs scored and 89 RBI in 2008, he’s on pace to end this season with 45 runs and 62 ribbies.

With two wins and a modest 4.30 ERA, Koji Uehara’s debut in the states has hardly overwhelmed, but he actually makes for a decent short-term add with upcoming starts against the Marlins and Nationals. His 3.83:1 K:BB ratio is quite impressive, and with a 1.25 WHIP, Uehara has more than held his own, despite pitching in the tough AL East. He does need to start inducing more groundballs, however, as his current GB% (29.4) is pretty atrocious.

Jayson Werth is on pace to finish the year with 30 homers, 25 steals, 110 runs scored and 88 RBI, and that’s without him really playing up to his potential yet. He’s been injury-prone in the past, but this is possibly the best defensive outfielder in baseball who has been successful on 89% of his stolen base attempts throughout his career. Werth has finally been given a chance to be an everyday player, bats in a good hitter’s park and is a right-hander situated in the middle of a fantastic lineup loaded with lefties. I can’t think of a better under-the-radar 30/30 threat.

Rich Harden remains one of the bigger injury risks in the game, has seen his average fastball velocity drop for the second straight season and has now become an exclusive two-pitch pitcher – he throws his fastball 67.7% and his changeup 32.3% of the time. As recently as 2006, he threw a changeup with just 5.7% frequency, while featuring a split-finger and slider (31% combined) far more often. He was also extremely fortunate after joining the Cubs last season, with a .229 BABIP and .873 strand rate. Moreover, his current 4.17 BB/9 mark would rank in the bottom-10 among starters if he qualified. I note all the negatives to Harden owners because he’s toward the top of my current target list, as there’s still plenty to like. His K rate (11.23/9) easily leads all of baseball, and his ERA sits at 4.53 largely because of a ridiculously high 20.3% HR/F ratio. Harden has typically been around league average in that area throughout his career, so when (a lot) more of those flyballs start finding gloves opposed to going over the fence, a precipitous drop in ERA will follow. Trading for Harden admittedly comes with plenty of risk, but he’s one of the rare pitchers who could be a true monster from here on out, so go get him.

After a 4-for-4 night Thursday, Chris Young has two homers and three steals over his past seven games, so while his overall numbers remain suppressed, the opportunity to truly “buy-low” has all but past. He’ll never be a batting average asset, but there’s real power/speed upside, and since Conor Jackson appears closer to death than returning to the field combined with Young preventing a bunch of runs with strong play in center field, his spot in the lineup is secure. Of course, he ended up leaving Thursday’s game with a leg injury, so that situation needs to be monitored.

I remain skeptical, but at least keeper-leaguers can take solace in the fact Homer Bailey has posted a 30:5 K:BB ratio over his past four starts (31.1 innings). He’d hardly be the first pitcher to develop (far) later than expected (see: Jackson, Edwin). Sticking with the minors, free Clay Buchholz! He has a 1.90 ERA with 65 punchouts over 71.0 innings in Triple-A this season, with a strong 1.35 GO/AO ratio to boot. Sure, Boston needs to find a spot for John Smoltz in the rotation right now, but why must we pretend Tim Wakefield (47:35 K:BB ratio) and Brad Penny (5.96 K/9, 1.96:1 K:BB ratio) are anything less than unacceptable for a team with World Series aspirations like the Red Sox?

By Dalton Del Don

Most of the spin coming out of Cleveland is the “good news” regarding Grady Sizemore, but if you actually read the article, I’m more pessimistic about surgery being in his future than ever. Maybe I’m crazy, but I’d think about selling him for 70 cents on the dollar right now. Maybe even 60 cents.

There isn’t a player having a quieter monstrous season than Prince Fielder, who currently leads major league baseball with 62 RBI. Of course, a .344 batting average with RISP isn’t too sustainable (he’s batting .255 with the bases empty), but it’s clear his true ability is that of the hitter he was in 2007 rather than last season, which mainly consisted of a terribly slow start.

David Wright is on pace to finish the year with 10 home runs, 47 stolen bases and one awkward appearance on “Joe Buck Live,” my favorite new show. Buck ordering a whiskey sour?! How preposterous!

As president of the Jay Cutler fan club, I’ll take great pleasure in watching the Broncos quite possibly finish in last in the AFC West. Of course, the Raiders reside there, so third place is more realistic, but I can’t remember ever seeing a worse offseason than Denver’s. I actually think Brandon Marshall is a little overrated and looked better because of Cutler, but wow, now he’s the next to be traded? On a side note, Eddie Royal is going to be a fantasy monster in 2009. Mark it down. If a draft were held tomorrow, I’d take him ahead of Marshall.

Playing in two keeper leagues – one where I’m currently a buyer and the other a seller – I happen to own Madison Bumgarner in both. I recently entertained dealing him in the former, and luckily the deal fell through, as that would have been akin to selling my first child. There’s actually a slight chance this kid could be pitching in San Francisco in September, and I can’t think of a minor leaguer I’d rather own. Except for Stephen “Jesus Christ” Strasburg, of course.

With another bomb Tuesday, David Ortiz has four homers over his past seven starts. I was more on the side of “he’s done” rather than “buy-low,” but this is highly encouraging. I’m not really sure how to treat this recent surge, but at the very least, owners should feel more comfortable including him in trade offers. There’s also the chance this portends a nice second half.

Let me get this straight, Donte’ Stallworth was sentenced to 30 days (he’ll only have to serve 24) in prison for killing a pedestrian while driving drunk (.126 BAC) at 7:30 am?! (Just curious, is there any state where the legal limit is NOT .08?) Listen, I get it, the victim wasn’t in a crosswalk, Stallworth immediately called for help and stayed at the scene, he has zero history of trouble in this area, will also have two years of house arrest, driver’s license suspended for lifetime, 1,000 hours of community service and paid off the victim’s family, but this is a bit absurd, no? According to this logic, Plaxico Burress is looking at approximately 3 hours in the clink. And how must Michael Vick feel? 24 days?!?! He killed a human being!

I’m only going to say this one more time, Joe Blanton needs to be owned in all leagues. He has a 5.17 ERA, but I view him as a top-30 starting pitcher.

Jeff Francoeur is so terrible, the Marlins rejected a swap of him for Cody Ross. And that was absolutely the right call too. Remember all those puff pieces about Francoeur’s new approach at the plate during spring training? The writers certainly hope you don’t.

