RotoScoop.com

By Dalton Del Don

My apologies for the lack of content recently, but I’m making it up to you with an extra long “Scoop” right here, right now. A few quick programming notes beforehand: If you haven’t already, check out my latest podcast. These are all available to download through iTunes, by the way. Also, this Monday I’ll be co-hosting on XM #147/Sirius #211 from 8-11 am PST. Tune in if you get the chance.

Rickie Weeks has sunk plenty of fantasy teams over the years, both with horrible batting averages and being extremely injury prone. Entering 2010, most high hopes had ended, although he was playing quite well last year before yet another injury ended his season prematurely. Weeks strikes out a ton, yet he also walks quite a bit, giving him a solid OBP. In fact, if you prorate Weeks’ runs scored over 162 games, he’s averaged 111 per season over his career, which is remarkable. He’s stolen just eight bases over his past 501 at-bats (while getting caught five times despite having a career SB rate of 85% beforehand), which obviously hurts his fantasy value. Still, Weeks is on pace to finish this year with 28 homers, 104 runs scored and 97 RBI – as a middle infielder who should also contribute around 10 steals, that sure looks like a top-15 type fantasy player. Of course, “on pace” is frowned upon among the sabermetric community, but Weeks has always had this talent, it just comes down to health, as the 27-year-old has never played in 130 games in any season of his career. He remains an enigma.

During his last start in San Francisco, Tim Lincecum allowed a home run on a changeup for the first time in his career while pitching at home.

Manny Parra is another interesting case in Milwaukee. Parra is a left-hander who has averaged 92.9 mph with his fastball and also recorded a 9.17 K/9 ratio this season. He also produces a bunch of groundballs and has somehow posted a .380 BABIP this season, which is actually a theme throughout his career, as his career BABIP is now .354 over 402 innings. Still, I’ve become quite wary, as Parra’s control remains terrible (4.26 BB/9), and while his hit rate is likely to drop at some point, with a lack of command and a high LD% throughout his career, it’s safe to say Parra is a pretty big gamble, especially when it comes to WHIP (ZiPS projects a .362 BABIP over the rest of the season, for what it’s worth). My advice? Parra can look fantastic at times and has underlying stats that suggest he’s due for some major good luck, which is enticing, but when he gets hit hard and negates the double-digit strikeout, standout outings, don’t be shocked, that’s just Manny being Manny. Also, some major BABIP correction isn’t necessarily in store considering the Brewers’ team UZR is -25.8 (the fifth-worst in baseball).

You’ve probably seen this, but if not, it’s a pretty great demonstration of just how amazing Mariano Rivera truly is.

Yunel Escobar currently sports a 31:36 K:BB ratio and has already tied his career-high with five steals this season. He’s also been a huge bust, batting .237 and still searching for his first home run of the year. Escobar is playing by far the best defense of his career, and he’s hit a similar amount of fly balls this season compared to last, and since 10.1% of those went over the fence in 2009, it stands to reason he’s been quite unlucky when it comes to long balls in 2010. He looks like a true buy-low target.

Robinson Cano entered 2010 with 64 homers against right-handers and 23 against southpaws. Only Albert Pujols (11) has more home runs than Cano (10) versus lefties this season.

Jason Bartlett was an obvious guy to avoid at fantasy drafts this year, but come on, a .224/.309/.325 line? That’s almost a 250 point OPS drop compared to last season. His BB% has actually been better and his K% has actually been lower this year compared to last (although both marginally), but his BABIP is more than 100 points lower (.364 vs. .259). I’ll spare you the details – Bartlett isn’t as good as he was last year, but he’s better than he’s been so far in 2010. Ultimately, that still makes him a worthy MI option in most leagues moving forward.

A three ball walk.

There’s still plenty of time over the second half for the rookies to struggle, but after Matt Wieters has proven just how hard it is to succeed right out of the gate as a catcher, how impressive have Carlos Santana and Buster Posey been? Over his first 84 at-bats, Santana has already hit five homers with 11 doubles while posting a 17:22 K:BB ratio. A switch hitter batting in the middle of Cleveland’s lineup, we could be looking at a fantasy stud for years to come. And to think, all it cost was Casey Blake to pry him from the Dodgers. As for Posey, he entered Friday with a .336/.375/.528 line with four homers and nine RBI over his past four games. He’s also shown a cannon arm behind the plate, a stark contrast from predecessor Bengie Molina. The catcher position will definitely be deeper in fantasy leagues entering 2011.

It’s almost certainly too late, but yes, add Chris Davis.

Tommy Hanson has become a good example of why all ERAs aren’t created equal. He currently sports a 4.13 ERA, but if you take away his final two starts in June (when he gave up 14 earned runs over 7.1 innings), that number falls to 2.73. Of course, those stats DO count, but it’s also worth noting he was pounded for eight runs over 1.2 innings in a start in May as well. Hanson no doubt destroyed the Braves’ win expectancy during those three outings, but I wonder if his other 13 starts in which he allowed two runs or fewer make him more valuable than a routine 4.13 ERA. I’m too lazy, so maybe someone smarter than me can run the numbers and enlighten us. For fantasy owners, it’s been Hanson’s 1.37 WHIP that’s been most disappointing, thanks to continued middling control. However, with a 9.12 K/9 rate and a .345 BABIP, it’s pretty safe to treat Hanson as a top-15 fantasy SP from here on out, although there’s still a question of how he’ll pitch under a full workload for the first time in his career.

When asked why run scoring is down in baseball this season, Tim McCarver recently stated, “The major reason is lack of hitting and great pitching.” You can’t make this stuff up. (h/t The Book).

When Josh Hamilton was on RW’s XM/Sirius show a couple of weeks back, he was asked to name an under the radar pitcher whose stuff is nasty and may be a potential breakout guy down the road. (This is a common question asked by Chris and Jeff – Jimmy Rollins named Ubaldo Jimenez two years ago, and a common answer so far this year has been Jorge De La Rosa). After some deliberation, Hamilton concluded….Brian Moehler! Ignore the career 4.93 K/9 folks, the 39-year-old Moehler is going to put it all together soon, his stuff is dirty. After giving Hamilton a hard time, I’d be remiss not to point out just how good he is at playing baseball. Hamilton entered Friday batting .345 with 22 homers and 64 RBI, and while he admittedly has the benefit of a great hitter’s park and still struggles some versus lefties (and currently has a .382 BABIP), his Z-Swing% is the highest in all of baseball – that is, no other hitter swings at a higher percentage of pitches inside the strike zone, and we are talking about a power hitter here. Only health prevents Hamilton from being a perennial first round fantasy pick.

I’m beginning to think Mel Gibson doesn’t consider females and minorities as equals.

Since returning from the disabled list, Vicente Padilla has recorded a 22:3 K:BB ratio over four starts. For the season, he has a remarkable 5.3:1 K:BB rate while striking out a batter per inning. Of course, he’s also given up at least one home run during all eight of his starts this season, producing a big dichotomy between his ERA (4.72) and WHIP (1.13). Padilla has always been fairly homer prone, but it’s safe to assume his current 16.4 HR/FB% has nowhere to go but down, especially since he plays in a division with three parks that typically suppress long balls, including his home one. He’s throwing both his fastball and slider as hard as ever, and his curveball has averaged an eephus-like 65.7 mph, which is pretty awesome. I have no clue and won’t pretend to explain his huge platoon splits in 2010, as he’s always been extremely vulnerable to southpaws during his career, yet has held lefties to a .145 BAA so far while right-handers have hit .307 against him. The latter has come with a 28:2 K:BB ratio, however, and since he’s going to face more righties moving forward, this at least seems like a good thing. I’m not saying Padilla can keep up this pace, but don’t just disregard him because he’s 33 years old and hasn’t been relevant in fantasy leagues in a long time. He’s no longer pitching in Texas and is now in a much better situation in the N.L. and a park more suited for his ability.

I know my rights! Part one. Part two. Part three. Enjoy.

Carlos Gonzalez is on pace to finish the season with this line: .310-30-100-107-23. He’s only 24 years old and can hit both lefties and righties while having the benefit of Coors Field at his disposal (which continues to play as baseball’s best hitter’s park). Oh, and he’s produced that pace while missing 11 games so far this year. It’s hard not to be bullish on CarGo, and he looks like a top-15 fantasy pick next year, but it’s worth noting just how hard it is to be such a productive hitter while walking as little as he does. His current 4.5 BB% actually ranks 12th worst in all of baseball. And of those dozen, his 24.3 K% is by far the worst; in fact, among the 44 players with the lowest BB% in MLB, only Jonny Gomes (25.3%) and Austin Jackson (28.0%) have worse K rates. Gonzalez absolutely has the talent to improve here, but this is a pretty obvious area of concern.

In closing, a few thoughts about “The Decision.” I really can’t blame LeBron James for leaving the NBA’s worst roster (although as a sports fan with no stakes involved, I probably wish he had stayed. But seriously, what’s the over/under for Cavs wins next year? I guessed around 18-20 without looking it up. And to my surprise, bodog has the number at 33.5. Huh? Ya, I’m going to be hammering that), but choosing Miami sure does feel like the easy way out. But worse than that was how he did it. If only Dan Gilbert told us what he really thought about James leaving. What a bizarre turn of events, as James’ image has taken a legitimate hit, and rightfully so. And while it was unsurprising, shame on ESPN. I hope all members involved Thursday night were given proper kneepads. As for the fallout, as long as health doesn’t get in the way, Miami very well might win the next five titles (the official over/under for this is 2.5). They should be considered prohibitive favorites.

My latest attempt at hosting. I will have a new column up by Thursday night at the latest. That’s a promise.

By Dalton Del Don

Entering May 30, Howie Kendrick had a .253/.285/.342 line with just two home runs on the year. He’s batted .337 with five long balls and 24 RBI over 92 at-bats since then, and he’s now consistently hitting first or second in the Angels’ lineup. He hit .358/.391/.558 after the All-Star break last season, so while it’s taken him longer than hoped, maybe Kendrick is finally going to live up to his potential in 2010. He does so unconventionally (few walks, not a terrific contact rate), but he’s one of the few targets for fantasy teams in need of batting average help, and actually, because of the small amount of base on balls, his contribution to that category is even greater. Kendrick isn’t a huge HR/SB guy, but 15 of each are well within reach, and he’s currently on pace to finish the season with 104 RBI. Kendrick is just outside the top-five fantasy second basemen.

USA! USA! USA! What an awesome match that was Wednesday. All sports have their problems with refereeing, but that would have been incredibly frustrating (and a pretty big knock on the sport that’s been slow to be accepted here) had USA not advanced thanks to not one but two highly questionable disallowed goals. But seriously, coming back from down 0-2 at half last time to scoring in the 91st minute with elimination just seconds away Wednesday – how sick was that?! I’m pretty pumped my old friend from high school scheduled his wedding right during the team’s next match – nice timing buddy.