Apropos of nothing, I’ll now leave you with a classic piece of writing by Larry David.

By Dalton Del Don

With 14 homers and six steals, Alfonso Soriano has hardly been a bust, but his on-base percentage is now below .300, and he doesn’t have a multi-hit game since May 19. He’s actually been a pretty terrible player since April ended, and it’s clear he’s not 100 percent physically. Soriano’s current .261 BABIP is a career-low, as is his shockingly bad .128 BA with RISP. There’s not much fantasy owners can do other than ride out the cold streak, and it’s doubtful his price tag will be discounted all that much if trying to acquire Soriano, but at age 33, it’s worth noting his OPS has dropped in three consecutive seasons.

Sean Rodriguez is a popular add with Howie Kendrick sent down, and while he’s certainly not a bad gamble after hitting 21 homers in 205 at-bats this year in Triple-A, expectations should be tempered. Manager Mike Scoscia may be just as likely to play Maicer Izturis at second, and if you combine last year’s stint in the majors with this year’s Triple-A stats, Rodriguez has struck out 123 times over 372 at-bats, so he’s hardly a polished product. I’d much prefer Chris Coghlan.

Dear Manny Parra: I hate your guts. That is all.

If there’s a funnier movie than “The Hangover” in 2009, I’ll be shocked.

Did Joe Torre really have Matt Kemp batting ninth Saturday? Was this just a bad joke? Because he can’t be serious. This is the same Kemp with the second best OPS on the team. Mark Loretta, meanwhile, was hitting seventh, he of the .632 OPS. During Kemp’s 234 at-bats this season, 200 of them have come from sixth or lower in the batting order.

If there’s been a better album so far in 2009 than “It’s Blitz” by the Yeah Yeah Yeahs, I’ve yet to hear it.

Zach Duke has been a pleasant surprise, with a 3.10 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. It’s easy to forget, but he did post a 1.81 ERA and 1.20 WHIP over 84.2 innings as a rookie back in 2005. His command has been strong (2.03 BB/9) and he’s done a terrific job keeping the ball on the ground (1.35 G/F), but a 4.55 K/9 simply won’t cut it, making him an easy sell candidate. I doubt he’d bring much in return, and I’m not saying he’ll be a huge liability from here on out, but I would use Duke as a throw in if trying to make a bigger deal, and with his current .268 BABIP way below his career mark (.330), an ERA more along the lines of 4.0-4.5 should be expected over the rest of the season. Of course, Duke is likely to establish a career-best BABIP in 2009 with the Pirates fielding a fantastic defense, but his strand rate is also artificially high, so he’s due for a pretty severe correction if he doesn’t start missing more bats.

While what he’s doing as a 20-year-old is highly impressive, a similar profile as Duke could be written for Rick Porcello, although his groundball rate is more extreme (2.22 G/F). However, while Porcello has been lucky with his hit rate (.263), he’s been unlucky with flyballs turning into homers (17.4% F/HR), so his xFIP of 4.29 suggests his correction in ERA won’t necessarily be drastic, especially since he has room for improvement at his age. It’s disappointing to see such a low K rate (5.03 K/BB) from a pitcher with his stuff, but that dates back to his minor league days as well, and that kind of groundball rate is special.

Grammar Police: In this week’s edition, we’ll highlight the misuse of “I could care less,” when actually meant as “I could NOT care less.” You see, by saying you could care less, you are in fact stating there is a level of care there, since you could have less and all.

I was on Fantasy Focus over at Blog Talk Radio on Friday. I enter for the second half of the hour.

By Dalton Del Don

I really don’t know what to make of Ben Zobrist, but it’s impossible to ignore what he’s done so far in 2009. While uncommon, it’s not entirely unique for a 28-year-old to burst onto the scene like this, and he more than held his own in the big leagues during 198 at-bats last season. Zobrist was never considered a top prospect, but he did post a .887 OPS throughout his career in the minors, always exhibiting terrific plate discipline. His power surge will no doubt decline (only two players finished with a higher HR/F rate last season than Zobrist’s current 23.5% mark), but his 30:31 K:BB ratio shows he’s for real, and he can somewhat negate the inevitable drop in power by continuing to steals bases. Between Zobrist and Jason Bartlett, Tampa Bay has two of baseball’s biggest surprises playing in its infield.

It’s no secret Javier Vazquez has always been one of the most frustrating pitchers, with his strong peripherals rarely matching a seemingly disappointing ERA. Call him the anti-Tom Glavine. While it fundamentally makes sense for a pitcher to struggle out of the stretch compared to the windup, Vazquez takes it to extremes, as his BAA goes from .246 with the bases empty to .277 with runners on throughout his career. Moreover, his K/9 falls from 8.8 to 7.0, and his BB/9 jumps from 2.1 to 2.8. That said, he’s been unbelievably durable, averaging a remarkable 216.1 innings over the previous nine seasons entering 2009. The move out of homer-prone U.S. Cellular Field has obviously helped, as has the switch to the easier league. After another flat-out dominant performance Thursday – eight innings, two baserunners, 12:0 K:BB ratio – it’s past time to consider Vazquez among the 10 best fantasy starters. Although he entered Thursday with easily the best xFIP (2.57) in baseball even before his gem, it’s safe to assume based on his past a sub 3.50 ERA may not be forthcoming, but a fantastic WHIP and 250 strikeouts should be expected. His current 11.2 K/9 mark is the best among all starters in baseball.

The only real significance I see regarding the Red Sox winning the first seven games against the Yankees this season is the shift in the standings. I wouldn’t read much, if anything, into the head-to-head discrepancy so far.

Chris Coghlan has hit just .230 since getting called up by Florida, but he’s someone who should still be owned in deep leagues. He’s picked it up since June started (.290/.371/.419), and with a 19:19 K:BB ratio, he’s hardly been overmatched. Remember, he had a .970 OPS with nine steals in 25 Triple-A games before getting called up earlier this season and is a legit prospect. With Cameron Maybin hardly impressing in Triple-A (.733 OPS), Dan Uggla a strong trade candidate and Emilio Bonifacio being terrible, Coghlan should have plenty of job security, making him a fixture atop Florida’s lineup. Since he’s also eligible at 2B in most formats, he’s a sneaky MI option.

More proof not to project wins based on team context – after finishing in the bottom three in run support each of the past two years, Matt Cain has gotten 6.14 runs per start in 2009, which is the sixth-best in the National League. This despite the fact the Giants have scored the fewest runs in the NL. Speaking of which, San Francisco has drawn a whopping three walks from its cleanup hitters in 2009 – the second lowest is Seattle with 14 base on balls.

With three multi-hit games in a row, maybe Rick Ankiel is finally coming out of his slump. It would be nice if he were actually healthy for once, as a sports hernia contributed to him batting .169 over the final two months of 2008, and it’s taken some time for him to fully recover from crashing into the wall earlier this season. Remember, Ankiel has only been a full-time hitter for three years, and he had 20 homers at the All-Star break last year. He strikes out too often to ever hit better than .270, but there remains a lot of power potential. Hitting directly in front of (or behind) Albert Pujols should pay dividends as well.

Despite hitting just three homers over his first 81 at-bats and batting .200 at the end of April, Mark Teixeira is on pace to finish the season with 52 homers, 115 runs scored and 143 RBI. It’s safe to say he’s been hot since May started.

I’m tired of writers speaking negatively about Stephen Strasburg simply because no other No. 1 pick has succeeded much as a starter. Michael Wilbon is hardly the only one taking this stance, but some of his arguments are especially outrageous: Strasburg will only play every fifth day, and he isn’t any different from any of the other 13 pitchers selected with the No. 1 overall pick in the draft since 1973. Say what now? This isn’t Kris Benson, Ben McDonald or Tim Belcher, folks. Strasburg just posted a 195:19 K:BB ratio over 109 innings! He regularly works at 97-100 mph with good command and has a curveball that breaks like most pitchers’ sliders do. Oh, and he also possesses a changeup, only he rarely threw it in college because reportedly the hitters there weren’t good enough to be fooled by it. This is a prospect on an entirely different level. And how preposterous is the premise of not taking Strasburg because no No. 1 pick has won a Cy Young? So if no third baseman drafted 12th has ever made an All-Star game, should they all be scratched off the list at that draft slot every year? And whom are you going to take otherwise in a relatively weak class anyway? Dave Cameron makes an intelligent argument for Dustin Ackley here, but come on, Strasburg has the chance to be a true difference maker. Listen, I understand throwing a baseball is an unnatural act, and position players are far more likely to stay healthy, but this is a risk that simply must be taken. And while I don’t necessarily agree with players getting paid so much before proving anything, giving Strasburg $50 million is hardly more egregious than Mark Sanchez getting a similar contract.

Speaking of the draft, what terrible coverage by the MLB network. Having it televised is obviously a step in the right direction, but watching a catatonic Bud Selig announce the picks was laughable. And it was amazing how the panel loved every single pick, no matter how big of a reach it was. I especially liked when Harold Reynolds explained what “signability” meant to the uninformed audience.

I’ve been known to give Brian Sabean a hard time every now and then, but I must applaud the Giants’ recent draft picks, from Tim Lincecum to Madison Bumgarner, Tim Alderson and Buster Posey. The team went from having one of the worst farm systems in baseball to quite possibly the best, at least at the top. And the Zack Wheeler selection sure looks like another quality arm, although the kid should politely decline all future interviews: “Umm, ya San Francisco is beautiful. Although actually I’ve never been there. I think Barry Bonds used to play there.”

Fun facts: Jimmy Rollins “leads” baseball with 201 outs made…Nick Johnson has the best LD% (29.0)…Chris Young is the only hitter in baseball with more than 20% of his flyballs remaining in the infield, and it’s at a staggering 27.4%…Brad Hawpe is hitting a crazy high, and MLB-leading, .460 with RISP…Javier Vazquez has gotten the third best run support (6.37) in the National League, has a 3.31 ERA and yet, 53 pitchers have more wins than his four…Clayton Kershaw averages the most pitches per plate appearance (4.8) by a wide margin…Johan Santana has the highest strand rate (.861) in the league.

By Dalton Del Don

David Wright is having quite an interesting season. He has just three home runs, putting him on pace for nine for the year, and his .492 slugging percentage is easily a career-low. Just 5.6% of his flyballs have gone over the fence, and when you compare that to 16.9% in 2007 and 17.4% in 2008, it’s clear he’s been rather unlucky there. However, Wright has hit a whopping .357 with RISP, so his RBI numbers can actually be considered fortunate. And despite a 63% success rate, he’s already swiped 14 bags, offsetting the lack of long balls. He’s also striking out at an alarming rate (.73 contact rate career-worst by a wide margin), and his .457 BABIP easily leads baseball. So while his HR totals will no doubt jump up, and his activity on the base paths has been a nice surprise, Wright has been pretty lucky so far in 2009.

Daisuke Matsuzaka is off to a different start this season compared to last year, when he posted a 2.90 ERA despite a 1.6:1 K:BB ratio. In 2009, he has a 7.33 ERA with a 2.2:1 K:BB ratio. His sample size is still quite small, obviously, but with such poor command, there’s always been a worry of what would happen if he became more hittable (.267 BABIP last season). His K rate remains strong, so exercise patience, but don’t be surprised if 2008 goes down as his career-year.

With a three-run homer Sunday, Alexei Ramirez’s price tag is climbing, and the window to buy-low is closing. He entered Sunday with a .607 OPS and as one of the bigger fantasy disappointments in 2009, but his walk rate is up, and his strikeouts are down. Moreover, he’s made drastic improvements as a base stealer, going 9-for-11 after being caught on nine of his 22 attempts in 2008. Ramirez has just a .264 BABIP, and despite playing in one of the most homer-friendly home parks in baseball, just 4.8% of his flyballs have gone yard. He’ll never be a big OBP guy, but he’s dramatically improved his defense, and this is a middle infielder who hit 14 homers with 48 RBI over just 249 at-bats after the break last season. Ramirez could be a major difference maker from here on out.

I’m seeing FIP referenced more and more, and that’s a good thing, as it’s certainly a better stat than ERA. However, xFIP is much, much better, as it normalizes the home run component.

I wouldn’t be too down on Tommy Hanson’s debut, as he was perfect through three innings and finished with a 1.17 WHIP. Three homers will hurt any end line, and Ryan Braun deserves a lot of credit. With a 5:1 K:BB ratio, Hanson more than held his own, and while inconsistency comes with all rookie hurlers, future success is imminent.