Josh Johnson has been ridiculously good so far this season, as he hasn’t allowed more than one run in any of his past eight starts. He has a 56:10 K:BB ratio over the last 63.0 innings. Like anyone with a 1.80 ERA, Johnson has received some good luck (.270 BABIP, 4.7 HR/FB%), but since returning from Tommy John surgery in 2008 with increased fastball velocity, his K rate has improved each season while his BB rate has decreased each year. Johnson’s average fastball velocity (94.7 mph) is fourth highest among major league baseball, which is especially impressive when you factor in his strong groundball rate (48.5 GB%). When someone pitches like this over such a long span, there’s no way to view him other than a “sell-high,” but Johnson should also be treated like a top-five fantasy starter over the rest of the season.

Stephen Strasburg leads the Nationals’ starting pitching staff with 41 strikeouts this season. And no, that’s not a Chuck Norris type fact.

The Braves shouldn’t have let Kelly Johnson leave, especially since he’s certainly capable of helping as an outfielder, but there’s little doubt the team made the right decision turning over second base to Martin Prado, who currently has the second most hits in baseball. Prado doesn’t have a ton of power and doesn’t run nearly enough to be a fantasy stud, but he has seven multi-hit games over the past nine contests and is on pace to finish the season with 121 runs scored. Prado’s current .371 BABIP is sure to regress, but his LD% (23.3) is strong, and ZiPS projects him to bat .327 over the rest of the year, so some huge crash doesn’t seem imminent. Prado looks like the N.L. version of Howie Kendrick.

Non-sports link: It’s a little long, but I enjoyed it a pretty good amount.

Don’t look now, but Delmon Young is turning into a serviceable player. Of course, he’s been one of the worst regulars over the past couple of years, so even modest improvement would seem dramatic, but Young’s played better this year. He’s cut last year’s K rate (23.3%) nearly in half this season (12.2%), which is significant. Young still doesn’t project to be a big power guy, as he continues to hit too many groundballs (1.21 GB/FB), and so far, Target Field has played as the third toughest park to homer in during 2010, but he already has more doubles this season compared to last in close to 200 fewer at-bats. Young is still just 24 years old, so it’s safe to assume he’ll only continue to get better.

I try not to overrate the now (and sometimes fail), but I’m sorry, is this epic Wimbledon match the craziest thing in sports ever? I mean seriously? Obviously, there isn’t much significance regarding what round it is and the players involved, but I mean, the fifth set alone qualifies as the longest tennis match in the history of the sport. Of course, it’d be nice to see some return skills, but how many records will be set here that will be nearly impossible to break because of the circumstances? Both are now No. 1 and No. 2 for most aces in a match and by a wide margin (John Isner currently has 98, previous high was 78). It’s 59-59! I struggle to come up with any other possibility in another sport that I’d have a harder time believing when I first heard this score.

Cole Hamels has been considered a disappointment by some, and I guess if you look at his so-so 3.75 ERA and 1.31 WHIP, that’s understandable. However, he’s pitched far better than that suggests. His 8.86 K/9 is Hamels’ best since his rookie season, and while he’s always been susceptible to the long ball, his current GB% is a career high (43.8), and his 16.1 HR/FB% should drop over the rest of the year. The zip on his fastball is back (career-high 91.5 mph), but his new pitch (a cutter) has graded below average. Of some concern is Hamels’ changeup, which has been one of the better pitches in all of baseball in each of his previous four seasons in the league but has been merely average so far in 2010. Still, with the strikeouts way up and continued strong control and homers surrendered likely to go down, Hamels remains a top-15 type fantasy starter.

Stephen Strasburg has such filthy stuff that even umpires keep getting fooled.

Jose Reyes has been on fire lately, and Jimmy Rollins is back in action, but especially after the loss of Troy Tulowitzki, shortstop is one of the thinnest positions right now I can remember in fantasy baseball. There’s a pretty obvious top-five, and then a pupu platter. Seriously, what a dearth of talent. I mean, Juan Uribe has been the National League’s second best shortstop so far this season. Pretty crazy.

Speaking of crazy, Ryan Braun has a 1.011 OPS with 33 RBI on the road this season. He has a .677 OPS with 13 RBI at home.

Although Chris Davis is currently destroying Triple-A pitching, Justin Smoak has had a fine June, and while he strikes out too much, he also knows how to take a walk. Smoak has a .266/.385/.460 line with a 29:24 K:BB ratio against right-handers this season, so he’s holding his own as a 23-year-old getting his first big league experience. Smoak hasn’t taken advantage of a terrific hitter’s home park either, which should only become more pronounced throughout the summer months. Since he’s also a better fielder than Davis, Smoak’s leash shouldn’t be too tight.

I actually kind of liked Maurice Jones-Drew’s Monday Morning Quarterback article while filling in for Peter King.

When asked about calling up Jeremy Hellickson, manager Joe Maddon recently responded, “That’s not been a discussion.” Really? Not even a little bit? I get that Wade Davis was once also a pretty good prospect himself, and he impressed with 36 strikeouts over 36.1 innings last year at the major league level, but that K rate is way down in 2010, and he’s walked 35 batters and given up a whopping 12 homers over 75.1 innings. Both his FIP (5.30) and xFIP (5.09) are worse than his ugly 4.90 ERA. Meanwhile, Hellickson currently has a 2.33 ERA with a 9.1/K and 2.1/BB – his K:BB ratio throughout his minor league career is a stellar 4.93:1. He relies more on command than overpowering stuff, but as a team in a dogfight with two others in its division that are among the top-three in baseball, what are they thinking not even considering making this switch? Even if Maddon is lying and they have discussed the matter, their conclusion seems wrong. And does Davis, he of the 20 career starts, really deserve some sort of seniority favoritism? Yankee and Red Sox fans are praying this arrangement continues.

This is pretty ridiculous and probably NSFW, but I pass it on nonetheless.

One of the biggest draft day bargains this year has easily been Magglio Ordonez, who is currently hitting .328 with a ridiculous 22:31 K:BB ratio. He’s also on pace to finish the season with 21 homers, 99 runs scored and 110 RBI despite missing nine games. It’s pretty unfathomable that a player who is 36 years old and entered August last season with a .685 OPS currently sports the best K%, BB% and LD% of his career. There’s little chance Mags hits much more than 20 homers while still producing more grounders than fly balls, but hitting third in a productive lineup directly in front of Miguel Cabrera, he’s back to being quite the valuable fantasy property. Few will end up being bigger helps in batting average.

I haven’t heard it yet, but this is pretty disconcerting (and hardly surprising). Any opinions if you’ve gave it a listen?

Roger Bernadina hit .335 with 41 stolen bases (while also slugging .490) two years ago as a 24-year-old in Double and Triple-A, and only a broken leg prevented him from getting a chance to be a regular with the Nationals last season. He’s getting that opportunity this year after batting .377/.426/.541 during a brief stint in Triple-A and has recently been hitting toward the top of Washington’s lineup. He’s produced four homers and six steals over just 148 at-bats, making him a sneaky fantasy play. I doubt there is a player with his potential as readily available as he currently is in most leagues, even in deep and competitive ones.

Stephen Strasburg is actually much better at football, basketball, hockey and even soccer, but he decided to pursue a career with the sport he’s most challenged at, with the feeling it’d be most rewarding

This season is turning out to be the year of the rookie, and while Mat Latos lost that eligibility by recording just two more outs than the minimum last season, he’s one of baseball’s best young players without a doubt. Pitching in the N.L. West and Petco Park has its advantages, but Latos is the real deal and only keeps getting better. He recently recorded a 15:2 K:BB ratio over 13.2 innings (while allowing only two runs and nine baserunners) against the Blue Jays and Rays over his last two starts. In April (when he was coming off an arm injury), he posted a 5.8 K/9 ratio. In May, that jumped to 8.1. In June, that’s skyrocketed to 10.6 despite a much tougher schedule. I’m sure the 22-year-old and inked up Latos still has some growing up to do (don’t we all), but by all accounts, he’s really matured and changed from his once abrasive self. Since April ended, Latos has recorded a 1.92 ERA and 0.79 WHIP. In fact, his season WHIP (0.95) is bested only by Cliff Lee (0.90) in all of baseball. Latos will probably tire during the second half of his first major league season, and it’s unclear just how many innings he’ll be allowed to throw in 2010. It’s also safe to expect his .238 BABIP to rise significantly, but for a guy who has a terrific fastball, an even better slider and a plus changeup who also produces a bunch of grounders, Latos is simply one of the most valuable commodities in keeper formats. With the Petco factor, we could be looking at some ridiculously good seasons in the future.

By Dalton Del Don

I haven’t posted a new baseball column in a bit, so I wanted to make sure you saw I wrote about Game 7 of the NBA Finals earlier as well.

There isn’t a bigger Tim Lincecum fan than me, and while I’m hardly panicking, his last seven starts have raised some concerns. His fastball velocity has declined during all four years he’s been in the majors, bottoming out at 91.3 mph this season. It’s remained an effective pitch, but with a changeup that averages 84.1 mph – that’s hardly the discrepancy you’d like to see (ideally a 10 mph difference). But Lincecum currently sports a 10.3 K/9 ratio and just fanned 10 batters during his start Wednesday against the Orioles, so his “stuff” really shouldn’t be questioned. His control, however, is an issue. After walking 20 batters over a four start stretch (that spanned over 23.1 innings) in May, Lincecum had given just three free passes over his last two starts before Wednesday, when he not only issued four walks but also tossed three wild pitches. His last three starts have come against the Pirates, A’s and Orioles – offenses that rank 30th, 24th and 29th in run scoring so far this season, so he’s had the benefit of an easy schedule, yet his control remains shaky. It’s probably nothing, and Lincecum is incredibly tough to hit, especially when it comes to home runs, but this sudden drastic lack of command is a little worrisome and curious.

I already “tweeted” this (are you following me?), but it deserves more than that. Funny stuff.

As a fan, I’m going to stick with the Giants here, although I’ll try to make it quick. I still think the Dodgers and especially the Rockies are better teams, but all of a sudden, San Francisco’s lineup isn’t reprehensible. Not that it’s good, but with a strong pitching staff (Santiago Casilla is the best reliever few know about) and a surprisingly good defense (that still ranks No. 1 in UZR), only an average offense is needed. My personal whipping boy, Brian Sabean, deserves some credit for the Aubrey Huff signing, but the most important addition has been Andres Torres (luck), and I find it funnier to point out this: the Giants’ current best setup features Aaron Rowand (due $60 million), Edgar Renteria (due $18.5 million) and Mark DeRosa (due $12 million) all on their bench right now. That’s $90.5 million for those who don’t like math. One more Giants thought, and then I promise I’ll stop; the last player drafted and developed by the S.F. to appear in an All-Star game with the club was Matt Williams in 1986.

In “Pulp Fiction,” the unknown item inside the coveted briefcase is actually a baby picture of Stephen Strasburg.

Baseball is undeniably unpredictable (Alex Rios went from being a player whom an MLB team gave away his contract in 2009 to someone who has probably been the most valuable fantasy hitter of all in 2010), but in hindsight, Adrian Beltre’s big year so far shouldn’t be considered surprising (and no, I’m not referring to the contract-year phenomenon) – he’s gone from hitting in one of the five best pitcher’s parks to one of the five most favorable hitter’s parks, not to mention the difference in lineups. Beltre has more home runs and RBI compared to last year in 197 fewer at-bats. Of course, improved health has also been an issue, and his current .337 BA is certainly going to drop, but with just one steal, he should increase his SB totals playing for an aggressive Boston team from here on out (they currently rank last in MLB with just 23 steals in 2010, but the Red Sox finished fifth and seventh among SB leaders over the previous two years entering this season). Moreover, despite all the errors, Beltre has still managed a current 6.0 UZR – so he’s easily been one of the more valuable players in all of baseball this season (.385 wOBA, 2.8 WAR).

When the boogeyman goes to sleep, he checks under his bed for Stephen Strasburg.

Staying with the Red Sox, Dustin Pedroia has been an interesting case so far. After winning the MVP in 2008, he wasn’t even considered last season, despite striking out less, walking far more, stealing the same amount of bases and hitting just two fewer homers in nearly 30 fewer at-bats. Of course, the main difference was a drop in SLG% (by nearly 50 points), but Pedroia finished April with an awesome .302/.343/.573 line this year. And then he got hurt in May (while his K:BB ratio improved significantly to 12:16, a damaged knee prevented him from driving the ball). So while Pedroia played in nearly all of Boston’s games, he has clearly been doing so hurt, which suppressed his production significantly. Since so many fantasy competitors are becoming more and more familiar with advanced stats, maybe the next step in getting an edge is somehow identifying who’s playing hurt. That said, Pedroia may be feeling better (although he’s still getting treatment), as he’s hit in seven straight games (with five multi-hit efforts and steals in his last two games over that span). And while Wednesday marked his first homer since May 14, he does have nine long balls with six steals on the year, so while he’s no doubt been a disappointment with a .270 batting average, Pedroia is on pace to finish with 21 homers and 14 steals, so basically, health will determine whether he’s a bust or an extremely valuable fantasy commodity from here on out.

I love this. NBA superstars are no contest (and they are trying their best, believe me) versus “Ricardo” the busboy when it comes to Pop-a-Shot. Here are the losers: LeBron James, Charles Barkley, Kobe Bryant (who’s competitiveness really shows) and also Carmelo Anthony, who might actually be the most mad of all at the outcome, although his nonchalant original attitude is all you need to know about what’s missing from his game.

There’s no question Joe Mauer is tough to evaluate. He went from being one of the better players in baseball to by far the most valuable in 2009, but while he always projected to hit for more power as a big, strong hitter still just 26 years old, what should we really have made of Mauer’s 11 homers in May (and eight long balls in August) from someone who averaged 8.8 homers over his first six seasons in the league? Mauer currently sports an obscene 23:28 K:BB ratio and a .389 OBP while playing strong defense at the most difficult position on the diamond – he’s at least worth strongly considering as the first overall pick in an organizational draft held tomorrow. But in fantasy terms – questions remain. All those walks only help in runs scored, and it’s not like he steals much either. But the biggest question is power – and right now, it looks like last year’s outburst is the anomaly, especially since the new Target Field has suppressed home runs in a big way (of course it’s a small sample size, but so far, it looks like an extreme pitcher’s park). And remember, of Mauer’s 28 homers last season, a whopping 11 were termed “just enough” by hittracker.com, so while he’s no doubt been unlucky this year (4.2% HR/FB), he was due to regress (20.4% FB/HR last year). I love Mauer, but it’s now clear he shouldn’t be considered in the top three rounds in fantasy leagues. That said, this was a pretty sick catch by him.

This has zero to do with sports, but I found this lengthy article fascinating.

I entered this year down on Johan Santana, with a plummeting K rate and coming off surgery. However, whether price enforcing in LABR or pure stupidity in WCOF, I ended up with him on my team in two of my most important leagues. Since joining the Mets, Santana’s ERA has been better than his xFIP by this margin over 2.5 years – 1.36, 1.00 and 1.57. That’s definitely significant, and with a career .286 BABIP and 9.2 HR/FB%, it’s clear Santana needs to be viewed through different colored glasses. Still, this can only go so far, and we are talking about a pitcher with current 5.77 K/9 and 2.93 BB/9 rates (the latter is his worst since 2002); Santana has struck out just one batter in each of his last two outings, totaling only five Ks over his past three starts in total. He’s fanned more than six batters just once all season. Since 2006, his fastball velocity has dropped every season, bottoming out at 89.1 mph this season. However, it’s still not all necessarily doom and gloom. Santana’s heater, changeup and slider all still register as “plus” pitches in 2010, and I’m by no means saying Santana is done being an effective starter (his current tERA is 3.66. His career number there is 3.33), but the trends are more than a little bit discouraging. As crazy as it sounds, Santana’s fastball has averaged just 91.6 mph throughout his career and his current changeup (79.3 mph) leaves an average discrepancy of 9.8 mph, which is pretty good. Not all hope is lost, despite the obvious signs he’s due to crash in a big way.

In closing, I’d like to thank my psychiatrist for helping me write this column. In all seriousness, congratulations to the Lakers. It wasn’t pretty, but Game 7 was pretty epic nevertheless.

By Dalton Del Don

Before we get started, check out my latest attempt at hosting a podcast, featuring Jeff Erickson and Yahoo’s Scott Pianowski.

What more can be said about Stephen Strasburg’s dominant debut? Sure, the Pirates have scored the fewest runs in baseball this season, but I’m pretty sure Strasburg’s stuff will translate well to better lineups. Ubaldo Jimenez is a close second, but it’s not a stretch to call Strasburg’s stuff already the best in baseball, and when you consider his plus command and the fact he gets to pitch in the NL, only his 100-inning limit stops me from ranking him as a top-three fantasy starter right now. But if you prorate a starter who will throw 200 innings this season, that results in around 130 innings from here on out, so Strasburg isn’t THAT far behind if they do indeed shut him down early. The Vegas O/U for strikeouts is 146.5 – factoring in the 100-inning limit, the bookmakers essentially expect his K/9 to be 13.2! Strasburg’s current xFIP is negative (-0.50) – that’s right, negative. I loved this headline. If given a choice for a Game 7 starter in the World Series, Roy Halladay is probably the safest pick, and it’s tough to argue with how Cliff Lee has pitched this season, but it’s really hard not to consider Strasburg one of the three or four best pitchers in MLB already. When all is said and done, he’s going to make LeBron James look like a bust.

What’s going on with Ricky Nolasco? His BABIP, LOB% and HR/FB rates have all normalized after being so unlucky last season, and his control is superb (1.82 BB/9), yet he’s still sitting on a 4.60 ERA thanks to a plummeting strikeout rate (6.54 K/9). In fact, he’s fanned three batters or fewer in six of his last seven starts. Nolasco has lost more than one mph on his fastball this season compared to last, but he’s throwing his slider harder than ever. The sudden and sharp decrease in K% may be something of a fluke, but Nolasco is an extreme fly ball pitcher, so homers will always be an issue, and that’s a serious problem if he doesn’t start missing more bats soon.

He’s no Ernie McCracken, but this guy is pretty good at bowling.

Adam Jones homered Tuesday and stole a base Wednesday, but he’s fast becoming one of the more disappointing players in the league. His OPS is .661, and he sports a 51:8 K:BB ratio over 235 at-bats. A closer look at last year’s numbers suggest maybe we should have seen this coming – he hit .222 after the All-Star break, and while 19 homers over 119 games look impressive, it’s worth noting just how difficult that feat was with his low FB% (28.1) and high groundball rate (55.4%). Jones is hitting more balls in the air this season, but he’s still posting a 1.26 GB/FB ratio, which is a big problem, especially for someone with a LD% of 16.3. And all that athleticism has yet to translate into Jones becoming an above average center fielder, although at age 24, there’s still plenty of time for growth. Nevertheless, Jones’ performance has been quite discouraging so far.

Candlestick has a lot of history, but let’s face it – it’s a dump. So I’m pretty excited about “Measure J” passing Tuesday. Next up, moving the A’s to San Jose.

Jaime Garcia looks like a pretty obvious sell-high candidate, with a nifty 1.47 ERA combined with a .278 BABIP, 85.0 LOB% and 4.4 HR/FB%. His control isn’t even good (3.88 BB/9) and after missing all of last season recovering from TJ surgery, there’s also a big question regarding how many innings he can throw in 2010 as well as a big concern of him wearing down. This is all true (and obviously no one expects him to finish with an ERA below 2.50), but Garcia is not some scrub skating by solely on luck, either. He’s got Dave Duncan on his side, which we may need to start valuing the same way we would an American League pitcher coming to the N.L. Moreover, Garcia is a groundball machine (57.4 GB% is fourth-best in MLB), and while that makes his low BABIP seem all the more fluky, it also suggests when his HR/FB% normalizes he won’t suddenly start giving up a bunch of homers, since he’s allowed the fourth-fewest fly balls (23.9 FB%) in all of baseball this season. Still, Garcia needs to be shopped in fantasy leagues.

Maybe he should have tried 1,007 lbs.

I’m kicking myself for not owning Nick Swisher in any of my leagues, as his ADP was low, and while his BA is sure to come down, the sneaky source of power really shouldn’t be all that surprising. After all, he hit 29 homers in fewer than 500 at-bats last season, and that was with him not even taking advantage of the new Yankee Stadium (just eight HRs at home), which boosted home runs more than any stadium in 2009 (on a side note, while most considered it a huge hitter’s park, Yankee Stadium actually graded out as the 11th best pitcher’s park last year, ahead of even the Oakland Coliseum. However, this year it’s been the No. 1 hitter’s park, just ahead of Coors Field. Maybe the run production will drop over the second half of the season like it did last year, but one thing’s for sure, we really shouldn’t judge its park effects until we get at least three years of data). Swisher strikes out too much to maintain anything close to his current .310 batting average, but as an on base machine now hitting second in a loaded New York lineup, there’s no reason he can’t finish the year as a top-10 or even higher fantasy first baseman (where he’s eligible in most leagues).

Stephen Strasburg called the ending to the “The Sixth Sense” within five minutes.

It’s probably misguided to complain about anything Chris Carpenter, but it’s worth noting he hasn’t struck out more than five batters in a game in more than a month. It looks like his early season spike in K rate wasn’t here to stay, but it’s not worth worrying too much about anyway, since he was one of baseball’s best pitchers last year with a modest strikeout rate (6.73 K/9). He’s already allowed three more homers this season compared to last despite throwing more than 100 fewer innings, but Carpenter has essentially been the same pitcher (3.38 xFIP last year compared to 3.40 xFIP in 2010).

Stephen Strasburg already knows where LeBron James will sign this offseason.