Over his last five games, Ian Stewart is batting .545 with four home runs, nine runs scored and 12 RBI. He strikes out too often, and his BA still sits at .231, but that’s accompanied by an .861 OPS, and Stewart has hit one HR per 12.2 at-bats. Even better, he’s posted a .990 OPS on the road, with just a .120/.279/.380 line at  home, so there’s plenty of upside once he starts taking advantage of Coors Field. Most importantly, with Garret Atkins forgetting how to hit and a new manager in town, it looks like Stewart is going to be a regular, and since he’s 2B eligible in most leagues, he’s extremely valuable.

By Dalton Del Don

Joe Blanton currently has a 5.86 ERA, a 1.51 WHIP and pitches in a hitter’s park. What does this mean? There’s a worthy add likely available on your waiver wire, at least for those in deeper leagues. Blanton never lived up to Oakland’s expectations, and although his strikeout rate increased after joining the Phillies last season, he didn’t improve his performance like most pitchers do when leaving the AL for the Senior Circuit. And while it appears Blanton has been even worse in 2009, he’s been rather unlucky, and the huge jump in K rate (8.18 K/9) makes him interesting moving forward. His .338 BABIP is the sixth highest in the NL and 39 points higher than his career mark. Moreover, his strand rate (.649) is the fifth lowest in the National League, and his 16% HR/F ratio is also extreme, which helps explain his solid 4.07 xFIP. With a 20:4 K:BB ratio over his past three starts, Blanton qualifies as someone to watch, although with interleague play coming up and the AL East on Philadelphia’s schedule, the time to pounce may not be until July.

I’ll be the first to admit I never saw this coming from Miguel Tejada, who leads the National League with a .358 batting average. The power he showed during his prime isn’t coming back at his age (?), and he’s probably a sell-high candidate, but Tejada has certainly made it clear he’s hardly done as a useful player. His contact rate (.93) is currently at a career-high.

While Chris Davis has failed to live up to the massive preseason hype, Nelson Cruz has actually surpassed it so far. Batting predominantly fifth or sixth in one of the better lineups in baseball, Cruz is on pace to finish the season with 49 homers, 99 runs scored, 125 RBI and 28 steals, which would make him an easy top-three fantasy asset. Of course, projecting like that rarely works, and all those strikeouts could lead to a lowered BA, but it’s clear the Quadruple-A tag no longer applies. In fact, his .768 OPS against left-handers suggests he has potential to be even better from here on out.

I have no clue what to make of Howie Kendrick, who has shown more power and SB ability this year than ever before, yet his main strength, batting average, sits at an ugly .227. His .262 BABIP is nearly a full 100 points lower than his career mark (.360), but his plate discipline, or lack thereof (196:36 K:BB ratio over his big league career), never fit with such high averages. Since joining the Angels, Kendrick had always performed pretty well, but it was injuries that constantly held him back, so it’s somewhat ironic to see him finally stay healthy, yet post a disappointing .617 OPS. I still believe in his talent and wouldn’t mind buying low, but he’s also a candidate to spend some time in the minors, and a hamstring pull could always be right around the corner as well.

Currently, all three non-New York AL East teams play in home parks that rank as more pitcher-friendly compared to last season, according to ESPN’s Park Factors. Of course, it’s just two months worth of data, but don’t be surprised if they stand that way at the end of the 2009 season, and the reason behind it is simple – the new Yankee Stadium. Fenway isn’t any less hitter-friendly than usual, but when a new stadium is introduced – and in this case, one that is playing like the most homer-prone venue ever – it affects the numbers for teams who play there on the road most frequently. Just something to consider when evaluating park effects.

I liked what the Braves did with the Nate McLouth trade. Sure, he’s no Gold Glove center fielder like voters would have you believe, but he’ll be a fine defender as a corner once Jordan Schaefer is recalled. While McLouth may not be a star (career .801 OPS), he’s a massive upgrade for the Braves’ outfield, which is easily the team’s biggest weakness. McLouth is a fantastic base stealer (93% career success rate), is 27 years old, so he’s entering his prime and more seasons like 2008 could be in store, and he’s also affordable. With the NL East far weaker than expected, and Tommy Hanson getting called up (finally!), Atlanta might as well go for it. As for the fantasy fallout, the big winner is Andrew McCutchen. He probably won’t be a huge help in mixed leagues right away unless you’re desperate for steals, and I’d assume he’s long gone in all NL-formats, but the trade makes more sense for Pittsburgh considering McCutchen’s presence. It’s just too bad they couldn’t get a true blue chip prospect in return.

Interesting decision by the Yankees to move Phil Hughes to the bullpen. On one hand, Chien-Ming Wang has been quite effective since joining New York in 2005, and he impressed over his last two relief appearances. His repertoire also works better as a starter, whereas Hughes’ power arm could easily translate as a setup guy. Still, Wang’s poor outing Thursday complicates matters, and if Brian Bruney can come back strong, it’s unlikely Hughes’ stint as a reliever lasts long, and he’ll be back starting soon enough, either in New York or Triple-A. With a 21:3 K:BB ratio over his previous three starts, Hughes still looks like a potential No. 2 starter. As for Joba Chamberlain, aside from the obvious reasons he should remain in the rotation, GM Brian Cashman offered some interesting additional thoughts on the matter this week, stating that since Chamberlain’s injury last season, his velocity typically doesn’t pick up until the 35-40 pitch range, essentially ruling out any chance whatsoever of Chamberlain moving back to the pen.

I recently offered Jair Jurrjens, Trevor Hoffman and LaTroy Hawkins for Jon Lester, and while I can understand why it was rejected, his reply “I would be buying high on Jurrjens and selling low on Lester” got me thinking. Even if that were true, which I agree it is, does that automatically mean it’s a bad trade still? Jurrjens has surely been lucky - .270 BABIP, 5.1% HR/F ratio – and his current 40:23 K:BB ratio hardly matches his 2.59 ERA. However, is it possible he was really lucky in April, which can’t be taken away at this point, and his improvement in May (2.7:1 K:BB ratio with a strong G/F rate) suggests an inevitable implosion may not necessarily be forthcoming? I actually do think it’s time to sell Jurrjens, but that has more to do with his upcoming schedule – ChC, Pit, @Bal, @Bos, Bos. While his ERA may never again look so pretty, this is a good pitcher not skating by purely on luck.

Sticking with the buy-low, sell-high problem witnessed in many fantasy leagues these days, maybe a better strategy in some cases is to target sell-high guys, such as Carl Crawford. After yet another stolen base Thursday, he’s on pace to finish the season with 95 bags. I doubt many believe he’ll keep that torrid pace, but the thing is, unlike a hitter bashing an inordinate amount of homers, steals are more sustainable, as it’s a skill that has more to do with will than anything else. Sure, his opportunities will drop when his BABIP comes down to earth, and a 94% success rate will be tough to maintain, but there’s no reason why Crawford can’t swipe another 40 from here on out. Back healthy and batting atop the best lineup he’s ever been in, Crawford makes sense to target for another reason – his owner is likely well ahead in the SB category, making him more expendable.

I really hope I’m wrong, but I got the Lakers in six.

By Dalton Del Don

While Mark Buehrle is a perfect guy to be shopping right now, there’s still no denying how well he has pitched this season. Despite playing in a park that ranked as the second easiest venue to homer in last season, the soft-tossing lefty has a 2.71 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. While his strand rate is a bit high, his .282 BABIP isn’t all that below his .293 career mark. Over his last four starts, Buehrle has an 18:1 K:BB ratio, and his 1.63 BB/9 mark is the sixth best in baseball. Is a career-year in store at age 30?

I understand I’m beating a dead horse, and it makes sense for a team in last place to play Dexter Fowler, but Seth Smith’s .890 OPS is the second-best on the Rockies, yet he’s received just one start over the past week. He has more walks (23) than strikeouts (17) and is coming off a season in Triple-A where he posted a .950 OPS. Smith is just 26, so it’s not like he can’t be in the team’s future either, especially if Brad Hawpe is traded. Carlos Gonzalez, who currently has a .341/.425/.631 line, should be a fixture in the outfield soon as well, but I just can’t understand why Ryan Spilborghs is getting so much playing time.

I’m as surprised as anyone, but Carl Pavano must be owned in all but the shallowest of leagues. He currently has a 5.29 ERA and 1.37 WHIP, but that’s about as misleading as it gets. If you remove his first start of the season, the ERA drops to 4.21 and the WHIP down to 1.24. His 3.85:1 K:BB ratio is simply fantastic, among the elite hurlers in the league. With a .341 BABIP, .62 strand rate and an impressive 1.31 G/F ratio, you can expect a big decrease in ERA from here on out. In fact, his xFIP is 4.03 – better than Carlos Zambrano, Edwin Jackson, Derek Lowe and Cliff Lee to name a few. Of course, Pavano remains an extreme injury risk, but he’s looking more like he did in Florida than when in a Yankee uniform this season.

I really don’t get this LeBron James controversy. Sure, I agree he should be criticized for ducking the media after the Game 6 loss, but who cares if he left the court right after the game? You want to talk about etiquette and class? How about Dwight Howard shooting a three-pointer at the buzzer up 13 points? I could link to dozens of articles by writers sitting atop their soapbox proclaiming James some sort of criminal, but call me crazy, I like it better when athletes get mad and care about losing, opposed to Asante Samuel laughing with the opposing team after falling to the Cardinals in the NFC Championship game. This isn’t hockey – players run straight to the locker room all the time after NBA games, and while I guess the end of a series is a different circumstance, I could do without the feigned congratulations.

After hitting 13 homers over 423 at-bats last season, Jason Varitek already has 10 long balls in 138 ABs this year. His batting average remains a liability, but his slugging percentage (.522) is currently a career-high. It’s also 235 points higher than David Ortiz’s, which is flat-out shocking one third of the season through.

The MTV Movie awards are so last decade, I know, but Bruno’s prank on Eminem was priceless.

He’s likely gone in competitive leagues, but Kelvim Escobar isn’t a bad speculative grab right now. He’s been dominant during his rehab outings, even hitting 95 mph on the gun. He may still take some time to get back to form after labrum surgery, but there’s also a decent amount of upside, and Escobar should be back up in Anaheim soon.

Between Dontrelle Willis, Joey Votto and Khalil Greene, what’s up with baseball players and personal issues this season? Clearly, Votto’s problem is in a different class coming off the diamond, as he’s been one of baseball’s best players in 2009.

Chris Liss has been arguing to anyone willing to listen that Joe Mauer has essentially become a top-five fantasy player in two-catcher leagues with his recent power surge. His argument, in summation, is that with his elite prospect status and body type, this outburst suggests a permanent skill growth as opposed to a general hot streak like Ian Kinsler’s outstanding April. It’s an interesting standpoint, and I’m fully on board with Mauer possibly being one of baseball’s five best players. However, I will disagree with Liss on a few things about Mauer’s fantasy value: while a .330 BA is fantastic, especially when you compare it to other catchers, Mauer has averaged 488 at-bats over the past four seasons, which comes with the territory of being a backstop (and someone who takes a bunch of walks), so that’s about on par with hitting .300 over 650 at-bats, give or take. It’s also true, as Liss states, that Mauer was a much better prospect than Kinsler, but the latter counters the real life affects by playing in Arlington and stealing bases. I love Mauer and would have voted him for MVP in 2006 (when Justin Morneau won), but I’d be shocked if he hit 20 homers from here on out.

Grammar Police: Kind of like the Karma Police, only not as catchy, I’m going to start a new weekly feature, where I highlight one common grammar mistake. It may not interest you, but it allows me to vent, which is therapeutic, so bear with me. With the first installment, I’d like to go over the most misused word in the English language, “irony.” For the love of God, this word is NOT synonymous with coincidence, no matter how often it’s used that way. You want to know what’s truly ironic? How none of the scenarios in Alanis Morissette’s “Ironic” have any irony whatsoever.

(on a side note, thanks to everyone who was patient when the site was down last week - with a new host up and running, there shouldn’t be any more issues moving forward. In fact, the site should run faster than ever, so do me a favor and spread the word)

By Dalton Del Don

Chris Carpenter remains a huge injury risk, but it’s clear he’s back to being one of the game’s best pitchers when on the mound. Chances are he eventually gives up a run this season, but Monday’s start against the Brewers was one of the most dominant performances of 2009. Despite the shaky status of his arm, Carpenter is throwing harder than ever, as his current average fastball velocity (92.3 mph) is the highest of his career. Moreover, no NL pitcher has thrown a harder slider (87.8 mph average) this year, with only Justin Verlander (88.9 mph) besting him. Carpenter is filthy, and while not on the DL, he will likely continue to pitch like a top-10, if not top-five, fantasy starter.