What has gotten into Scott Rolen? His current OPS (.953) is actually the second highest of his 17 year career. He’s getting lucky with balls going over the fence (18.2 HR/FB%), but his BABIP is .286, and his ISO is a ridiculous .304. Maybe this is what a truly 100 percent Rolen can do, even at age 35, but then again, another injury is probably right around the corner. I’m guessing he’d be pretty tough to execute a sell-high though, so might as well ride this story out.

In 2011 fantasy drafts, my guess at Stephen Strasburg’s ADP is around 5.0.

Matt Cain currently has a 2.11 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. That’s accompanied by a modest 2.26:1 K:BB ratio and a 4.50 xFIP. However, this doesn’t necessarily make Cain a sell-high candidate, as he’s proven to be one of the true outliers in baseball. His career xFIP (4.49) is more than a full run higher than his career ERA (3.40). Over that span, his BABIP is .274, and remarkably, his HR/FB% is 6.6, and Cain is approaching 1,000 career innings. His strikeout rate continues to decline, sitting at a career-low 6.43 K/9 this season, but his walk rate is also a career-best (2.85 BB/9). Maybe all those peripherals will eventually catch up to Cain, but at this point, it seems almost silly to suggest a major correction. Of course, I’m not saying his current 2.11 ERA is sustainable, but Cain needs to be viewed through a different spectrum when it comes to evaluating pitchers. For whatever reason, his fastball, despite averaging 92.7 mph throughout his career (and just 91.2 mph this year), is simply one of the hardest pitches to hit in all of baseball.

Seriously, how good is Stephen Strasburg?!

Justin Morneau has always been pretty good, but he’s been the best player in the American League over the first two months this season. It’s hardly surprising for someone to peak at age 29, but his jump in performance has been quite remarkable. His walk rate has spiked (17.9 BB%) greatly; it’s a huge jump compared to his previous high, but this is a trend, as Morneau has increased his BB% in each of the past four years. His 1.148 OPS is the best in baseball by a wide margin. This despite Target Field suppressing homers at a significant rate (third lowest in MLB), as Morneau has hit 11 of his 13 home runs on the road. Having an on base machine like Joe Mauer (who rarely knocks himself in via the HR) hitting right in front of him is a nice advantage as well. Morneau is also playing the best defense of his career this season too. His wOBA is nearly 100 points higher than the year he won the MVP in 2006, and he’s already contributed as many wins to his team through two months than he did during that entire award winning season. Baseball is an unpredictable sport.

By Dalton Del Don

The crazy thing about the Braves now being in first place by 2.5 games is if anything, they are underperforming. Jair Jurrjens and Kenshin Kawakami have combined for zero wins, while Yunel Escobar, Chipper Jones, Brian McCann, Nate McLouth and Melky Cabrera are all playing poorly. Troy Glaus has been a steal in fantasy leagues (he was robbed by Raul Ibanez on Wednesday of his fourth homer in as many games), on pace to finish with 122 RBI, but his .827 OPS isn’t exactly off the charts (although his .366 wOBA is strong). I have no idea what to make of Tim Hudson, as his awful 33:27 K:BB ratio over 70.1 innings certainly isn’t commensurate with his 2.30 ERA and 1.14 WHIP, although he’s obviously capable of pitching much better moving forward. And then there’s Jason Hewyard, who’s made me look foolish when I cautioned his April performance suggested a major correction was soon in store, as the 20-year-old somehow adjusted to major league pitching far better than vice versa. He finished April with 26 strikeouts over 75 at-bats; he’s posted an 11:19 K:BB ratio since then. It appears he may have a future as a baseball player.

Entering May 22, Billy Wagner had five saves. He’s recorded that many since then (including four over the past four games). Wagner has also posted a remarkable 14.08 K/9, but that’s a different story. Jonathan Broxton entered May 7 with one save (and a 1.86 ERA) – he then proceeded to rack up 12 saves over the next 20 games. Maybe this is obvious, but don’t ever view saves as a statistic that’s anything but random.

The chances of Adrian Gonzalez getting traded have gone from pretty likely to almost zero, as the Padres continue to surprise. Gonzalez hit a game-winning grand slam Wednesday, raising San Diego’s record to 32-21 on the year, and while it’s easy to call them a fluke, the Padres can no longer be ignored, especially since they play in such a weak division (and this is from someone who picked them to finish last in the NL West). First, the bad – they still can’t hit (team wOBA of .309 ranks fifth worst in MLB), and it’s unlikely to get much better (although healthy returns of Kyle Blanks and Scott Hairston give little hope). However, the team’s defense has been fantastic (19.2 UZR ranks second only to the Giants), and playing in Petco Park is a big advantage. Think about it – if you took all the over/under odds in baseball this year, Petco would come in with the lowest aggregated number by far, and since baseball has a lot of “luck” involved in single game outcomes, it figures a run here or there sure favors a team in a low scoring environment than a high one. Also, with the best pitcher’s park as well as a terrific defense backing them, Padres pitchers can attack the strike zone with confidence, and their bullpen should be fresher than a rotation that has to deal with Coors Field or Texas in the summer heat. And San Diego’s bullpen is very good on its own merit anyway (Luke Gregerson currently sports a 32:2 K:BB ratio and a 0.45 WHIP). Gun to head, I’d still pick the Rockies to win this division, but Gonzalez and Heath Bell no longer look likely to be traded playing for a surprising Padres team.

If walk-off losses were cool, consider the Diamondbacks Miles Davis.

I was never a big Gavin Floyd guy. He somehow posted a 3.84 ERA and 1.26 WHIP despite a 2.07 K:BB ratio and a 6.32 K/9 mark in 2008. He pitches in an extreme hitter’s park and in the AL, but then again, Floyd also posted a 71:18 K:BB ratio over 77.1 innings after the All-Star break last season, so I bought into the former top prospect at draft tables this year. And so far, it’s been a huge mistake. This guy is killing my teams. A 6.64 ERA and 1.66 WHIP through 11 starts is just brutal. Floyd is actually an interesting case: he’s been unlucky on balls in play (entered Wednesday with a .355 BABIP), but his HR/FB rate has been about league average, and his 49:23 K:BB ratio is hardly impressive. Looking even deeper, while his fastball velocity has slightly increased compared to last year, that pitch has actually been a huge problem throughout his career (-51.9 wFB), yet while his slider was highly effective last year (7.5 wSL), it’s been below average this season (-2.8 wSL) thanks to a significant loss in velocity (2.8 mph slower compared to last season). I’m usually patient with players, especially pitchers, but Floyd isn’t even all that established and frankly, maybe just isn’t all that good.

Nyjer Morgan may go 30/30 this year. And by that I mean 30 stolen bases and 30 caught stealings.

During our podcast Wednesday, Jeff Erickson asked me whom I’d rather have between Alex Rodriguez or Evan Longoria. Few were higher on Longoria than me entering this season – I took him fourth overall in one league and own him in three of my four redraft leagues. And while he’s no doubt been a better player so far (both in real life – .961 OPS vs. .866 – and in fantasy leagues – 10 steals vs. two), I still sided with ARod, thinking Longoria’s superior BA won’t last considering he’s struck out at a greater rate and the fact Rodriguez is still on pace for 125 RBI despite carrying his worst OPS since 1997. But after further evaluation, I might prefer Longo. While ARod hits in the better lineup, and Mark Teixeira is sure to improve, it’s not like Longoria has benefitted from an All-Star No. 3 hitter either, and here’s the crux – Rodriguez has posted a 1.206 OPS with RISP, while Longoria has recorded a .799 OPS during those situations (and yet he somehow has more RBI on the year). So while I fully expect ARod to hit better overall moving forward, and his home park is much more advantageous for hitters, Longoria is 10 years younger, so the best is yet to come, while Rodriguez has most likely already peaked, and if Longo continues to run at this pace (his career SB success rate is now 93%), he’ll easily be the more valuable fantasy commodity this year.

Maybe control prevents Chad Billingsley from being a top-25 fantasy starter over the rest of the season, but he’s also got the upside to be a top-15 type guy as well. During his last four starts, he’s posted a 28:4 K:BB ratio over 27.2 innings. The 11:0 K:BB outing last time out was impressive, but it came against the strikeout prone Diamondbacks, so I’m more impressed with his overall improvement in BB% (of course, a four start sample is obviously small). Still, this is a former top prospect with a strong K rate pitching in a good park and in the NL West, so he’s got some big upside. That said, his velocity readings so far in 2010 are eye-opening; his fastball is down more than five(!) mph compared to last year, sitting at a pedestrian 86.3 mph, and his cutter (89.2 to 82.3) and curveball (78.3 to 72.4) have both suffered even more drastic dips. I could see buying Billingsley right now, but that drop in velocity is pretty concerning and something to pay attention to moving forward.

Alex Gordon is currently batting .376/.515/.733 at Triple-A, and while it may not make sense from a Royals baseball standpoint, he’s actually loving the move to left field (at least according to his quotes). He’s pretty much dominating, also adding nine homers, a 24:24 K:BB ratio and four steals over 101 at-bats. Kaufmann Stadium is actually one of the tougher parks to hit homers for left-handers, but remember Gordon dealt with injuries last season, and while he may never live up to the hype, it’s far too early to give up on the 26-year-old. I’m personally stashing him even in 12-team mixed leagues (of course, bench spots will vary). Don’t give up on him just yet.

Most of the offseason stories (“best shape of my life!”) can be ignored, and a lot of times it’s easy to concentrate on when they don’t pan out (this also works with contract-year supposed motivation), but this type of intangible analysis matters in some instances, and I think Miguel Cabrera qualifies. Sure, one of the best prospects in major league baseball was bound to improve at some point, and there isn’t a better time for that to happen than age 27. Still, he quit drinking altogether during the offseason and rededicated himself to baseball – yes he was born with immense talent, but the fact he decided to try to fully realize it makes me happy as a baseball fan. Maybe the natural progression would have occurred had he continued his previous lifestyle (and believe me, I’m far from a teetotaler), but not all optimistic offseason stories should be ignored, and Cabrera has clearly decided to go ahead and try to live up to those early expectations. His current 1.078 OPS ranks second in all of baseball, and while no one can blame fantasy players for taking guys like Mark Teixeira or Ryan Howard over him this year, there will be no question he’ll be the more deserving draft pick in 2011.

Troy Tulowitzki’s mullet needs to go. That is all.

Last but not least, my opinion on the Armando Galarraga situation: First off, what do we make of the dramatic increase of perfect games this season? (As a Giants fan, I’d also like to point out Jonathan Sanchez essentially threw one last year too, with only an error standing in the way.) Only 18 perfect games had been thrown entering this season, and “essentially” three have been tossed over the first two months (I kind of agree with the argument that over a 106-year span those outings won’t necessarily be distributed equally. But still, three over two months is pretty compelling). When I heard he had a perfecto going into the eighth inning Wednesday, I switched to the game. And while I entered the ninth with lowered expectations (two perfect games already this year alone), the ridiculously awesome catch by Austin Jackson got me officially invested. And the final play (well, it should have been so) has been talked about so much I don’t want to beat a dead horse. So I’ll just say this – can’t think of a crazier response from a sports event in a long time. I mean, what story has evoked so much talk (and emotion) than this? Miguel Cabrera should have just covered first base, yet his effort still resulted in an out. It highlighted just how many things need to go right to get a perfect game even during an unprecedented era of them being completed. I’m not a Tigers fan, yet my first reaction to Jim Joyce’s horrible call was anger. Maybe even strong anger. But his later response– taking all responsibility and saying he didn’t blame any Detroit player for yelling in his face (and Galarraga was not one of those, meaning he’s a better man than me), even stating, “I just cost that kid a perfect game. I thought he beat the throw. I was convinced he beat the throw, until I saw the replay. It was the biggest call of my career.” Love it. Don’t be surprised when Galarraga becomes more famous for this outing than if the last out had been called correctly, and odds are it will invoke new replay rules in major league baseball.

By Dalton Del Don

Fantasy owners who went with a “last year’s bums” strategy and held their nose when drafting Alex Rios are certainly not complaining. After disappointing in Toronto last season, resulting in the Blue Jays giving away his contract to the White Sox, Rios was even worse in Chicago, posting a .199/.229/.301 line over 146 at-bats. But even when dreadful, he still managed 17 homers and 24 steals, remaining plenty useful in fantasy terms. There’s little doubt he’s playing over his head, but Rios is striking out far less frequently than usual, and his current .305 BABIP is actually well below his career mark (.323), so some huge regression isn’t necessarily in store. Ozzie Guillen loves to run, and since Rios has been caught during just three of his 17 SB attempts, a career-high in steals isn’t out of the question. He’s now hitting in a terrific hitter’s park and has recently been moved to the No. 3 spot in the lineup. He’s still just 29 years old, so a 30/30 season can’t be ruled out, and since he’s also fantastic defensively, that contract suddenly doesn’t look so bad.

If it weren’t for bad luck, Mark Prior wouldn’t have any luck at all.

Steve Phillips really outdid himself this week, first writing this piece about plebeians knowing nothing about what it takes to be a baseball GM, and in turn, further proved the point he set out specifically to reject. But that was nothing compared to when Phillips subsequently appeared on the Mike Francesa show and said he’d trade Stephen Strasburg for Roy Oswalt straight up if he were running the Nationals. Oswalt is quietly having a great season, but he’s owed $32 million over the next two years and might retire afterward. Strasburg, meanwhile, has a 0.99 ERA and a 0.71 WHIP with 54 strikeouts over 45.1 innings in Double and Triple-A as a 21-year-old. He’s not only more affordable (four-year deal worth $15.1 million), but he’s going to draw more fans to Washington than Oswalt ever could. Plus, I haven’t hyped him nearly enough recently (did you know Strasburg once visited the Virgin Islands, and since he left they have been called just The Islands? He makes the Dos Equis guy seem dull.) Only $16,000? Seems like a steal to me. For what it’s worth, Baseball America recently ranked Strasburg as the best at-the-time-of-the-draft prospect since 1989 (the year the writer joined BA), and Bryce Harper, who just went 6-for-6 with four homers and 10 RBI in a win Saturday that advanced his team to the NJCAA World Series final, came in at No. 15 on that list. Think the Nationals chose the right time to have the No. 1 pick in back-to-back drafts?

What Elvis Andrus did as a 20-year-old rookie last season suggested he’d eventually become a star, and his play so far as a sophomore has only confirmed that. Andrus is taking a bunch of walks (.402 OBP), giving him plenty of opportunities to use his speed (17 steals already), and while more power would be nice, he’s now hitting atop a strong Rangers’ lineup and in a highly favorable hitter’s park. Add in his terrific defense at shortstop, and Andrus is already one of the more valuable commodities in baseball – both in real life and in fantasy leagues.

Lastings Milledge is still just 25 years old, so he obviously can’t be written off, but at some point, he should be considered a bust until proven otherwise. Given regular at-bats with no pressure to perform in 2010, his current line sits at .264/.331/.338. He’s still searching for his first home run this season, and his career SB rate is an abysmal 66.6%. He’s also awful defensively. Milledge’s biggest criticism throughout his career has been his “character,” but right now, his on-field actions are far more concerning.

It’s tough to separate Buzz Bissinger from his insane appearance on “Costas Now,” but I liked his insight regarding the LeBron James situation. Speaking of which, how crazy is this Delonte West rumor? Is it wrong that I choose to believe it?

David Ortiz is becoming one tough player to gauge. He entered June 6 last season with just one home run on the year. He then proceeded to hit more homers than any other player in baseball from then on. This year he ended April with just one homer and a disgusting .143/.238/.286 slash line. I kept his carcass in my Yahoo! Friends & Family league as my corner infielder for some reason nevertheless, but even the most optimistic Ortiz fan couldn’t have predicted his OPS rising nearly 375 points over the next 19 games. During May, Big Papi has hit nine homers with 23 RBI. He’s still striking out in nearly one third of his at-bats, and he’s worthless against left-handers, but this is another reminder not to write obituaries about players 34 years old. And with his current line at Fenway being so poor (.213/.258/.410), there’s room for even more optimism considering he’s yet to take advantage of a favorable home park for hitter’s. It’s easy to say this now, but random scouting reports like “can’t turn on a fastball…he’s lost his bat speed” are just so anecdotal it’s not worth paying attention to the next time an older player is slumping and that’s the reasoning why.

I recorded a podcast Wednesday, and this was the result.

Over his last four starts, Mat Latos has posted a 0.93 ERA and a decent 0.55 WHIP, with a 25:3 K:BB ratio for good measure. Some poor guy in my home league, let’s call him “Corey,” dropped Latos right before this stretch (I happened to snatch him up), so not only did he miss out on this historical stretch, he also had to deal with Latos’ 5.47 ERA over his first 26.1 innings of the season. This guy might as well quit fantasy baseball, as far as I’m concerned. Anyway, back on topic, in truth, Latos’ dominant four-start span has come against a schedule that’s about as easy as it gets (@Hou, @SF, SF, @Sea), and he’s been pretty lucky so far this year (.240 BABIP, 79.7 LOB%). Still, his control has been great (1.95 BB/9), and he’s really improved his groundball rate, and his current xFIP (3.80) is hardly bad. Latos’ fastball and slider are both plus pitches, and his changeup is quickly developing into one as well. Latos is 22 years old and will experience ups and downs like most young pitchers, but with Petco Park, the NL West and a defense that has performed as well as any team in baseball so far all working to his advantage, he’s more of a “hold” than a “sell-high.” Oh, and definitely don’t drop him. That would be bad.

Max Scherzer has a 17:2 K:BB ratio over 15.0 innings since getting sent down to Triple-A. He needs to be stashed in all but the shallowest leagues.

Brandon Morrow’s 11.7 K/9 rate leads major league baseball by a wide margin. He somehow has a 6.66 ERA and 1.70 WHIP despite this. It’s partially his own fault (his 5.76 BB/9 is third worst in MLB) but also due to some awful luck (his .399 BABIP is second highest in baseball). He entered Wednesday’s start with a fine 3.86 xFIP, so Morrow definitely belongs on the fantasy radar – remember, he was a top-five pick back in 2006 (when Seattle chose him over local product Tim Lincecum). The stuff is clearly there – his average fastball velocity is 93.7 mph and his slider is 87.5 mph – so if he can make even a modest improvement in control and have the luck factor regress, there’s major potential here, although pitching in the AL East sure is difficult.

During a 1-0 game in the ninth inning Saturday, Edgar Renteria “stole” second base with two outs, only the ruling was “fielder’s indifference.” Really, the A’s didn’t care that the tying run moved from first base to second? One of the more curious rulings I’ve ever seen.

Thoughts on the “Lost” finale? I actually loved the final season and most of the last episode, but to me, the conclusion was beyond disappointing. It actually made me kind of mad.

I have no clue what to make of Jose Bautista. As someone approaching 30 years old with a career line of .239/.332/.416, he clearly looks like an obvious “sell-high” call, especially when you consider his unsustainable 22.1% HR/FB rate (career mark is 11.6%). But what makes his case more interesting is the fact Bautista hit 10 homers over the final 30 games last season. In fact, since early September, he leads major league baseball in homers by a wide margin. One could point to his low BABIP (.226) as a sign his BA will shoot up, but really, that’s more of a reflection of how many of his balls in play are leaving the fence. Shopping him still feels like the right move, but in reality, with his track record, my guess is Bautista remains a tough sell, so might as well ride him out and see how this crazy story concludes.

By Dalton Del Don

I apologize for the lack of articles recently, but the RW RB magazine column has dominated my time of late. I posted my preliminary top-12 rankings here, so let me know your thoughts. Anyway, that task is finished, so expect more frequent baseball posts in the future.

It’s hard to complain about Hanley Ramirez. Even if his OPS, while still strong, is about 65 points lower compared to his past three seasons, his contact rate is a career-high, and his BABIP (.303) is well below his career level (.354). But one worry, especially among fantasy owners, has nothing to do with luck, as we are now six weeks into the season, and Ramirez has stolen just three bases on five attempts (after attempting just two steals during September last year). This could prove to be a small sample issue, and while it’s easy to say players typically run less with age, he’s still just 26 years old. His career success rate (76.6 percent) is just OK, and it makes more sense from a baseball standpoint if he continues to attempt fewer stolen bases, and he’s also now hitting in the middle of the lineup instead of atop it, but fantasy owners take note. His value has likely already peaked.

Bobby Valentine sure knows Josh Johnson’s personal life more than most.

So that’s why the Diamondbacks traded Max Scherzer. All along, the deal looked so suspect, the only possible explanation was that the organization had to be convinced he was either hurt or would never last as a starter. While Edwin Jackson has been a huge bust, Ian Kennedy looks like a No. 3 starter (at least in the NL) for years to come. Scherzer, meanwhile, has been a disaster. He’s had an unlucky FB/HR rate and LOB%, but that’s always the case for someone with a 7.29 ERA. The switch to the American League can certainly be partially blamed, but pitchers with a career 9.54 K/9 don’t suddenly start striking out 5.57 batters per nine innings unless something is wrong physically. When Scherzer debuted in 2008, his average fastball velocity was 94.2 mph, and it remained a strong 93.6 mph last season. It’s down to 91.8 mph this year, a significant loss. And we shouldn’t always concentrate on fastballs when looking at velocity, as Scherzer’s best pitch has always been his slider, which has dropped from 85.0 mph in 2009 to 83.4 mph this season. Who knows, maybe it’s all a mechanics issue, but I’m highly concerned it’s more than that.