While Jason Bay has been a very good, not great, player throughout his career, he’s performed like a superstar in 2009, posting a 1.018 OPS with good plate discipline. He’s hitting just as well on the road as at home, so the terrific start isn’t just a product of Fenway Park. Dating back to 2005, he’s been successful on 51 of his 55 SB attempts, which is a remarkable 93% rate. His defense is pretty terrible, but fantasy owners don’t care, and while he’s playing a bit over his head right now, only an injury will prevent a career-high in RBI, as only one AL batter (Vernon Wells) has come to the plate with more runners on base this season.

Tim Lincecum has seen a dip in velocity this season, and while that’s concerning after Bruce Bochy abused him so badly last year, the results remain strong, so hopefully it’s nothing to worry about long-term. In fact, he’s actually pitched better this season than during last year’s Cy Young campaign, with improved command (2.62 BB/9) and an even greater K rate (11.57 K/9). Lincecum has been unlucky, with the highest BABIP (.367) in the National League. However, he’s also been fortunate, evidenced by his 2.3% HR/F rate. He’s done an excellent job limiting homers throughout his short career, but that number is sure to increase. Still, his xFIP (2.68) is the best in baseball and suggests his ERA should continue to decrease.

It looks like Gary Sheffield isn’t finished, after all. Injuries have opened the door for regular playing time, and he’s rewarded the Mets by slugging three homers with 11 RBI over the past six games. Impressively, he’s also walked (22) more than he’s fanned (15), and with all the health problems in New York, Sheffield could be fixture in the middle of the lineup for quite some time. He obviously remains a liability with his glove, and at age 40, he’s an even greater injury risk than in the past, but it’s clear last season’s struggles had more to do with health than a sign of demise. Hitting behind David Wright and his .446 OBP has its perks as well.

After surrendering seven runs over one inning Monday, you don’t need me to tell you to worry about Ervin Santana. Unfortunately, that performance can’t be thrown out as an isolated incident in an otherwise long season, as Santana’s average fastball velocity has decreased from 94.4 mph in 2008 to 90.7 mph this year, which is significant and a big red flag. It’s unclear how long he’ll be able to pitch with his damaged arm, but at this point, it looks like it will affect Santana’s ability even if he’s able to remain on the mound. It’s not like fantasy owners can try to trade him right now, so benching him is probably the best method. Hope for a solid start against the Mariners on Sunday, and then see if you can get anything in return before the inevitable Tommy John surgery.

After a near perfect game Monday, Clay Buchholz is sporting a 1.30 ERA with 49 strikeouts over 48.1 innings. He also possesses an impressive 1.59 GO/AO ratio. Meanwhile, the Red Sox are reportedly in “no hurry” to trade Brad Penny and may soon have John Smoltz ready to join the rotation. I understand the theory of never having too much pitching, and it’s not like the Red Sox need to make changes sitting in first place, but Buchholz can’t waste away in the minors for much longer, and trade suitors should be lining up if a deal is the only way of getting him into a major league rotation. With David Ortiz’s performance, Boston could certainly use one more potent bat as well.

Remember all the puff pieces in spring training about Jeff Francoeur’s new approach at the plate? Those authors sure hope you don’t, because he’s looked worse than ever in 2009, sporting a .629 OPS. His name has recently been brought up in trade rumors, but it’s doubtful the Braves could get much in return with his trajectory going in the wrong direction. Francoeur has a 17:1 K:BB ratio during May, and his power has all but disappeared. The Braves’ outfield is holding back an otherwise good team.

I really like Wandy Rodriguez, but few pitchers have been more fortunate so far. For one, his miniscule 1.5% HR/F rate is the lowest in the NL, so surely he’ll start giving up more homers. Also, a retroactive scoring change made five runs unearned during his last start Monday, which was huge. Still, any pitcher with a 1.71 ERA has likely been “lucky” one way or the other, and I wouldn’t necessarily be shopping the talented lefty, as his breakout looks legitimate, especially since it appears he’s finally solved his troubles on the road.

I really don’t know what to make of B.J. Upton, who continues to disappoint in the power department. After hitting 24 homers as a 22-year-old over 474 at-bats in 2007, he hit just nine long balls last season. Still, he followed that up by going yard seven times in just 66 at-bats in the postseason, and a shoulder injury could explain the regular season output. He’s obviously been slow to recover from offseason surgery, and Upton still possesses about as much fantasy upside as anyone in the game, but a .283 slugging percentage is unacceptable. He’s helped offset the lack of power by stealing 14 bases, and it’s encouraging his success rate has climbed, and his current BABIP (.270) is nearly 100 points below his career mark (.359), so his BA is bound to improve soon enough. Still, is he a 10-homer guy or a 30-homer one?

Dusty Baker is at it again, as he brought back Aaron Harang to pitch the fifth inning Monday after a lengthy 123-minute rain delay. The decision is especially curious after a four-inning relief appearance, followed by a start on three days’ rest, essentially ruined his 2008 season. Hope Monday’s “win” was worth it.

Mike Jacobs has always had pretty extreme splits, but it’s gotten ridiculous this year. He has a .576 OPS versus southpaws and a .959 OPS against right-handers – nearly a 400-point difference. This makes Jacobs’ fantasy value entirely dependent on format, as he’s basically a negative in mixed weekly leagues, whereas he’s got plenty of value in daily ones.

Over his last two starts, Max Scherzer has posted a 20:2 K:BB ratio over 13.0 innings, revealing his high ceiling. He’s still too inefficient to pitch deep into games and remains an injury risk, but not many pitchers can flash that strikeout rate while inducing so many groundballs (1.31 G/F), which is the type of combo that leads to staff aces. More wins are sure to follow.

Quietly, Andruw Jones has posted a .992 OPS this season, with more walks (18) than strikeouts (16). It’s a small sample size with 73 at-bats, and his production has been solely Arlington aided (1.171 OPS at home, .728 on the road). Still, after hitting .205 over the past two seasons, it’s surprising to see some life back in his bat. He’s not all that valuable in fantasy circles as a part-time player, but there isn’t any good reason he shouldn’t start getting more action at Marlon Byrd’s expense.