Dallas Braden is the man. First he screams at Alex Rodriguez for what may or may not have been a violation of an unwritten rule (even retired pitchers are split on this issue), revealing the arrogant ARod side: “Especially from a guy that has a handful of wins in his career…I thought it was pretty funny actually.” “Now, look, I really don’t want to extend his extra 15 minutes of fame.” But those quotes pale in comparison to Braden’s: “I think he’s probably garnered a new respect for the unwritten rules and the people who hold them close to their game. But I think you’re right, we don’t do much talking in the 209.” I only bring up this old news because I actually live in the 209 (which has since been ridiculed b/c it’s best known for Laci Peterson and Chandra Levy). And then Braden proceeded to toss a perfect game! Take that, ARod, New York City and murderers.

Since joining the Rays, Carlos Pena’s batting averages have looked like this: .282, .247, .227 and .180. That’s a trend going in the wrong direction. His K% so far this year is actually slightly better than the past two seasons, and his current .218 BABIP is sure to rise, but since he should be expected to hit about .245 from here on out, another .230ish type season looks to be in store. Because of all that power, guys like Pena (and Adam Dunn) can be plenty valuable with a .260 BA, but in those years when it’s 30 points lower, that power really is mostly negated. And what about his teammate, Ben Zobrist, yet to hit a home run this season? Talk about a player hard to predict…The Rays’ offense has been incredibly lucky this year, getting a majority of their hits in the right situations, but while that’s sure to regress over the rest of the season, they have more than a couple players who are also due to regress in a good way. But you don’t need me to tell you Tampa Bay is one of the two or three best teams in baseball.

I’m not an MMA diehard, but I do follow the sport quite a bit and was relatively shocked at Brett Rogers’ performance Saturday (the loss of the Mohawk had me concerned from the get go). This is a guy whose only loss (and he nearly won) was to Fedor! But frankly, he looked timid, and I really don’t know why. It’s clear Alistair Overeem is no joke, though. My favorite up-and-comer in the sport? Jon “Bones” Jones.

I was at the Giants game Saturday, and the ending was one of the crazier sporting events I’ve been to, and I was at this game and this one and this one. While it didn’t surpass those examples with the stakes far less high, it was a one-run game with the bases loaded in the ninth inning, and the final at-bat lasted a ridiculous 15 pitches, with the last six all coming with a full count. It was a miracle the Giants’ bullpen didn’t blow a Tim Lincecum win for his fourth consecutive start. And since the final out came on a liner caught by Andres Torres, now might be a good time to point out that Torres has somehow amassed a 5.3 UZR over 177.0 innings of defense in the outfield, good for a respectable 62.2 UZR/150. Good riddance, Mark DeRosa (another Brian Sabean special! If you’re counting at home, he handed out not one but two multi-year contracts worth $12 million to pedestrian players not only on the wrong side of 30 during the offseason, but both were currently injured! So far in 2010, those signings have provided a .194/.279/.258 line. You’ve really outdone yourself this time, sir. Bravo).

Do you realize Carlos Marmol has 35 strikeouts over 18.0 innings this season? I mean, wow. His control, while better than last season, is still terrible, but it matters little when missing that many bats (evidenced by his current 1.59 ERA despite a .424 BABIP). That’s a 17.5 K/9 we’re talking about. Crazy stuff. Speaking of crazy, Joel Zumaya has led major league baseball in fastball velocity during all five years of his career, including this season at 99.1 mph. He remains a significant health risk, but what’s truly remarkable is that a pitcher who entered 2010 with a career walk rate of 5.41 BB/9 somehow became a control freak this year (1.52 BB/9). All four of his walks this season have come over his past three appearances, so maybe the start of a correction is in store, but I’d sure love to see what a healthy Zumaya could do over a full season. And for a pitcher with major past injury problems, it’s weird to see manager Jim Leyland use him for more than one inning in 11 appearances already this season – but maybe that’s the Tigers’ new strategy, more rest in between outings, yet higher usage during them. It seems to be working so far.

I wanted to offer a few betting observations (and if you haven’t been reading Joe Sheehan’s daily baseball picks, then you’ve been missing out). My friend Joey, who lives in Las Vegas, deserves credit for the main point I’m going to make, but I’m totally onboard. Anytime you see a line (spread, MLB, O/U) that seems ridiculous – like George Costanza, do the opposite (meaning back the “ridiculous” side). For example, a couple of weeks ago, during a Cubs/Diamondbacks series, the over/under was 14.5 on two of the games. For reference, 99% of baseball over/unders fall somewhere between 7-11.5 runs. Even back in the Coors Field heyday, 14.5 runs would be obscenely high. So Joey hammered the over. And won both of his bets (and both games featured two decent pitchers in Ian Kennedy and Randy Wells. The wind had a lot to do with this, obviously). And yesterday I went to the Giants/Astros game, with the over/under being a ridiculously low 6, so naturally, I was all over the under. Don’t get me wrong, I typically lose money when betting, but it’s worth pointing out if you ever see a line that looks especially crazy, it’s for a reason (remember, even if Vegas thought the true O/U for Saturday’s game featuring Lincecum (with no Pablo Sandoval) vs. Roy Oswalt and the worst offense in baseball was 4.5 (or the like), they would never go there), so back the side that seems “wrong.”

Jered Weaver entered this season with a career ERA of 3.73. However, over his four years in MLB here are his accompanying xFIPs: 4.30, 4.76, 4.28 and 4.48. Clearly, he was due to regress soon, right? The big discrepancy was mostly due to an abnormally low career FB/HR rate (below 8% entering 2010), and I personally believe in these kind of stats wholeheartedly, frequently mentioning them. But guess what Tim Lincecum’s career HR/FB rate is. It’s 6.3%. Of course, his career xFIP is 3.17 (compared to 2.71 ERA), which reveals an elite pitcher even if that were to normalize to league average, but like others (think Carlos Zambrano with BABIP), there are going to be outliers, and maybe Weaver hasn’t thrown enough innings to truly define that, but he surely looks like someone who is tough to homer against (his low rate is especially impressive considering he’s an extreme fly ball pitcher). If you want more proof whether Weaver has more control over this than the average pitcher, consider this: Weaver, who has posted drastic lefty/righty splits throughout his career, entered 2010 with a FB/HR rate of 10.6% vs. southpaws and 5.6% against right-handers (admittedly, this trend has reversed so far in 2010 – 2.9% v. L, 18.2% v. R – but it’s a six-week sample, and his overall rate remains low at 8.8%, which actually qualifies as a career-high). Anyway you want to look at it, Weaver has turned into a star in 2010, as even his xFIP (3.02) ranks fifth-best in baseball. There hasn’t been a drastic change in velocity, but he’s throwing his curveball more than ever, and it’s become a highly effective pitch. His GB% is a career-high (39.1%), and a combination of a 10.41 K/9 with a 2.12 BB/9 is stuff Cy Youngs are made of. The huge increase in K rate over such a small sample suggests he’s probably a sell-high candidate, but there’s little reason to make a deal unless you get a great return. Weaver has proven he can beat expectations – both in the past and even more so this year.

Recorded a podcast Wednesday, so check it out.

Also, I’ve been buried in writing the RB section for the RW Fantasy Football mag, but I promise I’ll pick up the content soon, starting with an article Thursday. Also, if you haven’t already, start following me on Twitter. I’ve found it to be quite cathartic when it comes to Brian Sabean.

By Dalton Del Don

What’s the deal with Grady Sizemore? He looked like baseball’s biggest threat to be the next 40/40 guy as recently as 2008, and while he was a huge bust last year, injuries could mostly explain it, and 18 homers with 13 steals over 436 at-bats wasn’t the end of the world either. Back seemingly healthy, Sizemore is still searching for his first home run of 2010, a span stretching over 95 at-bats. He entered Tuesday on pace to strikeout 156 times this season, which would be a career-high. After being successful on 38 of 43 SB attempts two years ago, he’s been caught on nine of his last 24 attempts since. Sizemore has never hit southpaws well, but if anything, he’s actually regressed in that area. Players simply aren’t supposed to develop this way – remember he’s still just 27 years old. It’s possible Sizemore is shaking off the rust after missing the final month of last season, and again, we are dealing with just one month so far, but he’s been quite a frustrating player to own. Still, I’m buying if possible. Remain patient, don’t go selling him for a Vernon Wells type player.

I like using advanced stats quite a bit, but they don’t always work. For instance, Matt Capps’ xFIP (4.22) right now reveals a huge discrepancy compared to his ERA (0.63). Now, you obviously don’t need me to tell you his ERA is sure to go up, that much is obvious, but I’m trying to make a more general point here. Capps walked five batters (while also allowing three hits) over his first three innings this year, and he didn’t allow a single run over that span. So while he without a doubt got lucky during that time, it doesn’t necessarily mean that will catch up to him since he’s pitched so much better since then (13:1 K:BB ratio). With that said, while I believe Capps can remain a plenty effective closer all season long (although Drew Storen looms), with a fastball that’s currently averaging 93.4 mph and a strong 9.88 K/9 rate, his LOB% (96.4) is the definition of unsustainable, and since he somehow has an MLB-leading 11 saves on a team with 14 wins, Capps is definitely someone worth shopping around in trades. Just don’t hold his early season control problems against him when looking at the big picture.

Austin Jackson entered Tuesday with a whopping eight multi-hit games over his past 10 contests, raising his average 70 points in the process. Suggesting his current BA is going to drop is obvious, but the .376 mark is especially crazy when you note his strikeout rate. Jackson has fanned 34 times over 117 at-bats, putting him on pace to finish with 204 Ks – only one person has ever struck out more than 200 times in a season in MLB history (Mark Reynolds), and of the 10 highest single-season records for strikeouts, only Bobby Bonds was able to break a .300 average, when he hit .302 in 1970 (and almost all others on that list hit .260 or worse). Of course, Jackson is a talented prospect who should adjust, but considering his pedigree and the fact he’s off to such a hot start (leading all of baseball in BA), there aren’t many better “sell-high” candidates right now.

Zack Greinke is one of the three best pitchers in baseball but has yet to record a win this season, which highlights just how ridiculous the stat is. I kind of want him to post a 3.00 xFIP type season and win fewer than five games, just to see how the Cy Young voters would respond. Hopefully, it would finally render such an archaic method of evaluation moot forever (but probably not, unfortunately). The poor guy has to deal with weak run support, a bad bullpen AND a below average defense – it’s the triple whammy. Greinke’s K rate is down some this year compared to last, so he hasn’t been as good, but at least in the early going, he’s countered a small decrease in fastball velocity with a much improved changeup, which makes him quite scary moving forward.

David Wright is such an interesting player. The guy hits just 10 homers last year, yet steals 27 bases (as a third baseman) and posts a .307 batting average – this despite striking out more than ever thanks to an MLB-high .400 BABIP. This year, the power has returned, and he’s also running more than ever. Wright has also posted by far his worst contact rate (.66) of his career, making last year’s spike in Ks look downright timid. Then again, his BB% (.19) is also a career-best and by a wide margin. His current .370 BABIP remains high, but take note his career mark is .350, so a major collapse isn’t necessarily in the cards. Put it all together, his current .422 wOBA is the best of his career, so despite all the strikeouts, he’s basically playing at a higher level than ever before. Wright has hit far better on the road (1.036 OPS, four homers) compared to home (.882 OPS, one HR), so maybe Citi Field is still in his head, but fantasy owners have to be highly encouraged so far.

I’ve never been a big Jorge Cantu fan in fantasy leagues, but frankly, it’s been to my detriment. He has a career .784 OPS and is well below average defensively, but so what? He consistently hits cleanup, so RBI opportunities are abound. Moreover, he has a better chance of driving in those runs because of his inability to walk much – that’s actually a plus in fantasy terms. While he still managed 100 RBI last season, it’s pretty clear he was playing through a debilitating ankle injury, so a return to his 2008 type power (when he hit 29 homers) can’t be ruled out in 2010. Cantu has obviously played a bit over his head so far, but there’s no glaring reason to sell him at this point. Enjoy elite RBI production from someone who likely didn’t cost all that much at draft tables.

Speed round: Jonathan Sanchez could very well end up with the worst BB/9 rate and the best K/9 rate in MLB…I’m even more jealous of Ubaldo Jimenez owners than anyone who’s dated Kaley Cuoco…Will Venable needs to be owned in all deep leagues. His BA is ugly, and he has the disadvantage of playing in Petco Park, but a 20/25 type campaign can’t be ruled out either…Interesting middle relievers worth monitoring (or owning, depending on format): Carlos Villanueva (18:6 K:BB ratio over 14.0 innings, although when it comes to the Brewers’ pen, if Trevor Hoffman continues to struggle, look for LaTroy Hawkins to close), Joel Hanrahan (ugly ERA but 12 Ks over 8.1 innings. He and Evan Meek need to be watched should Octavio Dotel continue to falter or get hurt), Clay Hensley (21 Ks over 13.2 innings) and Joel Zumaya (averaging a major league high 98.8 mph with his fastball with an 18:0 K:BB ratio! Although if you’re looking for a possible closer should Jose Valverde go down, it’s worth noting Ryan Perry has been used in much higher leverage situations so far this season, so he’d likely be the first ninth inning replacement, but it’s still cool to see the pitcher with the highest ever recorded fastball (at 104 mph, and my boy Stephen Strasburg is No. 2 on that list, and he’s a starter!) finally live up to that potential).

I’ve always been a Kelly Johnson fan, but who could have seen this coming? He already has more homers this year (nine) in 89 at-bats than he did all of last season (eight) in 303 ABs. He’s hitting in a highly favorable environment, is locked in at the top of the Diamondbacks’ lineup now and is also capable of stealing bases, so while Johnson is clearly due to regress, he’s not some must-sell candidate either. Even if the Braves were convinced Martin Prado was the answer at second base, why give up on Johnson with such a void in left field? And do you realize Brian Sabean signed a hurt Freddy Sanchez for two years, $11 million when Johnson (one-year, $2.35 million) was readily available? Fantasy owners should just sit back and enjoy one of the bigger steals of their drafts.

For NL-only leaguers: Scott Olsen is firmly back on the radar. I had given up on him myself, but his poor start to the season (10 runs allowed over his first two starts) can be excused since he was recovering from offseason surgery on his labrum. It’s pretty clear he’s been pitching with a damaged shoulder for the past few years, and if the surgery truly corrected the problem, remember, this is a former highly regarded prospect who posted an 8.3 K/9 rate as a rookie. Sure, that was way back in 2006, and Olsen is more likely to disappoint yet again this season than finally reach his potential, but he has struck out 18 batters over 20.2 innings so far, and his fastball velocity is up but more importantly, his slider’s velocity is way up (81.3 mph), which is great news considering how often he throws it. It’s just a two-start sample, and he’s only truly been impressive in one outing this season, but Olsen could prove valuable in NL-only (or extremely deep mixed) leagues.

While Olsen is league-specific, Brett Cecil is a pitcher worth adding in pretty much all formats right now (and is likely long gone in your league). As a 23-year-old pitching in the AL East (and not on one of the big-three teams), odds are plenty of growing pains are in store, but still, a 21:4 K:BB ratio over 20.2 innings is quite impressive. Yes, more balls in play will fall in for hits in the future, but a 9.15 K/9 combined with a 1.74 BB/9 are rates typically only produced by true aces. Not that he’ll get there anytime soon, but Cecil has certainly proven himself worthy of an add to at least see what’s next to come.

I highly touted Brett Gardner before the season started, and I say this not to brag, but rather to further illustrate my frustration with him ending up on zero of my own fantasy teams. What was I thinking? His batting average (.346) is sure to drop, but with a 9:10 K:BB ratio, his plate discipline suggests a steep decline isn’t necessarily a sure thing, and with Curtis Granderson out at least a month with a groin injury, any worry about playing time (which didn’t even truly exist in the first place) is delayed. Gardner already has 12 steals (while getting caught just once), and in that Yankee lineup, 60 RBI and 100-plus runs can’t be ruled out. Nor can 60-plus steals. It’s crazy thinking about how much earlier guys like Carl Crawford and Jacoby Ellsbury went before him. If a draft were held today, Gardner would have to be considered a top-15 fantasy outfielder, right?

By Dalton Del Don

I’d try to buy low on Gavin Floyd, if possible. Of course, no one is giving him away after just three starts, but he’s not some established star, either. The 14 strikeouts over 13.0 innings are encouraging, but there’s no doubt his control has been way off. Still, Floyd has now recorded a 76:66 K:BB ratio throughout his career in April, so maybe he’s simply a slow starter. This is a pitcher who posted a 71:18 K:BB ratio (with a 3.49 ERA and 1.11 WHIP) after the All-Star break last season. His current BABIP (.456) is the highest in all of baseball by a wide margin, and his average fastball velocity (92.1 mph) this year is actually the highest of his career. He’s someone to target. (And coming off another poor start Tuesday following a dreadful second half last season, I also like going ugly and seeing how hard it would be to pry Chad Billingsley from his owner).

The big suspension announcement Tuesday turned out to be much ado about nothing. I mean, I guess he loses a paycheck, but Edinson Volquez will be serving that suspension while on the disabled list recovering from Tommy John surgery. Now that’s one pretty big loophole missed in the CBA. And it’s funny the substance turned out to be a fertility drug to help him “start a family.”

For some reason, I didn’t trust Shin-Soo Choo at draft tables this year, and it appears I made a big mistake not grabbing him in any of my leagues. I apparently needed him to prove it again, and while it’s not easy to hit .300 while striking out more than 150 times (like he did last season), Choo posted a .946 OPS over 317 at-bats in 2008 as well, and he’s just now entering his prime. Of course, he’s been playing out of his mind so far at unsustainable levels, but Choo’s walk rate is also way up, and while the BA will inevitably fall, he’s posted a remarkable .367 BABIP throughout his career. He’s also been successful on 24 of his past 26 SB attempts, so there’s no reason for him to stop running. If Choo isn’t a top-10 fantasy outfielder, he’s awfully close. I’d prefer him to the current version of Ichiro Suzuki (whose LD% had dropped four straight seasons entering this year), that’s for sure.

In the Giants/Padres game Monday, the umps ruled a ball that bounced off the warning track a home run. I’m not kidding. Thank you, instant replay.

Chad Qualls has blown each of his past two save opportunities and has allowed at least one run over his last three appearances, but I wouldn’t push the panic button just yet. There’s some concern he eventually gets traded if the Diamondbacks are out of playoff contention come July, but Juan Gutierrez (9.00 ERA), Bob Howry (10.38 ERA) and Aaron Heilman (7.11 ERA) have all pitched poorly as well, so Qualls’ leash hasn’t even tightened that much, and it’s not like he lacked job security to begin with. Remember, he posted a ridiculous 6.4:1 K:BB ratio last season, and one of his blown saves this year was a result of this throw by Stephen Drew. Qualls should be fine.

Donald Trump is the funniest man on television. Hands down. That is all.

Rafael Furcal will never be as valuable of a fantasy player as he once was, but it’s encouraging to see him attempt seven steals (and be successful on six of them) already this season. Entering 2010, he had stolen just 21 bases over his past 909 plate appearances over the past two years (including the postseason). Furcal has yet to homer, and his BA is artificially high thanks to an inflated BABIP (.372), but his LD% is a career-high (26.2), and he’s also showing good plate discipline (6:7 K:BB ratio), so maybe he’s not quite done being useful after three straight disappointing campaigns. Considering his ADP – he looks like a bargain right now.

I’m beginning to think the Tim Wakefield/Victor Martinez battery won’t be good at holding baserunners this year – the Rangers went 9-for-9 in SB attempts over six innings against them Tuesday.

Rich Harden is having quite an interesting start to the season, as his K rate (10.13/9) is elite yet his BB rate (9.45/9) is the worst in major league baseball. Of course, it’s a three-start sample, so those numbers (especially the walks) are sure to normalize, but for those owners upset by his 4.72 ERA, realize his xFIP is an astronomical 6.72 (thanks in part to a .261 BABIP) – so it actually could be much worse. Harden is obviously in a tougher environment for pitching this season with the Rangers, and it’s so early this could all ultimately prove meaningless, but it’s worth noting his velocity is way down, as he’s averaged just 90.1 mph with his fastball this season compared to 92.1 last year, which is significant. It’s possible to survive as a starter being a two-pitch pitcher (fastball/changeup), which Harden has been for a few years now, but he’s leaving himself very little margin for error.

Please tell me All-Star voting doesn’t really start two weeks into the season? Are you kidding me? That’s as ludicrous as FX cancelling “Damages.” Or the comments here regarding Scott Stapp’s song about the Marlins.

Justin Verlander has a 6.88 ERA over his first three starts, which looks even worse when you consider all have come against offenses generally considered weak in the AL (Royals, Indians, Mariners). His K rate (7.94/9), while fine, is also significantly down compared to last season (10.09/9). But there’s not a whole lot to worry about here, as Verlander has recorded ERAs of 6.60 and 6.75 during each of the past two Aprils, so slow starts are nothing new to him. I personally shied away from Verlander at draft tables this year since he threw 3,937 pitches last season, more than 300 more than the next most in MLB, and he also led the league in “stress” pitches, but his early struggles over just three starts is hardly any validation there. His average fastball velocity is exactly the same as last year (95.6 mph), which is the highest in the American League and second in the majors only to Ubaldo Jimenez. Moreover, Verlander’s LOB% currently sits at a ridiculous 49.5, which is easily the lowest in the AL. To put that into perspective, the lowest LOB% in the majors last season was 61.0 (Ricky Nolasco), so he’s been quite unlucky. Verlander’s current 4.04 xFIP is a much better representation of how he’s pitched so far than his ERA suggests. He should be fine, health permitting (I only say that because the caveat here may be more pertinent than most pitchers, considering last year’s high workload).

I realize 264 at-bats is a small sample, and hey, his K rate (while still awful) is down compared to last year, but at what point do we give up on Brandon Wood? I mean, I’m sure he could hit 20 homers if given 600 at-bats, but his career line in the majors is now .178/.210/.280. Ugly stuff. I’d certainly feel safer owning Maicer Izturis at this point.