Alexei Ramirez has really taken to batting second, and he’s raised his OPS more than 100 points over the past 10 games. His overall numbers still look ugly, but the opportunity to buy-low has probably passed, and there are signs of big things to come. After posting a 61:18 K:BB ratio last season, he’s at 18:12 this year in 330 fewer at-bats. Moreover, after getting caught on nine of his 22 stolen base attempts in 2008, he’s been successful on nine of his 10 tries this year. His raw power should resurface soon, and U.S. Cellular Field ranked as the second-best home run venue according to Park Factors last season.

James Loney is on pace to finish the year with 122 RBI. With a .380 slugging percentage…Ichiro Suzuki has more intentional base on balls (five) than regular walks (three)…Nick Johnson leads baseball in line-drive percentage (31.2), while Derrek Lee ranks dead last (11.7%)…Brad Hawpe leads the majors with a .474 batting average with RISP, while Troy Tulowitzki brings up the rear at .079…Bengie Molina has swung at an unfathomable 49.5% of pitches outside the strike zone in 2009, easily the most in baseball. Pablo Sandoval is second (46.6%), so the Giants must really be preaching patience at the plate this year…For those of you in NL-only leagues, take a look at Padres middle reliever Edward “the last of the Mujicans.” Over his last 5.0 innings, he has an 11:1 K:BB ratio, and he’s impressed all season. It seems the Padres always unearth a dominant middle relief performance from an unknown every year, and it looks like Mujica is that guy in 2009.

By Dalton Del Don

Some pitchers, like Josh Johnson, come back stronger after Tommy John surgery, even seeing an increase in velocity. Sadly, Francisco Liriano is not one of these pitchers. In 2006, he was baseball’s best starter when on the mound, striking out 144 batters over 121 innings with a 2.16 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. Always viewed as an injury risk, an arm injury followed, eventually leading to the surgery. Last year’s disappointing season could be forgiven, as poor command is a common theme among pitchers returning from Tommy John, and he finished strong, posting a 60:19 K:BB ratio with a 2.74 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP over the final 65.2 innings. Still, an extremely easy schedule contributed, as seven of his final 10 starts came against the Royals, Athletics and Mariners, who ranked as the three lowest scoring teams in the American League. So far in 2009, the optimism has vanished, as Liriano currently sports a 5.75 ERA and 1.33 WHIP.  His 7.30 K/9 IP mark isn’t bad, but it’s a far cry from his prime, and more is expected now that he’s 2.5 years removed from surgery. The radar gun has been even more telling than the results, as he’s averaged 9.14 mph with his fastball. In 2006, that number was at 94.7, so that’s a significant decrease. The same goes for his slider, which has dropped from 87.7 in 2006 to 85.5 this season. He’s also throwing that pitch far less frequently (37.6% down to 26.1%) due to its stress on his arm. Liriano’s numbers will improve, and he’ll no doubt retain plenty of fantasy value, but it’s too bad the injury affected his long-term prognosis so much, as another Cy Young type performance looks unlikely.

It’s safe to say the Nationals are pleased with the Adam Dunn signing so far. The Big Donkey has already knocked out 11 homers while posting a 1.082 OPS despite switching to a park far less hitter-friendly. Of course, there’s zero chance his current .310 batting average doesn’t sharply decline, and he’s still an absolute butcher with the glove, but it’s doubtful there’s a player with a career .905 OPS that gets less respect. Remember, Dunn was largely ignored on the free agent market. In fact, GM Brian Sabean thought it’d be a better idea to give Edgar Renteria a two-year, $18 million deal than sign Dunn for 2/$20 million. After all, it’s not like the Giants need a first baseman or anything (Dunn’s poor range would be less of a problem there anyway). Or a power hitter who gets on base.

Over his last four starts, Clay Buchholz has a 32:4 K:BB ratio over 26.1 innings with a 0.34 ERA. This after he was highly impressive in spring training. It’s completely illogical for a prospect this good to be rotting in the minors, while mediocrity like Brad Penny has a 16:15 K:BB ratio and a 6.90 ERA over 30 innings. Penny hasn’t been even average since 2006, and that was while pitching in the NL West. It’s not like Justin Masterson’s ceiling even approaches Buchholz’s either. Still, Time Wakefield has been solid, Daisuke Matsuzaka is about to return and eventually John Smoltz should enter the picture, so maybe a trade would be best for Buchholz.

As recently as April 21, Justin Upton had a line of .167/.250/.222. He now currently sports a .974 OPS that is more than 100 points higher than any teammate. He still strikes out too frequently, but he has a strong walk rate and few 21 year olds have ever possessed this kind of raw power. Over his last 163 at-bats, Upton has hit 11 homers, which is unprecedented for someone so young. While his success rate has been spotty, he’s also capable of contributing 20 steals as well. If a keeper-league held a draft today, Upton would be worth a top-five pick.

Randy Johnson currently has a 5.89 ERA and 1.42 WHIP, and at age 45, it would be easy to write him off. Still, a strong K rate (9.6 K/9 IP) suggests you shouldn’t, and horrible luck has greatly contributed to the slow start. In fact, he’s flashing a whopping 34.7% HR/F rate, which is almost 10 percent higher than the second highest mark (Roy Oswalt, 25.2 %). Of course, the Big Unit is hardly in his prime, and a decrease in fastball velocity could have something to do with his gopheritis. But to put his bad luck into perspective, the pitcher with the highest HR/F mark in all of baseball last year John Lannan at 17.5%, which is about half Johnson’s current rate, so it’s safe to expect a major correction soon. His slider still has bite and remains a terrific pitch, and he’s actually throwing it harder (85 mph) than he has since 2002 so far this season. Johnson, who has a ludicrous home/road split right now (32:3 K:BB ratio at AT&T Park versus a 7:13 K:BB ratio on the road), isn’t a bad buy-low target.

I’m beginning to sense Evan Longoria is pretty good at baseball. The sophomore had 11 long balls with a 1.114 OPS and leads the majors in total bases (95) and extra-base hits (27),  while placing second in Isolated Power (.368). He also has the second best UZR/150 (30.6) among all third baseman after leading in that category last season (20.1), meaning he’s likely the best defensive player at the hot corner in the league. His 31:13 K:BB ratio suggests he’s not quite in Albert Pujols territory just yet, but few players have impressed as much before reaching 600 career at-bats. Factoring in his age (23), Longoria would likely be the No. 1 overall pick if starting a franchise from scratch.