Last week I included Jason Heyward as a possible sell-high candidate, which seemed to produce the most feedback from the commenters (at least in the Yahoo version), so I figure I’d elaborate. Don’t get me wrong, I obviously think he’s going to be a terrific player and probably have one of the better seasons ever by someone his age (at 20 years old, that’s not a particularly high bar to clear). Just realize he entered Tuesday with a .727 BA with RISP, which led MLB. His HR/FB% (50.0!) also led the majors. And this is someone who is hitting the ball on the ground (55.6 GB%) more than in the air. And he has a .417 BABIP. I like his ability to take a walk, but Heyward is also on pace to finish with 216 strikeouts, which would be the second highest in MLB history. And I’m not even getting into the scouting aspect – with more tape, his susceptibility (and weakness) for breaking pitches should only become exasperated. Again, I love the guy (by all accounts, he’s apparently a great human being), and I’m not advocating giving him away – he’ll definitely be an asset in fantasy leagues this year. But my reasoning is that this is someone with an early profile of a sell-high anyway, and considering Heyward is a prospect that’s been one of the most hyped in recent memory (and the legend has grown with a home run during his first ML at-bat, a walk-off single Monday and a game-tying homer with two outs in the ninth inning Tuesday. He’s also tied with Ted Williams for the most RBI (16) over the first 13 games by someone under 21 years old) – he should bring in a real nice return right now in a deal (and if I’m wrong in that last assessment, then don’t trade him).

Placido Polanco entered Tuesday on pace to finish with just 27 strikeouts this season. Considering he doesn’t walk all that much and now plays in the easier league and in a park that’s pretty favorable for hitters, he could be quite the asset in batting average. He hasn’t been very durable throughout his career, but if he somehow manages to stay healthy, there’s also a chance Polanco leads the National League in runs scored in 2010.

This is a pretty cool story.

What if I told you the pitcher with the second highest strikeout rate (12.1/9) in all of baseball also has a 7.45 ERA and 1.86 WHIP? That pitcher is Carlos Zambrano, and while he hasn’t been a help in WHIP since 2005, since he always walks too many batters, this is someone who shouldn’t be written off, despite the mileage on his arm, some recent signs of real decline over the past couple of years and an outing earlier this season in which he surrendered eight runs over 1.1 innings. Zambrano has probably been the unluckiest pitcher in MLB so far in 2010 (.437 BABIP, 58 LOB%, 28.6% HR/FB). That high BABIP number is especially worth pointing out, since Zambrano is one of the rare pitchers in baseball who has consistently kept that number below the league average throughout his career (.281). Better control would obviously help, but his fastball velocity has remained constant over the past four years, and his huge spike in K rate dates back to last season, when he fanned 9.4/9 after the All-Star break. Zambrano’s xFIP currently sits at 3.68, which is a huge discrepancy compared to his ERA. He’s once again quite an interesting fantasy property.

By Dalton Del Don

The first couple weeks of the season are my least favorite time to write about baseball. During March, it’s easy to speculate on any player and how they’ll perform in the upcoming year. And in May, there’s at least some information worth using to examine how the season is going. But in the early going, there’s really not much even worth discussing. You’ll hear everyone talk about the “small sample” problem right now, but this can’t be underestimated. What’s happened so far in the 2010 season is absolutely worthless and shouldn’t change the opinions you had before Opening Day. Well, except for two cases: injuries and role changes, and the latter mostly comes down to closers. But other than that, treat (ignore) the 30 at-bat or two-start samples like you would in mid-July and don’t let the fact they happen to have occurred at the beginning of the season cloud your judgment.

If others disagree with this notion, here are guys I’d be targeting in trades: Jay Bruce, Elvis Andrus, Grady Sizemore, Julio Borbon, Jon Lester, Yovani Gallardo, Ricky Nolasco and Jake Peavy. I’d also be selling: Scott Podsednik, Vernon Wells, Jason Heyward, Max Scherzer and Fausto Carmona.

In my high stakes league (WCOF), with a $200,000 grand prize, the three closers I drafted were Frank Francisco, Mike Gonzalez and Jason Frasor, which hasn’t been a good thing over the first 10 days of the season. Normally, I typically either wait longer to address the position or punt closers altogether at the draft table, but you simply can’t ignore a category in a league like this – where there’s no trading allowed and you are competing against multiple leagues for the grand prize (punting isn’t an option). But the early returns have hardly changed my original stance, to say the least. And it’s not like I targeted that trio, but rather, I let the draft dictate whom I’d grab at the “closer” position. And all three of these guys actually entered with strong career peripherals, but the worst week for a closer to struggle is the first one, and even if they pitch up to their capability the rest of the way, if their role is changed (i.e., what inning the manager decides to use them), their fantasy value changes irreparably. Forget how ridiculous it is to judge a reliever based on 70 inning sample sizes – imagine doing so over 1.5 weeks: Did they enter with a one-run or three-run lead? What stadiums have they pitched in so far? Was it the bottom of the order or the middle due up when they were summoned? I hate drafting closers. I guess Mariano Rivera should be treated like a top-40 fantasy player, since he’s just so much safer as a contributor in saves (not to mention the other three cats) than any other player in baseball.

Regarding Mike Gonzalez, he hasn’t looked right since spring training, with his velocity way down. I’d stash Koji Uehara if possible – he’s a sleeper to rack up saves this season.

If closers have been the most maddening position to start the season, catchers are a close second. I’ve personally installed a Chris Iannetta/Miguel Olivo platoon in my daily leagues, but that does little good for those with smaller rosters or in weekly formats. And even Iannetta owners think people who drafted Mike Napoli are getting screwed. And I haven’t mentioned Miguel Montero’s injury yet. Unless it’s a 12-team league with a 1-C slot, Chris Snyder needs to be added; he’ll be a fine replacement for those who suffered Montero’s loss (and while he doesn’t possess as much upside and will likely hurt your BA, in a way, he might even be a better option, since he’s looking at a greater percentage of starts than Montero was). I still say Desmond Jennings is the best position player to stash right now, but Carlos Santana is a close second.

I know complaining about Joe Morgan’s commentary is a little like criticizing Bill Simmons – everyone’s done it, and it’s getting old because it’s such an easy target. But I must indulge here. During ESPN’s Sunday night telecast, Morgan argued Ryan Ludwick was a terrible choice to bat second in the Cardinals’ lineup – this in itself isn’t completely unreasonable, as Ludwick has a career OBP of .340. But Morgan’s reasoning is that a No. 2 hitter should forgo power for the willingness to move the leadoff runner over when need be. This obviously makes less sense considering Albert Pujols follows in the order, which means two things: advancing the leadoff hitter one station means the best hitter in the game will be less likely to see hittable pitches, and it also ignores the fact Ludwick will see more fastballs in this spot. According to pitch type (via Fangraphs), Ludwick was well above average against fastballs last year (12.5 wFB) and was the fifth-best hitter in all of baseball versus heaters in 2008 (34.9 wFB). But my criticism of Morgan – expecting him to realize these things – is obviously quite unreasonable. No, what really got me was when Ludwick took a walk during this situation (runner on second, no outs), Morgan considered this a bad outcome, stating a bunt (or groundout to second, presumably) would have been better. Unbelievable. Where’s FJM when we need them? (Actually, “Parks and Recreation” has become so good, I can forgive Michael Schur).

While I’ve preached how ridiculous it is to look at stats over the 2010 season, it’s worth noting some are better than others, and what happens before the ball is put into play (which puts luck far more into the equation) is a little more worthwhile. To wit, Pablo Sandoval’s early plate appearances have been highly encouraging. Sure, his current BA is certain to come down, but here is his O-Swing% (percentage of pitches a batter swings at outside the strike zone) over the past three years, with the last one being 2010: 53.8%, 41.5%, 38.3%. Here is his Z-Swing% (percentage of pitches a batter swings at inside the strike zone) over that span: 76.9%, 82.9%, 84.6%. Put simply – he’s swinging at fewer pitches outside the strike zone and swinging at more pitches inside the zone. Of course, his former approach has led to a career .336/.385/.548 line, so it’s hard to argue against it. Still, his strikeouts are way down in the early going this year, which has to have fantasy owners salivating for someone with a career .356 BABIP. Panda has just one long ball on the year and has the disadvantage of playing in a park that suppresses homers as well as hitting in one of the worst lineups in all of baseball, but no one should be surprised if he’s one of the three best hitters in the National League in 2010. Pretty impressive for someone who’s fat, a switch-hitter equally good from both sides, just 23 years old and went undrafted.

Sticking with the Giants – Tim Lincecum gave up a homer at home Sunday for the first time since 2008. That’s pretty crazy. Additionally, the team’s leadoff hitter (Aaron Rowand) has zero walks over 40 at-bats this season.

Sticking with O-Swing% – Colby Rasmus has gone from 25.9% his rookie year to 8.6% so far this season, which is a huge improvement. He had a 95:36 K:BB ratio over 474 at-bats in 2009, while this year it’s 5:9. He’s also already attempted half as many SB attempts in 140 fewer games. This is all highly encouraging, to say the least. A major breakout looks to be in store.

If you lose a first round pick in fantasy football, it’s much more crushing than losing an early round pick in fantasy baseball, since it’s so much deeper. But I’m sorry, this needs to be said: baseball players are a bunch of wussies (and by wussies I mean pussies) to the point of pathetic. Please just look over the litany of hurt players over the first 10 days. What a joke. Easily my least favorite aspect of participating in fantasy sports.

If you’re a believer in karma: Milton Bradley entered Tuesday as the only player in baseball with a .000 BABIP (this further validates you shouldn’t draft Ben Rapistberger on your fantasy football team this year).

Ozzie Guillen is a great quote, but he’s already asked his second (or third) best hitter (Gordon Beckham) to sacrifice bunt twice this season. That’s not a sound decision. Even more egregious, how did he let current MLB stolen base leader Scott Podsednik get away?!

It sure sounds like Jacoby Ellsbury’s injury isn’t serious, but I’m adding Jeremy Hermida in any league he’s available in regardless. Mike Cameron and J.D. Drew are both injury risks, and DH at-bats may also open up if David Ortiz keeps performing like he has so far (although I’m still not sold on his demise). Hermida hasn’t come close to reaching his expectations as a former No. 11 overall pick, and he’s now entering the more difficult league, but consider this: his career OPS on the road (.822) is more than 100 points higher than at home (.721), so Land Shark Stadium (what an awful name) has really taken a toll on his numbers, which is especially encouraging since he’s now playing in a highly favorable park for hitters. He’ll hit lower in the lineup, but it’s obviously far superior to the Florida one he’s accustomed to, so only playing time stands in the way of Hermida being a serious fantasy contributor. If you’re in a daily league where you can use him when he starts (and exclusively against righties), you should get top-25ish type production from an outfielder during those times.