With 44 strikeouts over his last 29.1 innings, it’s safe to say Justin Verlander is back. The opportunity to buy-low is long gone, and any lucky owner should hardly be looking to sell even with the renewed value. Verlander looked like a Cy Young candidate entering last season, but instead delivered a disappointing campaign with a decreased K rate and inflated walk rate. In 2008, his average fastball velocity was down to 93.6 mph, but it’s up to 95.4 mph this season, which has obviously made a big difference. He can comfortably be considered a top-five fantasy starter from here on out.

Thursday’s golden sombrero notwithstanding, Jayson Werth has been a monster this month, batting .387 with four home runs, 10 runs scored, 10 RBI and five steals over the past 10 games. While continuing to mash lefties, Werth has improved against right-handers this season, posting a .917 OPS. Batting in a loaded lineup full of southpaws in a terrific hitter’s park, only an injury can prevent further success. Werth has a remarkable 89.5% success rate in stolen base attempts throughout his career, and he easily led all outfielders last season with a 35.3 UZR/150 rating and would have finished first by an even wider margin had he qualified in 2007, so he’s a fantastic defender. Entering Thursday, he also led the league in pitches per plate appearance with 4.58. Werth signed a two-year, $10 million contract during the offseason. Meanwhile, Aaron Rowand is in the second season of his five-year, $60 million deal.

One of the bigger surprises so far has to be Johnny Damon’s nine home runs. He’s only topped 20 long balls twice during his 15-year career, and he’s currently slugging 135 points higher than his previous high, set in 2000 with Kansas City. Damon’s power is sure to normalize, and it’s worth noting he hasn’t played in more than 150 games in a season since 2002, but he deserves credit for playing at such a high level at this stage of his career. I know it’s considered insane to give any labels or form any conclusions with the new Yankee Stadium, but Damon has hit six of his nine homers there over just 53 at-bats, and left-handed hitters figure to benefit the most if the early results are any indication.

After getting pounded once again Wednesday, Ricky Nolasco sits with a 7.78 ERA and 1.68 WHIP. His K rate remains strong, but he is walking more batters than last season, and the sluggish start is especially worrisome considering the hurler came somewhat out of nowhere in 2008, which included a huge increase in workload. Still, he was one of the most impressive pitchers in baseball last year, and he’s been one of the most unluckiest ones so far in 2009. His .387 BABIP is the third highest mark in the league, while his .531 strand rate ranks dead last. His FIP is 4.14, giving him the biggest discrepancy between that and his ERA (-3.64) by nearly a full run in all of baseball. Although his slider has seen a small drop in velocity, his fastball is exactly the same as last season, so he’s an excellent buy-low target. And now is the time to make some offers, as Nolasco’s next scheduled start comes at home against the Diamondbacks, who have scored the fewest runs in MLB.

Speaking of the Marlins, Chris Coghlan needs to be owned in all but the shallowest fantasy leagues. He was hitting .344 with a 10:12 K:BB ratio and was successful on nine of his 10 SB attempts over 96 at-bats in Triple-A before getting called up. While his three homers don’t jump off the page, he also had nine doubles, so he’s one of the league’s better prospects. With Cameron Maybin struggling mightily and getting sent down, it looks like Florida is going to give him a legit opportunity, something that’s unclear with other recent additions like Nolan Reimold, Gerardo Parra and Mat Gamel (although each of those prospects have plenty of upside as well). And even with the likelihood of Maybin’s eventual return, it’s not like Cody Ross is some long-term answer, and third base could also open up with Emilio Bonifacio showing his true colors, so Coghlan could become a fixture with a strong audition, and he’s even batting second in the early going. Frustratingly, I lost him by one measly dollar in NL LABR (I bid $28). That’s going to haunt me for the rest of the season.

By Dalton Del Don

Posting a 1.239 OPS in Triple-A, Nolan Reimold was making a case to be called up even before Felix Pie left Tuesday’s game with a stomach issue. Pie has done nothing but continue to disappoint this season, batting .180 while looking overmatched at the plate. In fact, he has just two extra-base hits over 61 at-bats. No 24-year-old should be written off, but his major league sample size is growing. While Pie is fantastic defensively, that type of futility with the bat won’t cut it. Meanwhile, Reimold has nine homers and five steals over 106 at-bats. He needs to be added in deeper formats.

I feel bad for Casey Blake’s ribs the next time he faces the Giants. I’ll feel even worse for him if he tries to retaliate.

After a no-hitter with a 17:2 K:BB ratio Friday, Stephen Strasburg now sports an 11-0 record with a 1.24 ERA. He hit 101 mph on the gun while consistently working at 99 mph. Over 87.1 innings this season, he has an acceptable 164:17 K:BB ratio. I’m seriously considering stashing him right now even in redraft leagues. My only hesitance is the fact Washington isn’t a contending team, or then it would be a no-brainer.

Hopefully Frank Francisco’s recent bout with biceps tendinitis isn’t serious, because he was quietly becoming one of baseball’s best relievers, having yet to allow a run this season. He posted a crazy 11.8 K/9 IP mark last year and had fanned 13 batters over 14.2 innings so far in 2009, leading the AL with nine saves…Speaking of closers, Joakim Soria’s bum shoulder reveals once again how few can repeat yearly in such dominant fashion. Really, there’s Mariano Rivera, Joe Nathan, Jonathan Papelbon and Francisco Rodriguez. It’s a crapshoot after that. Relievers are fickle.

I’m pretty pumped for “The Hangover.” Mainly because Zach Galifianakis is the best comedian alive.

I liked Aaron Hill as a sleeper entering the year, but in no way did I foresee this type of performance. How about a .357 BA with nine homers and 30 RBI over just 35 games? It’s safe to say he’s not quite this good, but there’s also no compelling reason to go selling hard…The Blue Jays as a team have really surprised, but they are clearly playing over their heads. It’s a nice story - they lead major league baseball with 204 runs scored, and I’d love to see the Yankees and Red Sox get competition along with the Rays, but it should be noted Toronto has played just four of its 35 games against division foes. For comparison’s sake, the Rays have already faced the AL East 21 times. Roy Halladay might be one of the 10 most valuable players in baseball, but expect the Blue Jays to come crashing back down to earth soon enough.